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SAVING THE ARCTIC Gregory Benford, UCI

SAVING THE ARCTIC Gregory Benford, UCI. ｷ increasing climate change, driven at a high rate by global warming  ~ few decades ｷ the rise in acid levels in our ocean, already well documented  ~ half century. Total Primary Power vs Year. 1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW.

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SAVING THE ARCTIC Gregory Benford, UCI

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  1. SAVING THE ARCTIC Gregory Benford, UCI ｷincreasing climate change, driven at a high rate by global warming  ~ few decades ｷthe rise in acid levels in our ocean, already well documented  ~ half century

  2. Total Primary Power vs Year 1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW

  3. Emitted Carbon Increases as H/C Decreases

  4. 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 Gigatons/yr 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Global Carbon ManagementTechnologies in the Current R&D Pipeline Are Not Enough Where today’s technology will take us IS92a(1990 technology) IS92a 550 Ceiling 1300 Gigatons Where our current aspirations for technology will take us 480 Gigatons Where we need to go to stabilize carbon

  5. 1900 1950 2000 2150 2100 CO2 emissions = N x (GDP/N) x (E/GDP) x (C/E) = GDP x (E/GDP) x (C/E) = GDP x (C/GDP) population (N) per capita GDP (GDP/N) energy intensity (E/GDP) IPCC IS92a“Business as usual”scenario assumptions carbon intensity (C/E)

  6. IN CASE OF ABRUPT CLIMATE SHIFT, BREAK GLASS • Very probably Kyoto-style agreements will fail to grasp the extent of our deep social & environmental dilemma--global climate change versus local economic growth.

  7. IN CASE OF ABRUPT CLIMATE SHIFT, BREAK GLASS • We should have well studied methods ready to halt a sudden climate shift, if warning signs gather. While tuning the rate of increase of emissions, we can attack other terms in the equation that affects the planetary heat balance. We should do the early studies to work methods and impacts of possible actions we can take quickly to manipulate the entire range of effects that can lower global heating.

  8. IN CASE OF ABRUPT CLIMATE SHIFT, BREAK GLASS • mild measures are: • (1) emergency sequestration of carbon; • (2) changing the reflectivity of buildings and blacktop, and • (3) increasing cloud cover over the tropical oceans

  9. The War on Carbon Dioxide • “The trouble with the global warming debate is that it has become a moral crusade when it’s really an engineering problem. The inconvenient truth is that if we don't solve the engineering problem, we’re helpless.” -- economist Robert Samuelson

  10. Develop Off-the-Shelf Albedo Changers • Whiten roofs and blacktop in cities >> saves electrical power for air conditioning, cools planet • Explore cloud production >> reflects visible, may retain infra-red • Increase clouds over tropical oceans >> couple with coal-burning plants?

  11. ºC -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Annual mean temperature response • 2xCO2 • 560 ppm CO2, normal solar radiation Temperature change (ºC) Caldeira et al., ms. in prep.

  12. Both geoengineering cases remove ~0.37% of total solar insolation

  13. ºC -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Annual mean temperature response • Geo71.25 • 560 ppm CO2, 25% solar reduction north of 71ºN Temperature change (ºC) Caldeira et al., ms. in prep.

  14. Modeled September sea-ice Pre-industrial (280 ppm) 2 x CO2 (560 ppm) Caldeira et al., ms. in prep.

  15. Modeled September sea-ice Caldeira et al., ms. in prep.

  16. Arctic geoengineering does not reverse ocean acidification Tendency to dissolve carbonate minerals isstronger in the Arctic than anywhere else [CO32-]arag from simulation at 2xCO2 Courtesy Jim Orr, IPSL

  17. Concerns • Ozone layer • Nobel Prize winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen thinks this is not an issue (but he could be wrong) • Socio-political risks • Perception of a technical fix could reduce pressure to reduce CO2 emissions • Unanticipated environmental surprises ?

  18. MANY VARIABLES * particle type & size diatomaceous earth? -- which is benign and can be crushed to 0.1 micron * quantity of mass distributed * duration of experiment * altitude--which affects area affected and residence time, and thus duration. • These are intertwined

  19. Cooling the Arctic Summer • deploy the particles by airplane in the Spring; • measure the cooling below, using local sensors and space monitoring of the sea ice; • detect if the present retreat of sea ice toward the North Pole slows or even reverses. This will be a clear, visual signature than the region is cooling; and • measure to see if ground temperatures will give more refined understanding. The particles can rain or snow out in fall, ending the experiment in predictable fashion.

  20. Climate studies • The end of passive science? • Limited experiments, active science. • At least we will learn more through experiment, and could find ways to intervene -- on-the-shelf methods, if we get into dire straits.

  21. A moral quandary • What if we continue to emit greenhouse gases, and Arctic ecosystems are threatened with extinction: Which is worse? • – let her die, or • – manage the Arctic climate?

  22. Science first, restoration later • begin with regional, reversible experiments to define the science • learn from these how well we understand our climate • look for cooling effects • stop the warming to buy time • deal with ocean acidification separately • focus on what we can do now, not what we can do eventually.

  23. Sea Clouds

  24. Only puny secrets need protection. Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity. -- Marshall McLuhan

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