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Update on 2007 AQMP

Update on 2007 AQMP. January 10, 2007 AQMP Advisory Group Meeting. Current Activities. Finalizing modeling analysis, control strategies and attainment demonstration Responding to comments on draft 2007 AQMP (40 comment letters) Preparing CEQA and Socio-Economic Analysis

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Update on 2007 AQMP

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  1. Update on 2007 AQMP January 10, 2007 AQMP Advisory Group Meeting

  2. Current Activities • Finalizing modeling analysis, control strategies and attainment demonstration • Responding to comments on draft 2007 AQMP (40 comment letters) • Preparing CEQA and Socio-Economic Analysis • Revisions to AQMP’s main document and appendices

  3. Topics • Impact of Revised Inventory/Modeling • CARB’s Proposed Strategy • Potential Policy Issues

  4. Impact of Revised Inventory and Modeling on Carrying Capacity • PM2.5 • Small Changes • 8-Hour Ozone • Higher VOC/NOx reductions needed in future years • Combined VOC/NOx strategy not as effective as NOx-heavy controls • Model under-prediction in base year

  5. Initial Peer Review Comments • 2005 VMT blip not reasonable • Sensitivity analysis for 2002 and future years recommended • Base year VOC emissions still may be under-estimated

  6. CARB’s Proposed Strategy(2014 commitment)

  7. Summary of Issues

  8. VMT Analyses Final 2007 AQMP?? Current CARB Proposal Draft 2007 AQMP SCAG Projections

  9. PM2.5 Attainment Demonstration

  10. Ozone Attainment Strategy Draft Plan Draft Final? Black Box Black Box 45% (290 tpd) 30% (175 tpd) Total Reductions = 586 tpd Total Reductions = 640 tpd Alternative NOx-Heavy Scenario Black Box 33% (170 tpd) Total Reductions = 523 tpd

  11. Plan Submittal • CARB Staff Considering • Bifurcation of Ozone and PM2.5 Plans • PM2.5 Plan not due Until April, 2008 • Additional Time for Resolving Issues • AQMD Staff Recommendation • Integrated Ozone/PM2.5 Plan Most Appropriate • Potential Lost Opportunity for Rule Development in 2007-2008

  12. Next Steps • Policy Paper – January 2007 • CARB Statewide Strategy and Attainment Demonstration – late January 2007 • Final Draft AQMP – late Jan to mid -Feb 2007 • Additional Public Workshops – Feb - Mar 2007 • Regional Hearings – April 2007 • Adoption Hearing – April - May 2007 • CARB Hearing – May 2007 • Submittal to U.S. EPA – June 2007

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