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Ordem e Progresso or nem ordem, nem progresso?

Ordem e Progresso or nem ordem, nem progresso?. Brazil Random Facts. Portuguese Empire Almost 200 million Bigger than the lower 48 of the US Invented the airplane?. Early Brazil. Brazilian independence Imperial Brazil First Republic. Getulio Vargas. 1930-1945 Gaucho

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Ordem e Progresso or nem ordem, nem progresso?

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  1. Ordem e Progresso ornem ordem, nem progresso?

  2. Brazil Random Facts • Portuguese Empire • Almost 200 million • Bigger than the lower 48 of the US • Invented the airplane?

  3. Early Brazil • Brazilian independence • Imperial Brazil • First Republic

  4. Getulio Vargas • 1930-1945 • Gaucho • Centralizes Brazilian poltics • Increase state intervention in economy • Estado Novo • First mass-based politics

  5. Second Republic, 1945-1964 • Democratic politics • ISI policies and related crises • Juscelino Kubitschek, President 1956-1960.

  6. The Brazilian Political Systemin the Second Republic • Weak President • Majority veto override • No decree power • Complex Legislative System • Multiparty, high fragmentation. • Party-Switching • Open-list proportional representation

  7. Political System, Cont • Net Result: • Executive leadership difficult • Pork and Vote-buying an essential part of legislative coalitions.

  8. Growing tensions • Economic problems associated with ISI • Stabilization program would alienate workers and left. • Polarization • Military Thinking: ESG • US helped to set up in 1949

  9. Janio Quadros • Janio Quadros • Elected 1960 • V-P Joao Goulart • Brilliant or crazy? • Resigns hoping for more power

  10. Joao Goulart, V-P • Will he become President? • In communist China at the time of the coup • Military despises him • He flies home indirectly (China-Paris-RS) • Solution: Parliamentary system? • Weak President (Goulart) • Tancredo Neves, Prime Minister

  11. Goulart • Regains full Presidential powers via plebiscite, 1963 • Challenges • Economic • Military Politics • Rural mobilization • Stalemate • Coup d’Etat, 1964 • Was it really a coup?

  12. New form of Authoritarianism • Military Governments in Brazil • Previously - clean house and leave • This time…. they stayed until 1985 • “Bureaucratic Authoritarian” Regimes • Authoritarian • Bureaucratic - apolitical technocrats given control.

  13. Brazil’s military government • Pseudo-Democracy • Brutal - but not Argentina, not Chile? • Castello Branco 64-67 • 1966 Elections and political parties • ARENA and the MDB • Costa e Silva 67-69 (hard-liner) • Repression of labor and politicians • AI-5 • Insurrection, crushed by 1973

  14. Military Government, Cont

  15. Central Features of the New Republic • The Party System • Open-List Proportional Representation with low barriers to entry. • Inequality, clientelism, and patronage politics. • A Strong Presidency • Federalism?

  16. 1. Brazil’s Party System • Mass partisanship is extremely low, in contrast to other countries. • Many parties earn seats in Congress – usually more than 20. • Politician’s success has little relation to their partisanship. • Correlation between President and Deputy vote shares is ….. 0 • Why?

  17. Open List Proportional Representation

  18. Typical campaign ad, OLPR

  19. Another OLPR Ad

  20. Impact of the Party System • President’s party never has a majority. Lucky to get 20% of the seats in Congress. • The other 80% of the seats are held by the other 20 or so parties. • So how does anyone get anything done in Brazil? • Presidency + $

  21. 2. Strong Presidency • Executive has central role in budget, and expenditures are “optional”. • Executive has “decree authority” – can write “medidas provisorias”, with temporary force of law. • Result: executive forms large multi-party coalitions for governing, and uses decree authority when necessary.

  22. 3. Inequality/Poverty a prerequisite? • Why do parties “sell out” so easily? • Greed • Poverty • “When it gets dark out there, it get’s really dark”. • Voters in many places don’t care about your stand on world peace. They just want you to get things done.

  23. Some Perspective • The legislature is fragmented, lacks accountability – and is largely for sale. • The executive uses pork and decree authority to govern. • In this sense, representation “works”. The most important votes anyone casts are for the Presidency. • Key difference from 1946-1964: the legislature is weaker.

  24. 4. Federalism? • Brazil is divided into 27 states plus a federal district • Historically, state politics have spilled over into national politics • Those influences are still present for legislators but much weaker for presidents. • Evidence: roll-call votes, presidential tickets, and reforms.

  25. Recent Political History • 1985-1989: Jose Sarney (ARENA) • 1989-1992: Fernando Collor (PRN) • 1992-1994: Itamar Franco (PMDB) • 1995-2002: Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) • 2003-2010: Luiz “Lula” da Silva (PT) • 2011- : Dilma Rousseff (PT)

  26. Lula: Change or more of the same? • Founding member of the Worker’s Party, 2nd grade education, metal worker. • As President: • Multiple corruption scandals. • Expands CCT’s to poor. • Economic boom. • Extremely popular with poor, extremely unpopular with middle/upper • New class cleavage or “rouba mais faz”?

  27. New Directions in Research on Brazil • A worrisome increase in judicial politicization.

  28. New Directions • The enduring problem of race • The racial myth in Brazil is one of equality color blind attitudes, and shared heritage. • Brazil is more than 50% “black” • Most of the afro-brazilians are poor. Most of the elites are white

  29. An Experiment

  30. Not a Racial Myth?

  31. But with more choices…

  32. New Directions:Brazil’s International Future • Still struggles with a perverse combination of pride and shame • Desires a seat at the table (UN Sercurity Council) • But will struggle with conflicting themes: nonalignment, anti-American, and democracy.

  33. My favorite punchline • Everyone would love to have Brazil’s problems.

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