Causal Layered Analysis

1. Causal Layered Analysis A brief explanation with examples Dr. Wendy L. Schultz

2. From superficial to subtle:the five layers of CLA Identifying and analysing: • “Litany” • “Causes” • “Worldview” • “Myth/Metaphor” …resulting in changed behavior (layer five).

3. ID & Monitor Change Critique Implications Imagine Difference Envision Preferred Plan and Create Change Identify, analyze, and articulate images of preferred futures, or ’visions.’ Identify patterns of change: trends in chosen variables, changes in cycles, and emerging issues of change, or ’scanning.’ Examine primary, secondary, tertiary impacts; inequities in impacts; differential access, etc. Identify, analyze, and build alternative images of the future, or ’scenarios.’ Identify stakeholders, resources; clarify goals; design strategies; organize action: create change. Foresight: 5 key activities. …CLA contributes most to critique, but in changing deep perspectives and mental structures, offers new insights and approaches to the other four as well.

4. CLA’s five layers and the “five key activities” of FS: • Litany = identifying change. • Causes = systems analysis / critique. • Worldview = critique >> scenarios. • Myth/Metaphor = old vision to new. • …creating open space for new behaviors, goals, plans = planning, implementing, creating change.

5. Time Scale of Change The “Litany”: official public description of issue observational: events, trends, diagnosed problems, media spin, opinions, policy; visible and audible; unconnected (scanning) Problem Continuous Social Science Analysis: Short-term historical facts start connecting; systems analysis, feedback interconnections, technical explanations, social analysis, policy analysis (systems) Causes Social, Economic, Cultural Years Discourse Analysis: culture, values, language, postmodernisms, spiral dynamics memes (alternatives) Worldview Decades Myth/Metaphor Analysis: Jungian archetypes, ancient bedrock stories, gut level responses, emotional responses, visual images - may not be words for it (visioning) Metaphors and Myths Societal/Civilizational Sources: R. Slaughter, “Integral Operating System” World Future Society, July 2003, drawing on Sohail Inayatullah; Dennis List, “3 Maps of the Future,” July 18, 2003; Andy Hines, UH-Clear Lake, 2006.

6. Definition: events, trends, problems, “word on the street,” media spin, official positions. Example: Marriage. Climbing divorce rate; More single parent & “blended” families; More cross-cultural, cross-church, & alternative marriages; More commuting marriages. Litany: official public description of the issue

7. Definition: structures, interrelationships, systems, policy analysis, technical explanations, role of the state and interest groups. Example: Marriage. Fragmentation of communities; Wedding (party) no longer linked to marriage (commitment); AIDS epidemic >> monogamy = safety. Causes: social science and systems analysis

8. Definition: culture, values, paradigms / mental models how language frames / constrains the issue. Example: Marriage. Be fruitful -- and be sanctified; Purity, commitment, monogamy, fidelity, childrearing; Double standards; “Old man/lady;” “breadwinner” and “home-maker”, etc. . Worldview

9. Definition: collective archetypes, gut/emotional responses, visual images. Example: Marriage. Adam and Eve; The Great Mother; American Gothic; Someone for everyone -- but only one; Cake - dance - ring; Security vs. fear of commitment. Myth/Metaphor

10. Using CLA to create alternative scenarios / visions: Analyse down, identifying alternative litanies, causes, worldviews, and myths: create change by choosing alternatives as you surface. CHANGE! Identify the litany: current conditions & events. Analyze the causes: interrelationships, systems. Explore the worldview: values and cultural icons. Unveil the myths/metaphors: archetypes, emotions.

11. E.g., Futures for Marriage • From “one on one” to Heinlein’s linear or clan marriages; • From “cake-dance-ring” to digital candy - SecondLife celebration - embedded ID chip; • From American Gothic to the Beckhams -- celebrity couples.

12. Trend to Value Added Hydrocarbon Cleaning Solvents c. 1930’s Perchloroethylene c. 1950’s Cleaning Services c. 2001 • Safetainer • recycle • provide expertise • nonflammable • good vapor properties • neighborhood cleaners • flammable • dangerous Dematerialization: From Pounds to Sense More and more of the value of products will come from the information content rather than the physical content. The key is to capture the value of that information content. An example of applying CLA at Dow Chemical. First, the scanning team identified eight discontinuities, or confluences of trends pointing in the same direction, that they thought were significant for Dow: TREND IT1: More consumers and businesses are embracing e-commerce. TREND M1: Materials are becoming smarter. TREND EC12: Commoditization is happening faster and faster. TREND EC10: New economic measures will emerge to reflect socially desirable goals, such as environmental quality. TREND EC11: New models are emerging to explain the "new economy." TREND EN2: Products are being increasingly designed for re-use. TREND P5: "Global management" of global-scale issues is emerging. Case study courtesy Andy Hines, from Dow Chemical

13. Examples of Myths: • The American Dream (liberty + democracy = prosperity) • The Earth was made for man (Ishmael) • Perfect Information (Adam Smith) • Grow or die (for business) • The market rules • The goal of the corporation is to maximize return to shareholders. • Full employment is a desirable goal • Education is an economic investment • Horatio Alger • If you don’t play, you can’t win Case study courtesy Andy Hines, from Dow Chemical

14. CLA of “Dematerialization” Prices of commodities continue to fall Specialties converting to commodity status faster Fewer “dumb” customers as information sharing becomes easier Rise of buyer coops rise of internet auctions and E-commerce exchanges More rapid outsourcing to lower costs Rising capabilities of automation Drive to lighter products to encourage energy efficiency & less resource use, e.g., Hypercar) Problem Social Causes While a problem for those in businesses being commoditized, good news for consumers Drives the economy/business to continuously innovate and move to higher value-added products -- provides jobs for developing world Could see rise of monopsony -- monopoly of buyers Growth of highly educated employees requiring high-tech jobs and high value-added products Sustainability driving towards conversation and re-use in the affluent world Resource prices remain cheap until right before the run out (Lilly pond effect) This is a long-term trend of more know-how going into products Greater understanding of systems and use of lifecycle analysis Worldview Myth being challenged is infinite resources and techno-fix Confronting the Earth was made for man (Ishmael) Confronting short-term thinking The Adam Smith “perfect information” metaphor coming into being and challenging those who benefited from imperfect information We must grow! Myth/metaphor Case study courtesy Andy Hines, from Dow Chemical

15. Implications of Dematerialization • Selling by the pound will be increasingly less profitable • Products with high raw materials cost be very difficult to make money with - search for alternative feedstocks • Emphasis on functionality provided • Work with customer on emphasizing the knowledge content • Sharing value-added to incentivize customers • Monetize previously “free” services • Move to service-based models, leasing, licensing, e.g., Dow’s Safety-Kleen, Interfaces Evergreen Lease • Need for continuous innovation Case study courtesy Andy Hines, from Dow Chemical

16. CLA Exercise: • Pick an issue, e.g., security in global tourism. • Brainstorm each level separately and talk about it: • Brainstorm on sticky note pads • Cluster like items into themes • Identify gaps and needs for research (optional) • Once you get to the bottom, create a scenario by choosing an alternative myth and working back up through the layers, brainstorming the logically consistent contents for each layer until you reach a new set of events and behaviours comprising the litany.

17. Definition: events, trends, problems, “word on the street,” media spin, official positions. Example: security in global tourism. 47 kidnappings of tourists in Kuwait; More restrictions on conditions of travel; Increased use of biometric IDs; More security checks; Explosions in Sharm El Sheikh; Government advice on safety; Increased public perception of insecurity; Shifting “comparative advantage” of perceived secure destinations. Litany: public descriptions

18. Definition: structures, interrelationships, systems, policy analysis, technical explanations, role of the state and interest groups. Example: security in global tourism. Tourists as currency (trade for infrastructure improvements); Media attention to security incidents; Rapid reallocation of financial resources to security; Local hostility due to negative social and environmental impacts of tourism. Causes: social science and systems analysis

19. Definition: culture, values, Paradigms / mental models how language frames / constrains the issue. Example: security in global tourism. Tourists bring challenges to our values; State responsible for our security; Environmental consciousness; Terrorists/-ism is MAD and BAD -- not freedom fighters but criminals; Terrorism a global issue; Militarisation of many nations. Worldview

20. Definition: collective archetypes, Gut / emotional responses, visual images. Example: security in global tourism. “White hats vs black hats” - good -bad seen as dichotomy; “Rucksacks with wires” - portable chaos; Destination seen as “dangerous territory” or “dark territory” -unknown seen as dangerous; Civilised vs. exotic; exotic = not civilised; Fear (caused by ignorance) of other; “Adventure has risks”. Myth/Metaphor

21. Alternative future: security in global tourism. New events, behaviours: Visitors - ‘pilgrims’ -assigned local hosts, guides, & interpreters. Move from the myth of risky adventures in exotic unknown lands peopled by dangerous strangers… New systems: Local support structures embedding visitors in local life, local systems. Alternate myths and values generate new operating assumptions and creative solutions. New worldviews / values: Travel = education = benefits; diversity & difference celebrated. New myths: The sacred pilgrimage; the other as teacher and guide. …to the myth of a joint pilgrimage of learning embedded within a local network of experts sharing their unique environment.