Estimating Management Costs for “Site de Conservation” in Madagascar

1. Estimating Management Costs for “Site de Conservation” in Madagascar Technical Sub-committee of the Sustainable Finance group of the EP3

2. Building a Protected Area System In September 2003, the President of Madagascar, Hon. Marc Ravalomanana, declared that his country would more than triple the area under conservation bringing the current 1.7 million hectares of protected areas up to 6 million.

3. Madagascar’s Protected Areas Today

4. What will it cost? Within a given country, the size of a protected area is the most important indicator of its cost (Balmford et al. 2002, 2003.) explaining about 80 to 85% of the variation seen in cost per ha Model developed estimation of the appropriate area to cost/area regression and the expected sizes of the future Site de Conservation

5. Analysis based on: Identified and to be Identified SDC Total Identified Terrestrial 2,941,125 Total Identified Marine and Wetland 1,445,986 Total Sites Currently Identified 4,387,111 Total ANGAP Sites 2,060,000 Target Terrestrial Sites 5,500,000 (10%) Unidentified Terrestrial Sites 498,875

6. Model- Terrestrial High Cost Scenario based on ANGAP costs: Log(cost/ha) = 3.898 - 0.705*Log(PA area in ha) (r2= 0.87, p<0.000). Minimum Cost Scenario (42% reduction): Log(cost/ha) = 3.52 - 0.705*Log(PA area) (42% reduction due to elimination of some unncessary spending categories)

7. DATA • the annual costs that ANGAP (Madagascar’s Park and Reserve Management Authority) have budgeted for the next five years • an analysis of ANGAP’s 2005 budget by activity • Include modification for off-site or fixed administrative costs

8. Administrative Costs Sites divided into three categories: 1) those that will be managed or at least overseen nationally; 2) those that will be managed at the provincial or regional level, and 3) those that will be managed only at the local level

9. Terrestrial Results

10. Model – Marine & Wetland log10 (cost per unit area, dollar km-2 y-1) = 5.62 - 0.72*log10(area) - 0.002*(distance to inhabited land) - 0.30*(PPP index)area is given in km2, costs in USD, distance to inhabited land is measured from the geometric center of the protected area, PPP = purchasing power parity. From Balmford et al. 2004. Assumptions: PPP = 3.5 (but is probably higher); distance = 1 km.

11. Marine & Wetland Results Assumes a 50% reduction in costs from high cost to low cost scenario.

12. Total Costs for Site de Conservation

13. Low Cost Estimates for Site de Conservation Management

14. High Cost Estimates for Site de Conservation Management

15. Summary of Costs

16. Issues • Findings provide range of costs - higher range probable during start-up and early operating phases with decreases over time. • Marginal costs for newer SdC may prove higher as larger areas are unlikely to be available • Marine protected areas, if all brought on line, will contribute significantly to costs – although the PPP choice may skew results

17. Issues • 4. Costs reported here do not include the existing ANGAP requirements – these are additional • Significant increase in annual conservation financing requirements that Madagascar and the global community need to finance • Final costs will be rationalized through the business planning process

18. Can We Afford the Investment?