Grand Challenges in Water Management

1. Grand Challenges in Water Management With a little help from our friends

2. Grand challenges outline • The central question • The varied answers • My take • What it means for us over the next two days

3. The Central Question • How can our efforts improve water management outcomes? • The goal of this workshop is to figure out as a community the most effective way to improve our chances of improving water management and then start doing that. • Starter definition: better water management means better outcomes, faster with lower transaction costs. • Can you picture that? Because if we don’t know where we’re headed, we probably won’t get there.

4. Faster cheaper Better What we asked • Imagine it's the year 2030 and imagine water being managed in the U.S. about as well as we can expect in a large, complicated democracy. Imagine that water is used efficiently for the purposes that are most valuable to the public, including economic services and environmental restoration or conservation. • Imagine stalemates and disputes at a minimum. • How did this happen? What were the key and necessary changes that allowed water management in the U.S. to progress so much in 20 years?

5. M. Gordon “Reds” Wolman M. Gordon “Reds” Wolman A faculty member since 1958, Reds chaired the Department of Geography from 1958 to 1968, has twice served as the University’s interim provost, and chaired the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering from 1970 to 1990. Reds is internationally known for his research on how rivers and other surface water systems evolve and modify the landscape and the relative roles of human and natural forces in shaping the land and waters. His research provided the basis for much current water quality management and public policy

6. M. Gordon “Reds” Wolman 1. Acknowledgement of need to share water and development of approaches facilitating the process including equity and not just economic efficiency. (Your important focus?) 2. Real recognition that water quantity is inseparable from water quality leading to very widespread re-use at all scales of size and space. This entails continuous technologic improvements in membrane and other technologies, better management, and identification of pathogens along with evaluation of the hazards they pose to humans and ecology. Doubt that these are new entries. Thanks for asking.

7. Jay Lund is a Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at U Cal Davis. He is on the editorial board of several water resources publications and has served as Convener of the California Water and Environment Modeling Forum (CWEMF). His principal research interest is in the application of systems analysis, economic, and management methods to infrastructure and public works problems. He has led development and application a large-scale optimization modeling for California's water supply. He has been involved in optimization modeling of other major river systems, including the Columbia River system, the Missouri River system, South Florida, the US Southeast, and the Panama Canal. Jay Lund is also interested in integrated urban water supply planning and management, water transfers and markets and economic design and evaluation of stormwater quality management

8. My off-the-cuff answer would be: "... and then I woke up.“ But I should also give a more serious answer. Water issues have ALWAYS been contentious, at least for any system I have ever seen or read the history of, unless there was a sort of freakish group-think or authoritarianism involved (which while making decisions less contentious did not make better decisions). Empirically and theoretically, I think there is something to be said for the value of having considerable decentralization in water management - and this implies some level of disputes and contention.

9. For many of our systems, the problem is protracted paralysis. Stakeholders and political interests and individuals have dug themselves in so deep that only profound disasters can shake them into real and serious thought about the problem and solutions. Even then, some will retain their positions and opposition to change, as long as they benefit from the status quo or are more fearful of change than even a deteriorating status quo. disaster

10. The approach we have taken to this problem, which easily defeats most consensus processes, is to provide a well-respected, broad, readable and well-publicized, independent in-depth analysis of the problem. The analysis highlights the unsustainability of the current solution, in graphic terms, and a range of solutions. The analysis also then compares the major broad solution strategies (fewer than 10) on a very few major objectives (1-3 objectives) to eliminate unpromising strategies and identify promising strategies. Analyze ahead of time disaster

11. Only very small numbers of strategies and objectives can be considered without exceeding the "infiltration capacity" of the public, policy, media, and professional audiences. The general idea is to shake up the public discussion, get people out of their trenches, and get them to see the problem in a new and more transparent way. We have had some success in this for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, but in the end the status quo has immense inertia. I do not see any one right way to do water planning. Different approaches work better (or are more promising) for different problems. The skills of available practitioners should be considered as part of the problem. I hope this helps. Interesting question. Jay Any approach to such wicked problems is probably doomed to failure. Our approach is probably no exception.

12. Gene Stakhiv et Doug Cuthbert, codirecteurs de l'Étude, suivent une discussion lors d'une rencontre à Akwesasne, NY. Doug Cuthbert, Chair, Halton-Hamilton Source Protection Committee Biography Doug Cuthbert is currently engaged in the Ontario Drinking Water Source Protection Program as Chair of the Halton-Hamilton Source Protection Committee. During his career with the federal government as an engineer and science manager Doug chaired many Canada-US water boards and study committees for the International Joint Commission.

13. I definitely believe that there should be water management boards organized on watershed and sub-watershed bases, charged with the management responsibilities and decision processes relevant to their mandate and jurisdictions. These management boards can be regionally representative, politically accountable in general terms, but autonomous in that they would be empowered and mandated to make best management decisions within specific time deadlines – and not be subject to legal recourse. Analyze ahead of time disaster Basin organizations

14. Legislation must be in place to back up the mandates of these management boards and to assure that affected agencies would implement board decisions – with funding provided from affected and benefiting communities. That is a challenge and a mouthful!! Management decisions must be science based and weigh economic, environmental and social aspects of the issues both equally and equitably. Finally, we need to recognize and accept that values and decisions will change with passing time, that errors, oversights and omissions in judgment will occur, but progress forward must be made in incremental steps to resolve overarching problems in the long term. May we have the strength of our convictions, the patience of our mothers, and the perseverance of Job to attain our goals!

15. Dr. Kai Lee joined the David & Lucile Packard Foundation in June 2007 as program officer with the Conservation and Science program, where he is responsible for the science subprogram.  Before joining the Foundation, Kai taught at Williams College from 1991 through 2007, and he is now the Rosenburg Professor of Environmental Studies, emeritus. He directed the Center for Environmental Studies at Williams from 1991–1998 and 2001–2002. Lee also taught from 1973 to 1991 at the University of Washington in Seattle. He holds a Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University and an A.B., magna cum laude, in physics, from Columbia University. He is the author of Compass and Gyroscope (1993) and coauthor of the National Research Council study, Our Common Journey (1999).  He is a National Associate of the National Research Council.  He is a member of the National Academies Roundtable on Science and Technology for a Sustainability Transition, and served most recently as vice-chair of the National Academies panel that wrote Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (2009). Earlier, Lee had been a White House Fellow and represented the state of Washington as a member of the Northwest Power Planning Council.  He was appointed in 2009 to the Science Advisory Board of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Kai Lee

16. Here is a sketch of a proper reply on what would be needed between now & 2030: 1.Crises (e.g., Atlanta water supply, southern Louisiana river control, California Bay Delta, Columbia River dams, Everglades, upper Missouri flooding, and climate change impacts everywhere) in enough regions of the nation, occurring simultaneously to raise a national awareness of how broken things are now.  It would be very helpful if these crises were to occur in states and congressional districts where positive leadership might be motivated. Analyze ahead of time disaster Basin organizations Contact Georgia Governor Kai Lee

18. 2. Willingness of Republican and Democratic politicians to collaborate on water policy beyond pork-barrel.  May well be influenced by 2010 and 2012 elections. 3. Shift in government funding to take more realistic account of infrastructure needs.  Changes that affected transportation, energy, and water simultaneously (perhaps stemming from a workable fiscal solution to health care) would be helpful.  This amounts to a renegotiation of the value proposition of government, so I don’t think it would arise from a deliberate political initiative, short of Obama triumphing in a way that seemed unrealistic in January, let alone now. Analyze ahead of time disaster Basin organizations Contact Georgia Governor Parties work together Infrastructure/health care Kai Lee

19. You know who you are

20. 4. Willingness of state and local governments to work with federal agencies, major stakeholders, and each other.  Water issues collide with traditional imperatives for economic growth, of course.  So a prolonged economic downturn (longer than the one we are suffering through now)might be seen as an enabling historical circumstance, were it to happen.  By 2030 we will have a far different geopolitical world in which to operate, too (China, India, probably Russia, maybe the EU), and that is sure to bring a different view of economic growth in the way it is now conceived at the local level (e.g., with respect to water-intensive economic activities). Analyze ahead of time disaster Basin organizations Contact Georgia Governor Parties work together Infrastructure/health care Kai Lee

21. The number of registered lobbyists in Washington has more than doubled since 2000 to more than 34,750 while the amount that lobbyists charge their new clients has increased by as much as 100 percent 5. Better functioning decision support links among sub-national decision-makers (private and public sector), operating agencies such as the Corps and the Metropolitan Water District, and the scientific community.  An orderly response to climate change might frame this element.  (See report attached.)  This element is, sadly, the only one I see within the control of you and your colleagues—necessary but far from sufficient. Cheers, Kai Analyze ahead of time disaster Basin organizations Contact Georgia Governor Parties work together Infrastructure/health care Do our stuff, but better Black humor Kai Lee

22. Analyze ahead of time disaster Basin organizations  Great question.  If we reach the utopian state you describe, two (related) things will likely have happened.  First, water management will have been successfully recast from a  supply-management focus to a demand-management focus.  Demand management must be the future of water management.   Contact Georgia Governor Demand management Parties work together Infrastructure/health care Do our stuff, but better Doug Kenney

23. repaired  Second, and related to the first, is that the economics of water must be fixed.  If the price of water reflected its scarcity and its public (systemic) values, then problems of misallocation and misuse can be resolved.  Of course, this response only raises a larger, more fundamental question: how do these types of reforms occur? 

24. Analyze ahead of time disaster Basin organizations • I’m not entirely sure, but I think the most viable mechanism involving buying off those parties working so hard to defend the current system.  • The other key (probably) is public education.  As long as water development officials and status quo proponents are allowed to frame the public discourse about water issues, we’ll have no real movement. Contact Georgia Governor Parties work together Infrastructure/health care Do our stuff, but better Demand management Real pricing Mitigate losses from gains Public education

25. the key point is that the future you describe does not emerge from a technological fix; it is the product of change of a political, cultural and economic nature --- a change in paradigm.  • And the leadership quite likely won’t come from the existing “water professional community,” but from people more interested in questions of economic development, national/regional security, and real sustainability.  

26. Hope that helps a bit! The classic theory of collective action predicts no one will change behavior and reduce their energy use unless an external authority imposes enforceable rules that change the incentives. The seeds of this type of change now exist in the energy sector --- we can learn from that.  What gave the “new energy economy” some momentum was a spike in gas prices that highlighted the fundamental flaws of the status quo.  People notice prices. An expert on the governance of common-pool resources, Elinor Ostrom says averting massive climate change is a classic collective-action dilemma: Millions of actors affect the global atmosphere. All benefit from reduced greenhouse gas emissions, but they benefit whether or not they pay any of the costs.

27. Gary Wockner grew up along the banks of a muddy river in Central Illinois where he ran wild and was often late for both dinner and supper. After dropping out of college three times, Gary moved to Colorado in 1985 and continued to run wild in the mountains along the Front Range. Gary finally finished college (9-year plan), and went on to earn masters and doctorate degrees from CU-Boulder. Gary currently works as a consultant to scientific and environmental organizations where he advocates for his personal passions which are: Howling wolves, free-flowing rivers, roadless forests. Ecologically and economically sustainable communities. Educational programs that get kids out of the normal classroom and into real-world learning experiences.

28. Gary has written numerous articles for newspapers and magazines, as well as several books. In 2006, Gary won the Colorado Book Award for Comeback Wolves, and was nominated for the award in 2008 for Pulse of the River. In 2007 and 2008, Gary won the "Friend of the Poudre" award for his efforts at saving the Poudre River. His advocacy work includes sitting on the boards of literary, conservation, and educational organizations. Analyze ahead of time disaster Basin organizations Contact Georgia Governor Redistribution of power Parties work together Infrastructure/health care Do our stuff, but better Demand management Real pricing Mitigate losses from gains I've been chewing on this all weekend. Here's what I've come up with:1.Population Stabilization -- unless the U.S. population stabilizes, conflict over water and all natural resources will continue to escalate.2.Externality Pricing -- the cost of water that consumers pay must equal the true cost to the environment of extracting that water.3. Riparian Democracy -- an equal voice must be given to citizens who want to keep water clean and rivers healthy, versus the status quo that does not. Public education

29. William Lord Ph.D., University of Michigan, 1964; Professor Emeritus; Environmental and Natural Resource Economics. Dr. Lord is a former director of the Center for Natural Resource Policy Studies and Programs at the University of Wisconsin and of the Water Resources Research Center at The University of Arizona. He specializes in environmental and natural resource economics, institutional economics, and public policy analysis. He holds advanced degrees in agricultural economics, forestry, and a Ph.D. in natural resource economics from the University of Michigan. His experience includes research in the U.S. Forest Service and policy analysis for the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works. He has worked abroad for Resources for the Future (in Mexico) and the United Nations (in Afghanistan), U.S. AID (Bulgaria, Chile, Hungary, Romania, and Slovokia), and the World Bank (Tanzania). His research projects include the analysis of alternative natural resource management institutions.

30. I suppose that none of us actually expects this to happen (history is on our side), and most of us would say that nothing that planners might be able to do could turn that around. There are underlying structural elements, both in human behavior and in American political and economic institutions, which planners alone cannot change. The current health care debate illustrates this point. It isn't hard, from an analytical perspective, to specify the broad outlines of a health care system which, while imperfect, would be a huge improvement over what we have now. But we would have to get rid of insurance companies, employer-financed health insurance, pay-for-service reimbursement of providers, and unlimited malpractice liability, as well as convincing the public that they cannot have every treatment option that science has devised. So, you can't get there from here, and planners and economists can't make it happen. And so? Like Atlanta, Alabama, and Florida, we're stuck. Things will just have to get unacceptably worse before a solution can be enacted. Forgive an old man's pessimism. Redistribution of power Analyze ahead of time disaster Basin organizations Contact Georgia Governor Parties work together Infrastructure/health care Do our stuff, but better Demand management Real pricing Mitigate losses from gains Public education

31. Len Shabman joined the Virginia Tech faculty in 1972 and became the director of the Virginia Water Resources Research Center (on a half time basis) in 1995. He owns a cabin on the Chesapeake Bay and enjoys sailing, fishing, and other water's-edge activities. His teaching responsibility includes courses in resource and environmental economics and in research methodology. His present research work stresses the use of market incentives in environmental management. Policy studies include water supply, water quality, and flood hazard management, large scale river restoration, fishery management, public investment analysis, and the role of economists in public policy formulation. He has published numerous professional articles and reports on these topics. Because of his commitment to translating research findings into public policy decisions, he has served as an advisor to federal, state, and local government agencies on a wide variety of resource issues. Recently, he has served as a member on the National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council Committees on the Restoration of Aquatic Ecosystems, on Flood Control Alternatives for the American River (California), on Watershed Management and on Water Research.

32. Abstracts from Len’s AWRA talk Redistribution of power • Adapting Water Resources Management to the Uncertain Prospects of Climate Change – September 24, 2009 • We must diagnose and treat gridlock • We must ABANDON the notion of stopping big structural projects – they’ve been stopped for 30 years but they are more relevant now and need to be considered, not rejected out of hand. • We should ABANDON some places – New Orleans, for example. • We should ABANDON the notion that resetting hydrology to the “natural” is the right thing to do – we need a more honest and competent debate about what our environmental objectives and values are and we need to measure outcomes. Analyze ahead of time disaster Redistribution of power Basin organizations Contact Georgia Governor Analyze ahead of time disaster Parties work together Basin organizations Contact Georgia Governor Infrastructure/health care Parties work together Do our stuff, but better Demand management Infrastructure/health care Real pricing Do our stuff, but better Demand management Mitigate losses from gains Real pricing Public education Mitigate losses from gains Treat gridlock Public education Abandon non-structural only Abandon some places Abandon 20th century natural Reds: integrate WS+WQ

33. The list Redistribution of power Disaster Analyze ahead of time Basin Organizations Contact Sonny Perdue Dems+Rep work together Invest in infrastructure Do our stuff better Demand management Real Pricing Mitigate losses from gains Public education Treat Gridlock Abandon: Anti-structure Some places 20th century = natural Integrate quality and quantity

34. The list Redistribution of power Disaster Analyze ahead of time Basin Organizations Contact Sonny Perdue Dems+Rep work together Invest in infrastructure Do our stuff better Demand management Real Pricing Mitigate losses from gains Public education Treat Gridlock Abandon: Anti-structure Some places 20th century = natural Integrate quality and quantity

35. OK, I get it, we are not worthy • Instead of optimists and pessimists, think about Kai Lee’s necessary but not sufficient • Kai and Bill Lord and others said bluntly that we will not be the agents of change in water management, that such things are stubbornly resistant to change • But disasters can provide a small window of opportunity for a “an external authority” to “impose enforceable rules that change the incentives”

36. Kai did say we were necessary • If the time comes that people are ready to resolve Atlanta’s water problems, or address the flooding and water supply and quality issues in the Sacramento, there will still be the technical problems of finding good solutions and there will still be conflicts to manage.

37. Three response levels, first, us • Because we are necessary, we have an obligation to improve our methods (I’ll talk about collaborative modeling in a bit, this afternoon Eva Opitz will report on state planning and Jim Creighton will talk about a new process guide on SVP from IWR • Gail will talk about how to tailor process to problem in a few minutes • Stacy will talk about measuring success this afternoon – how can we know we are improving our methods if we can’t measure? • Disaster + Analyze ahead of time →New idea

38. Three response levels, first, us • An overlooked “product” of our work is the creation of a community of experts, decision makers and stakeholders who have been trained in systems analysis • We have to think of these communities as “sleeper cells” inside conflicted basins with all the systems analysis tools in place, including trained managers, waiting for disaster and opportunity. • Here’s the hard part – individuals move on - we have to think about how to sustain this knowledge despite that until opportunity strikes.

39. Three response levels, 2nd, our agencies • You can influence a larger group, but who, how, when? • The Corps could offer “fast track” 404 water supply permitting that required collaborative planning, with a decision made by an arbiter. • The Corps could conduct regional water supply studies in high 404 areas. If a reservoir was built, the water supply could be sold, recovering all costs. • Gerry Galloway is going to talk about institutions in a few minutes.

40. Three response levels, 3rd, society • The public sets the broad agenda for infrastructure investment and environmental law, and they participate in our studies • From missile gaps to death panels, • politicians create fear then prosper from it • Democracy is a sham if citizens are ignorant • Suggestion: Virtual disasters • Suggestion: We need to produce educational videos that explain how natural resources decisions are made and make them available for undergraduate courses, even high schools. (Megan Rivera will talk about education this afternoon)