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Faith in Place

Faith in Place. Illinois Interfaith Power & Light. A Challenge to Faith The Energy Depletion Reality. Faith in Place. Oil & Natural Gas Supply. When will they peak ? Where are reserves located? How does it affect us? What are our options ?. Consuming 125 Million Years of Oil.

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Faith in Place

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  1. Faith in Place Illinois Interfaith Power & Light A Challenge to Faith The Energy Depletion Reality Faith in Place

  2. Oil & Natural Gas Supply • When will they peak? • Where are reserves located? • How does it affect us? • What are our options?

  3. Consuming 125 Million Years of Oil • Bump in the line above represents • the 100 years when most of the world’s oil was consumed Sources: Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth Deffeyes, Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 6. And US DOE Energy Information Agency http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html

  4. Consuming 125 Million Years of Oil • Extend the line 5 miles to the left for the time it took to create the oil • 125 million years • At 2001 Global Consumption Rate • Oil consumed each daytook 4800 years to create Sources: Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth Deffeyes, Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 6. And US DOE Energy Information Agency http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html

  5. Our Current Lifestyles • World Energy Usage • Critically dependent on oil & natural gas • Food Production • Home Heating • Transportation Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics 2003 (1 Mtoe = 11,630 GWh)

  6. Early 1960s • Oil discoveries peaked 80 60 Billions of Oil-Equivalent Barrels 40 20 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Source: Harry Longwell, Exxon Mobile, “The future of the oil and gas industry: past approaches, new challenges,” World Energy 5(3), 2002

  7. The North Sea’s Oil Depletion Zittel, W, 2001 "Analysis of the UK oil production". L-B-SystemTechnik www.energiekrise.de/e/articles/Analysis_of_UK_oil_production.pdf

  8. Oil Production Peaking Soon Source: Bruce Robinson, Australia’s Oil Vulnerability, citing: ASPO Statistical Review of Oil and Gas, Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Uppsala, Sweeden, 23-25 May, 2002. Edited by K. Aleklett and C. Campbell, www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002, See Also Campbell & Laherrere, “The End of Cheap Oil,” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78-83.

  9. 1979 – Per Capita Global Oil Production Peaked Peak 1979 6.0 3.0 0.0 Production Per Capita (B/c/yr) 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 (Years) Source: World Energy Production, Population Growth, And the Road to the Olduvai Gorge, Richard C. Duncan, As published in Population and Environment, May-June 2001, v. 22, n. 5;See also: Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological Society of America, Summit 2000 in Reno, Nevada on November 13, 2000

  10. Evolution: Oil Reserves by Region 1982 Proven Reserves2002 Proven Reserves Africa 9% Asia/ Pacific 6% Asia/ Pacific 4% Africa 7% Middle East 66% Middle East 54% N. America 14% N. America 5% S. & Cent. America 4% S. & Cent. America 9% Europe & Eurasia 13% Europe & Eurasia 9% Middle East Includes: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait Source: BP (British Petroleum) statistical review of world energy 2003 -http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/downloads/index.asp

  11. If all the people in the world … • Enjoyed a standard of living and energy consumption rates similar to that of the of average American, AND … • The world’spopulation continued to grow at a rate of 1.5% … The world’s fossil fuel reserves would last about 15 years

  12. How long can US oil consumption increase? World Production Data Source: US DOE Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2003 (Solid lines = estimates. World Production fit based on 2 trillion barrels ultimately recoverable. )

  13. The problem we are facing is … We must reduce our demand for nonrenewable gas and oil until it reaches ZERO.

  14. The problem we are facing is … • The economy of consumption is not the economy that any of our faiths proclaim • The change that is required is on a scale that can only be described as religious

  15. How does it affect us? • Food • Shelter • Transportation • Consumer Goods

  16. Soil erosion on cropland 5 tons/year/acre in U.S. 12 tons/year/acre Worldwide. 3000 years to recover 6 inches of topsoil Land degradation alone expected to reduce food production 15% - 30% by 2020 We are compensating by using oil and gas When oil and gas are gone - how to grow food? We are using fossil fuel to compensate for worldwide soil loss and degradation Food Source: David Pimentel et. Al., “Will limits of the Earth’s resources control human numbers?” Cornell University, 1999.

  17.  U.S. Food Production Efficiency 20 10 5.0 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.02 1960 1970 1950 1940 1930 1920 Calories of Energy Input for 1 Calorie of Food Output 1910 Source: Energy Use in the US Food System, John Steinhart and Carol Steinhart, Science, 1974, pp. 307-316

  18. Median size of a new home built in the U.S. 1949: 1,100 sq. ft. 1970: 1,385 sq. ft 1996: 1,950 sq. ft. Household size in the U.S. 1970: 3.14 persons per household 1995: 2.65 persons per household Shelter in the U.S. Source: All Consuming Passion, Third Edition, 1998, New Road Map Foundation and Northwest Environment Watch.

  19. Transportation 25.04 quads 27% Industrial 35.43 quads 38% Residential & Commercial 33.74 quads 36% TOTAL 94.21 quads EIA Annual Energy Review 1998 (published January 2000)    Transportation: 27% U.S. Energy U.S. Consumptionin 1997by Sector Source: http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/energy/stats_

  20. Consumer Goods: Wasting Energy Source: EPA, “Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the U.S.: 1998 Update, as reported by the GrassRoots Recycling Network

  21. Our Options Demand Growth Efficiency Transport Mode Shifts Price/Taxes City Design Lifestyle Other Fuels Deprivation After: Swenson, R., 1998 "Alternative Futures for Humanity, the Swenson Curve" www.hubbertpeak.com/scenario.htm (Gboe = Billion Barrel Oil Equivalent)

  22. Two Great Responsibilities • All Faiths share a sense of two great responsibilities • That we love one another • That we care for Creation • What does this tell us about our options in the world?

  23. Ramp up coal & nuclear To compensate for reduced availability of oil & natural gas Continue to increase consumption And … Add small amounts of renewables to U.S. energy supply Very slowly Includes wind, solar, biomass, & geothermal Present Energy Plan

  24. Problem 1. Pollution, Short-term Solutions Massive increases in pollution and nuclear waste (5 -15 times present amts / year) Very limited term solution … Domino Effect 14 years 17 years 41 years Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear 17 years Then What??

  25. Problem 2. Climate Change Top solid line: measured temperatures Dashed lines: Natl Ctr for Atmospheric Research model resultsRed x is 2002 average global temperature. 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 grams CO2 per kW-hr Coal: 890-975 Wind: 5 – 22 Global Mean Temperature Anomaly ( ºC) x 1870 1930 1990 2050 2110 (Year) Sources: The Crowded Greenhouse, John Firor and Judeth Jacobsen, Yale University Press, 2002, World Nuclear Association, Energy Analysis of Power Systems, February 2003 http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf11.htm

  26. Alternative: Switch Once … to Renewables Oil Gas Renewables Wind, Solar, Biomass Energy Coal Phase it out Time Use the remaining oil and gas to help switch the infrastructure to renewables. A switch to renewables will be much more difficult if we exhaust oil and gas first.

  27. Faith in Place Programs • Illinois Interfaith Power & Light • Food of Faith • Youth Stewardship Programming • Local Interfaith Sustainability Circles • Earth Stewardship Education

  28. Illinois Interfaith Power & Light • The Religious Community must lead the demand for development of renewable energy locally • Illinois Interfaith Power & Light does this through • Aggregating congregational demand for locally produced wind power • Providing guidance through workshops on energy conservation

  29. Food of Faith • We must consume food that is grown with minimal energy inputs • We must create new supply mechanisms and product lines for food that is locally- and sustainably produced, good to the earth and to people • Food of Faith is doing this with TAQWA Eco~Foods, Harvest of Hope Winter Farmers Markets, & other programs

  30. From the Ground Up • We must teach these values to our children • A need for youth programming for congregations • An urban agriculture program • Helps young people understand natural systems and God’s care • Vermicomposting, beekeeping, & community gardening to a better world

  31. Contact • For more info on Faith in Place and its programs • Rev. Clare Butterfield, Director • 773-278-4800, ext. 125 • clare@faithinplace.org

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