Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in the Aegean Sea Kostas Nittis

1. Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in the Aegean Sea Kostas Nittis National Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greece • Review of existing monitoring and forecasting systems • Present capabilities • Problems - Limitations • Perspectives

2. Overview

3. Research efforts on O.O. • POSEIDON Project (1997-2000, 14.1 Meuro EFTA+HMNE) • Integrated monitoring and forecasting system: real-time data from buoy network, daily forecasts, end-user products • Partners:NCMR, ΟCEANOR, UoA, UoT, NTUA • Operational since May 2000 • MFS (1998-2001, 2002-2004): Development of multiparametric M3A station, VOS Measurements, High resolution regional and coastal models • MARSAIS (2001-2003): Synergy between SAR and buoy data, Validation of Algorithms, Detection and forecasting of oil-spills • FerryBox (2002-2005): Implementation of a European network for FerryBox measurements, Operational phase: 2002-2003 • MAMA (2002-2004): Coordination on Mediterranean Scale, Capacity building, MERSEA (2002-2003): Towards GMES (2008)

4. The POSEIDON buoy network SeaWatch Buoys • Meteorological Sensors • Air Temperature • Atm. Pressure • Wind Speed/Direction • “Blue” Sensors • Temperature • Salinity • Current • Waves • “Green” Sensors • Dissolved Oxygen • Chlorophyll-A • Light Attenuation • Radioactivity • Height: 7.9 m • Width: 1.75 m • Weight: 900 kgr • Energy: Solar panels + batteries • Communication: Imarsat C, GSM every 3 hours

5. End-user products www.poseidon.ncmr.gr POSEIDON Products • On-line data (“meteo”, “blue” and “green”) • Processed Data (statistics etc.) • Meteorological Forecasts • Sea-State Forecasts (waves) • Hydrodynamic model Forecasts (currents, T,S) • Dispersion of Pollutants (oil-spills) • Near-shore wave conditions

6. Surface circulation characteristics Nittis et al., GAOS 2002

7. High frequency variability Nittis et al., MPB 2001

8. Tracing of Water Masses Nittis et al., GAOS 2002

9. Spring bloom monitoring

10. The Μ3Α System

11. M3A Measurements

12. M3A Measurements

13. Limiting factors: Bio-fouling

14. Ferry Box Systems

15. Operational Models: POSEIDON (1st generation) • Based on ETA LAM • Resolution: 20/10 km • Products: Wind, Air temperature, Relative Humidity, Precipitation, Cloud cover, Atm. Pressure, Fog, … • Based on DAUT model (2d generation) • Resolution: 5km • Buoy data assimilation • Products : Height, Direction and Period fields • Based on POM • Resolution: 5km, 31lev • Rivers and Dardanelles outflow simulation • Products: 3-D Velocity, Temperature and Salinity fields

16. New generation Wave Model (WAM) Mediterranean Wave Model • Based on : WAM • Resolution : 0.25 o • Forced by the coarse (20km) atmospheric model Aegean Wave Model • Nested to Mediterranean model • Resolution : 0.05 o • Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model

17. New Generation HD Model Eastern Mediterranean Model • Based on : POM • Resolution : 10 km • Vertical Res. : 19 sigma levels • Forced by the coarse (20km) atmospheric model • Dardanelle's (open boundary) / Rivers Parameterisation • Initial + boundary values: MODB • 12 years climatology, 95-99 ECMWF analysis, operational 1999-now • Interactive estimation of fluxes (heat-water) Aegean Sea Model • Nested to EMED model • Resolution : 5 km • Vertical Res. : 31 σ-levels • Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model • Boundary values updated every 1h (T, S, U, V, W, Z + free radiation)

18. Forecasting Skill Evaluation a) Buoy data M: 24 hours forecasts O: Buoy observations Atmospheric Model Statistics Model Against Buoy data

19. Forecasting Skill Evaluation b) XBT data

20. Forecasting Skill Eval. c) mesoscale features Forecasted Sea Level Elevation during Summer 2000 AVHRR SST SST 1 October 2000: 24h forecast

21. POSEIDON Operational Oil-spill Model • Based on: PARCEL model (Koutitas 1988, Johansen 1985) • Processes: • Evaporation (Stiver et al. 1989) • Emulsification (Rasmussen 1985) • Beaching and sedimentation (Gundlach 1987) • Advection – diffusion: • 3-D current field • Horizontal and vertical mixing coefficients from hydrodynamic model (Smagorinsky, Mellor-Yamada) • Wave field • Additional data: • Date and the position of the “event” • Initial volume of the pollutant • Density of the different elements • Evacuation time • (Density of evaporation and emulsification, retention time) • Products: • Oil Concentration • Beaching • Evaporation, emulsification Pollani et al., MPB 2000

22. Synergy with SAR data: oil slicks detection • Synthetic Aperture Radar: • ERS1/2, RADARSAT, ENVISAT • 0,056 μm, 5,3 GHz • Repeat cycle: 35 days • Resolution: 30m • Swath width: 100km (400km Envisat)

23. Towards forecasting in Coastal Areas Saronikos Gulf Model • Resolution : 1.8 km • Vertical Res. : 16σ-levels • Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model • Nested to Aegean 5km model: Initial + boundary conditions • Boundary values updated every 1h (T, S, U, V, W, Z + free radiation)

24. Next steps ? • Extend the current observing capacity • Deeper layers (0-500 / 0-1000m) • New platforms (eg HF radars) • Operational RS products • Continue / Intensify efforts in coastal areas • Coordinate efforts with pan-european monitoring and forecasting efforts – Towards GMES (GMES Forum, EuroGOOS conference 3-6 December, Athens)