Bayesian Methods and Computing in Medicine and Health Policy Oct. 12-14, 2000 R. David Thomas

1. Schedule • Day 1: Thursday • Lunch - Noon • Intro to the Bayesian Approach • Probability • Prior, likelihood, posterior, predictive distributions • GUSTO: A Case Study • Elicitation • Decision Analysis • Design • Dinner • Intro to Software - First Bayes, Splus, BUGS • Day 2: Friday • Breakfast • Calculation Overview • Conjugate • Laplace • MCMC • Generalized Linear & Hierarchical Models • Conjugate • Conditional Independence Graphs • GLM’s & GLMM’s • Hierarchical Models • Lunch • Hands on First Bayes, Splus, BUGS • Dinner • More hands-on data analysis • Day 3: Saturday • Breakfast • Advanced Topics • Missing data and dropout, Measurement error, Spatial models, Comparison of performance indicators • Lunch • Hands-on advanced models • Adjourn 5pm • Persons staying over Saturday will have the option of more hands-on computing time or attending a social event. Bayesian Methods and Computing in Medicine and Health Policy Oct. 12-14, 2000 R. David Thomas Executive Conference Center Duke University Nicky Best Imperial College School of Medicine St. Mary’s, London Gary Rosner Duke University Medical Center Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences Duke University Dalene Stangl Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences Sanford Institute of Public Policy Duke University Register today! Deadline May 1. Enrollment limited to 40 participants. Scope The focus of this workshop is on practical applications of Bayesian methods in medicine and health policy. The workshop will introduce the Bayesian paradigm of statistics and demonstrate its use in analyzing data from clinical and community trials, epidemiology, and health policy. Examples will range from basic to complex. The workshop will feature instruction in BUGS software (Bayesian Analysis Using GIBBS Sampling). Break-out sessions will give participants hands-on computing practice. The course is aimed at applied statisticians who work in medical research, government regulatory agencies, private pharmaceutical companies, and other health-related institutions. It will also be appropriate for master’s and Ph.D. graduate students wanting to learn about the application of Bayesian methods. The textbook, Bayesian Biostatistics, edited by D.A. Berry and D. Stangl (Marcel Dekker, 1996) will be offered with the course.

2. Nicky Bestis faculty in the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at Imperial College School of Medicine in London, UK. Her research interests cover Bayesian approaches to complex modelling in biostatistics, epidemiology and the social sciences, including disease mapping and ecological regression in environmental epidemiology, and comparision of hospital performance indicators. She has been closely involved in the development of the Bayesian statistical software package BUGS (http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs) and has given a number of short courses on Bayesian statistics using BUGS in Europe and the US.. Gary Rosneris Associate Professor in the Division of Biometry, Department of Community and Family Medicine and in the Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University. He is also a statistician in the Cancer and Leukemia Group B Statistical Office. Dr. Rosner has extensive experience in clinical trials. His research centers on the design of clinical studies and the analysis of longitudinal data. Dalene Stangl is faculty in the Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University. Her research focus is Bayesian methods in health-related research including clinical and comm- unity trials, epidemiology, health services, and health policy. She received the ASA’s Youden Award in 1996 and the Trinity College Distinguished Teaching Award in 1997. She has co-edited two volumes Bayesian Biostatistics (1996) and Meta-Analysis in Medicine and Health Policy (2000) with Don Berry, and has co-authored over 50 articles in statistics and medical journals. Instructors Registration  Day guest - lunches and short course only, $984  Thurs. arrival - Sat. departure. $1368  Wed. arrival - Sat. departure, $1498  Thurs. arrival - Sun. departure, $1498  Wed. arrival - Sun. departure, $1628 A check made payable to Duke University must accompany your registration. Should you find it necessary to cancel your registration, your course fee, less $200 will be refunded if notice of cancellation is received at least 30 days prior to the start of the session. Mail registration to: Lisa Squires Phone: 919-684-8029 Box 90251, ISDS FAX: 919-684-8594 Duke University E-mail: lisa@stat.duke.edu Durham, NC 27708 Name:____________________________________ Title:_____________________________________ Agency/Organization _______________________ Street Address:_____________________________ City: _____________________ State: __________ Zip Code: _____________ Email: _____________ Phone: ______________ Fax: ________________ Form of Payment:  Check - $200 deposit, with balance payable at the time of the conference. Additional forms available at www.stat.duke.edu. Accommodations and Costs The conference will be held at the R. David Thomas Center at Duke University. This center will provide all housing, dining, and workshop accommodations. The Thomas Center has an on-site spa/fitness center, state-of-the-art audiovisual equipment, superb dining, and is a few minutes walk from the Trent Jones 18-hole golf course and Duke Gardens. The price forthe workshop, course materials, textbook, meals (lunch Thursday through lunch Saturday), refreshments, and housing (3 nights) is$1498. An extra night’s housing is $130. For day guests (no housing) the cost is $984 including lunches. Participants must bring a laptop computer. BUGS software will be provided at the course.