Southeast Asia after 1945

1. Southeast Asiaafter 1945 • April 4, 2013

2. Review • What happened to British India in 1947? • When did the Indian economy begin to take off? Why then? • When did India become a democracy? • Has it remained a democracy ever since 1947? • Why has India managed to be democratic when Pakistan and Bangladesh have had so much trouble maintaining democratic governments?

3. Colonialism Unravels (p.172) • Joining Thailand as independent countries.... • 1946 The Philippines • 1948 Burma • 1949 Indonesia (required a war) • 1954 Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos (required a war) • 1957 Malaysia • 1965 Singapore (separates from Malaysia) • 1999 East Timor [Timor Leste] (required a war)

4. Fault-lines in Southeast Asia • military vrs. civilian rule: Myanmar has been under military rule most of the time. Thailand and Indonesia have also experienced long periods of military rule • ethno-religious tension: • Chinese and non-Chinese: Indonesia, Malaysia. and Vietnam sites of greatest tension (p. 171) • Muslim-Christian: the Philippines (p. 180), Thailand (p.182), East Timor (p. 176) • Lowlander-highlander: Myanmar, Vietnam

5. Political Development • On a scale of more democratic to less democratic: • the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, East Timor • Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia • Myanmar: democratizing but still authoritarian • Vietnam, Laos: Communist Party-authoritarian. • Brunei: monarchy (sultanate) • What is procedural democracy?

6. Economic Development • Developed: Singapore, Brunei • Developing: Malaysia, Thailand, East Timor, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam • A long way to go: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar • Do Singapore and the Philippines contradict the assumption that there is a connection between landlords and lack of democracy?

7. Barrington Moore andSoutheast Asia • Barrington Moore doesn’t discuss Southeast Asia. If we try to apply his theory there, we find: • The Barrington Moore thesis may help explain Vietnam, but not the rest of Southeast Asia. Ethnic diversity and colonial rule complicate the picture in SE Asia. • In Vietnam landlords fled to the south in the 1940s and 1950. Without a strong merchant class in the north, Communism became firmly established. In the South a right-wing authoritarianism took root. • Growth of a merchant class may help explain later democratization in Indonesia and Thailand, but not in Myanmar.

8. Comparative Economies • Estimated per capita GDP (by purchasing power) in 2012 • Singapore $60,900 Brunei $50,500 Malaysia $16,900 Thailand $10,000 • Timor-Leste $ 9,500 • Indonesia $5,000 Philippines $4,300 • Vietnam $3,500 Laos $3,000 Cambodia $2,400 • Burma (Myanmar) $1,400

9. The Philippines (pp.163-4, 177-80) • Crony Capitalism in an oligarchic society. • Marcos imposed strong-handed rule on the Philippines from 1972 to 1986. Was overthrown by “People Power.” • US colonial rule did not promote industrialization, and also enhanced landlord power, but taught respect for procedural democracy. • There have now been several peaceful transfers of power.

10. Myanmar (Burma) (pp. 184-86) • Aung San, the man who led Burma to independence, was killed shortly before Burma became independent. • In 1962 the Burmese military seized control and established “Burmese socialism.” They killed hundreds whenever pro-democracy protests erupted. • Democracy movement led by Aung San’s daughter, Suu Kyi. She won annulled 1990 election. Was allowed to enter parliament in 2012. • Poverty has slowed political progress. The military is slowly stepping aside, so Myanmar may be truly democratic before too long.

11. Thailand (pp. 165-6, 180-84) • Constitutional monarchy established by military coup in 1932 • 1946 King found shot dead in his bed. Current king ascends the throne • Splits within the military created space for civilian governments. • Last coup was in 2006. There was an election, in 2007, which civilians won. Thailand now appears to be a functioning democracy.

12. Indonesia (pp. 162-3, 173-77) • 1949-1965 Sukarno-ruled with support of Communist Party. Declared “guided democracy.” • 1965 Attempted left-wing coup led to an anti-Communist bloodbath. At least 500,000 killed, many of the Chinese Indonesians. (p. 163) • 1965-1998 Suharto’s right-wing dictatorship stimulates economic growth. (switch from import-substitution to export-oriented economic politics) • 1998-present. Stumbling steps toward democracy. East Timor breaks away.

13. Malaysia (pp. 167-69, 186-89) • Communist (primarily Chinese) rebellion slowed progress toward independence • Major issue has been the attempts by Malays to ensure their numerical superiority is reflected in political and economic superiority. • Ruling party is a coalition of Malay, Chinese, and Indian parties. Malays dominate. The ruling party has never lost a national election but their share of the vote has been dropping recently. An election this spring may be the first time Malaysia will experience a peaceful transfer of power.

14. Singapore (pp. 190-91) • Communal tensions with Malays led to Singapore separating from Malaysia in 1965. • Under leadership of Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore became a trading and financial centre, making it very wealthy • There are elections, but the ruling party always wins, and the opposition never wins more than a few seats. Opposition politicians are sometimes charged in civil suits with “insulting” the leaders of the government. There is no real freedom of speech or freedom of the press in Singapore.

15. religion, ethnicity, and national identity • Indonesia: everyone is required to believe in one God. Most are Muslims (Buddhists and Hindus are treated as believing in one God.) • Malaysia: Malays are supposed to be Muslims • Thailand: to be a real Thai, you should be Buddhist. Burmese also define themselves as Buddhists. That causes problems for religious minorities. • Chinese maintain a separate cultural identity in some Southeast Asian countries by frequenting Chinese temples.

16. Vietnam (pp. 153-59, 191-93) • Vietnam, which had been divided into three separate colonies under the French, resisted the return of the French in 1945. War with the French ended in 1954 with the division of Vietnam into a Communist north and an anti-Communist (but not democratic) south. • With Ho Chi Minh, a Communist nationalist, as the leader in the North, a guerrilla war to unite north and south begins in the late 1950s. The US intervenes to defend the government of the south. The Americans admit defeat in 1973. Vietnam is united under a Communist government in 1975. • Vietnam began imitating China’s economic reforms in 1986. It now, like China, combines a mixed economy (some capitalism, some state control) with authoritarian rule.

17. Cambodia’s tragedy (160-62, 194-96) • Freed from French control in the 1950s, Cambodia tried to remain neutral in the battle between north and south Vietnam. • The US supported General Lon Nol’s overthrow of the neutral government of Sihanouk in 1970. That, plus US military attacks on Cambodia, allowed the Khmer Rouge to seize the nationalist banner. They took over Cambodia in 1975 and embarked on a “purification” of the population that cost over 1.5 million dead. • Vietnam invaded in 1979 and forced the Khmer Rouge from power. Cambodia’s prime minister is a former Khmer Rouge who first gained power with Vietnamese help.

18. Don’t forget Laos (pp.160, 193-94 • A small country caught up in the battle for Indochina. The war in Vietnam spilled over into Laotian territory. • When Vietnam and Cambodia went Communist, so did Laos (the Communist forces were led by a Communist prince!) • Laos is now ruled by the Lao People’s Revolutionary Part. There is a mixed economy and an authoritarian political system.

19. Brunei (p. 191) • An often overlooked country that is relatively rich (because of oil). • Less than 500,000 people live in Brunei. • Still an absolute monarchy (sultanate) • 11-20% of the population of Brunei are of Chinese background.

20. Major Violence in SE Asia • 1945-75 War in Vietnam • 1965 Massacre in Indonesia • 1975-78 Killing fields in Cambodia • plus on-going political violence in Thailand, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Burma/Myanmar