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NELAP: Skills and Labour Market Change ‘think piece’. Linda McDowell Professor of Human Geography University of Oxford Seminar at CURDS 14 Jan. 2013 Linda.mcdowell@geog.ox.ac.uk. Aim of this paper. To stimulate debate
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NELAP: Skills and Labour Market Change ‘think piece’ Linda McDowell Professor of Human Geography University of Oxford Seminar at CURDS 14 Jan. 2013 Linda.mcdowell@geog.ox.ac.uk
Aim of this paper • To stimulate debate • To provide examples from elsewhere (especially northern Europe) that may have relevance to the NE • Important proviso: I am not an expert on the locality
Connections to other work Important to place this piece into the wider debate as clear connections between • the different thematic areas • the statistical information being collected by several teams
National and Regional Context • Decline of manufacturing • Rise of service sector • Polarisation of employment (conditions, skills and income) • Hi tech and hi touch • Significance of public sector employment, especially for women • Policies of the Coalition Government
Dual policy aims • To enhance the acquisition of skills by workers and encourage updating • To improve the number and quality of jobs (and related to this provide routes into more demanding and better paid forms of employment)
NE compared to GB averages • The possession of skills and educational credentials lower, • labour market participation rates for both men and women lower • self employment lower • unemployment higher • the percentage in Higher Education lower, • the percentage of managers, professionals, associate professionals and technical employees lower, correspondingly employment in caring, leisure, and is sales higher (mainly women), as it is in process, plant and machine operators and elementary occupations higher (mainly men). E • employment in administration, secretarial and skilled trades is similar to the national average. JSA claims are higher, especially for men. • The sectoral distribution remains slightly different from the national pattern. 12.2% in manufacturing compared to 10.2% in GB, and services are 81.5% of all employees in North Eastern region compared to 83.5% in GB. E • Employment in finance and IT (the key sector in the so-called knowledge economy) is lower (16.9% cf 22.0%), • Public administration, health and education is higher (32.5 cf 27.9%).e
Job density • Ratio of jobs to working age population below national average and so more job seekers chasing each vacancy
Skills mismatch: some theoretical explanations • Market inefficiencies • Lags in adjustment to changing conditions • High wages in public sector discourage entrepreneurship/private sector growth • Spatial mismatches • Explanations often too aggregate (local labour markets often discrete and vary considerably one from another) and too dependent on notion of rational decision making and perfect information (though no doubt that scope for improvements in information quality and availability)
And so • It is crucial to build on the detailed local knowledge of the North East labour markets among service providers and employers, to establish a sound statistical basis of regional economic indicators, to undertake careful research-based evaluation and monitoring of initiatives and to rely on common sense.
Regional strengths and advantages • Strength of the automotive sector, especially productive and ‘flexible’ labour force • Health: highly rated hospitals and good research base • Excellent HE: four universities with different and complementary missions • Environment: hills, coast, low levels of pollution in many localities • Housing costs are below UK average • Arts and culture: Sage, Baltic Centre etc (although proposed budget cut by Newcastle and general cuts to Arts Budget in England by £11.6m by 2014/15 affecting local galleries and regional theatres) etc) • Access to north and western Europe: good air and sea links
Disadvantages • Few outstanding state schools: no schools in the top 40 in England and Wales • Low level of educational credentials and other skills: whereas in south east and south west the population with degrees outnumber those with no credentials in the North East the ration is0.84 (the lowest in the country: Census 2011) • Lower than average wages (although may also be an advantage • Branch plant economy • Heavy reliance on public sector employment (effects of austerity) but also relatively immune to productivity gains • Higher than national average unemployment • Youth worklessness and high proportion of NEETS • Lower than average labour market participation by women • Geographical location in the country: distance from decisions makers and key markets • Accessibility, and transport costs within region, especially its large rural hinterland • Brain drain of young and highly skilled from the region
Need for a statement of principles? • clear values: lifelong learning, protecting people not jobs, and the importance of active labour market policies. What might a UK/ England and Wales approach include: making work pay, enhancing active citizenship though labour market participation for all those who are able to? • Pro-employment policies :future-focused (how attract and enhance private sector employment, how support public sector, what might future mix look like?). • Politics of budget-balancing and labour market reform were attached to a broader vision, the fight against unemployment is a national project. (A statement about fighting unemployment seems relevant at present when however many policies are adopted to improve skill levels, if unemployment remains high, the outlook is grim. A statement about sharing work more equitably(across groups in the population, across sectors, across working week/year?) might also be useful?) • To something like these aims, it might be appropriate to add a statement about regional equality, reducing the north-south divide, and spatial differences within the NELEP, etc.
Key aims: aspirations and images Two pronged approach to raise aspirations and to challenge stereotypical images of the NE Key objectives include: • To raise aspirations: school/subject choices, staying on rates. • To improve schools and FE colleges: transition from school, building on key regional skills, attracting more adults into education. • To meet the future skills needs of region’s employers, including medium to long term as well as immediate needs; to identify sectors with greatest potential for sustained economic growth. • To increase employer and employee investment in skills training. • To enhance skills service provision, encouraging cooperation between services; improving information and ‘matching’ jobs and individuals; mechanisms for tracking skill needs, improving evidence base, research and skills modelling. • To facilitate labour market entry: increasing knowledge base, skills. • To increase high quality apprenticeships, and vocational training. • To address the gender gap in participation, and release women’s potential perhaps through special courses aimed at women. ( omen have a key role in labour market, family and community) • To meet the needs of older men and to encourage younger men into ‘atypical’ forms of employment. • To address the particular problem of young people who are NEET.
Key objectives cont. • To raise aspirations: school/subject choices, staying on rates. • To improve schools and FE colleges: transition from school, building on key regional skills, attracting more adults into education. • To meet the future skills needs of regions employers, including medium to long term as well as immediate needs; to identify sectors with greatest potential for sustained economic growth. • To increase employer and employee investment in skills training. • To enhance skills service provision, encouraging cooperation between services; improving information and ‘matching’ jobs and individuals; mechanisms for tracking skill needs, improving evidence base, research and skills modelling. • To facilitate labour market entry: increasing knowledge base, skills. • To increase high quality apprenticeships, and vocational training. • To address the gender gap in participation, and release women’s potential perhaps through special courses aimed at women. To meet the needs of older men and to encourage younger men into ‘atypical’ forms of employment. • To address the particular problem of young people who are NEET.
From Andy Capp to ‘Geordie Shore’ • ‘Geordie Shore’ cast launch a doner kebab perfume (12 Jan 2012) • Newcastle aiming to clean up ‘party image’ tainted by Geordie Shore (Metro 21 November 2012). Forbes claims the reality soap has a significant cost in crime and disorder
Seven sets of suggestions • Educational policies • Pathways into employment • Workplace initiatives • Specific needs and challenging stereotypes • Getting to work • Centres of excellence, clusters and sub-regional centres • Urban cultural policy
1. Education, education, education • Link schools • Attract talent • Employment hubs • Vocational skills • Gender issues
2. Pathways to employment • Partnerships • Skills Programmes • Knowledge Lift • Wage Incentives
3. Workplace initiatives • Flexicurity • Mentoring and Exchanges • Training • Sabbatical leave • Subsidies • Wages • Support – childcare, transport • Youth Jobs
4. Gender issues • Monitoring • Mainstreaming • Childcare • Parental leave • Neighbourhood schemes
5. Getting to work • Transport subsidies • Local jobs
6. Centres of excellence/local hubs etc • Exploit regional strengths – cars, medicine, IT?, HE. • Sub-regional hubs • Sustainable investment/green technologies
7. Cultural policies • Key icons • Waterside developments • High culture and less elitist events • Encourage private and philanthropic investments
Who pays, what costs, whose responsibility • Who initiates policy changes? • Who administers them? • Where is the budget held? • How much decentralisation of responsibilities and budgets is (a) desirable and (b) feasible?
