Societal Change, Care Need and Long-term Care Workforce in Selected European Countries

1. NEUJOBS WP 12 Health care, goods and sevices for an ageing population Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event: Employment 2025 - How Will Multiple Transitions Affect the European Labor Market? Societal Change, Care Need and Long-term Care Workforce in Selected European Countries

2. 1 Long-term care is provided by informal and formal caretaker Depending on the institutional settings, the long-term care system relies more or less on formal care In most countries, informal care (family) is the main source for people in need of care Demographic ageing increases the share of people in need for care and – at the same time – decreases the informal care potential The impact on the formal workforce depends on country specific settings and assumptions on the future development Long-term care workforce 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

3. 1 What is the impact of societal change on the demand for and supply of formal care? Detailed analysis for five countries • Germany • Denmark • Italy • Poland • Slovakia Research agenda 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

4. 1 AEmployment situation in institutional long-term care and professional home care services B Impact of demographic change C Impact of changing household structures, family structures and living arrangements on the demand for formal care DImpact on employment Tasks 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

5. Need of care and care givingarrangements • Long-term care workforce – currentsituation • Future developmentoffactorsinfluencingthelong-term care workforceanddemandfor care; andchanges in laboursupply • Discussion • Outline 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

6. 1 Dependency rates (in %) by age groups in selected countries (2010) 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

7. 1 Age-structure of the dependend population in selected countries (2010) Denmark: 0.37 Mio. Germany: 7.9 Mio. Italy: 3.1 Mio. Poland: 2.5 Mio. Slovakia 0.48 Mio. Total: 14.3 Mio. 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

8. 1 Formal and informal care arrangements 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

9. Informal caregiver 1 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

10. 2 Long-term care workforce – current situation 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

11. 2 Employment in residential care and social work activities I 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

12. 2 In 2011 about 80% of all employees in residential care and social work were females (EU average) In the selected countries, their share ranges from 70% in Germany to more than 90% in Slovakia The share of older workers (55+) is about 16% (EU average). In the selected countries: • Nursing homes: 9% (PL) 27% (SVK) • Social work: 12% (IT) 18% (PL) Employment in residential care and social work activities II 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

13. 3 Future development of factors influencing the long-term care workforce 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

14. Demographic development • Rising life-expectancy • Constant dependency rates: an increase in life-expectancy leads to a higher share of people with impairments in ADL • Fertility rates • Have an influence in the long-run on the informal care potential; but less relevant for the projection until 2025 • Changing living arrangements • Constant age/gender-specific probability of being a caregiver, taking into account changing living arrangements • Increase in single households (exception SVK with a decline in single households) 3 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

15. 3 Demographic devolpment 2010 – 2025 (by demographic scenario) 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

16. 3 People (65+) with impairments in ADL in selected countries 2010 - 2025 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

17. 3 Changes in the number of informal caregiver (50+) 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

18. 3 Changes in number of recipients of formal care 2010 - 2025 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

19. 3 Changes in demand for formal long-term care workforce (national statistics) 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

20. 3 Changes in employment between 2010 and 2025 (NEMESIS) 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

21. 3 Changes in demand for long-term care workforce and supply of residential care and social work 2010 - 2025 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

22. 4 Discussion 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

23. Summary & Discussion I • Projectionofdemandandsupplyoflongterm care workforce • Assumptions: • constantutilizationrates • Nobehavioraladjustments • Nochanges in thelong-term care system • Informal care remainsthemainpillarofthelong-term care system in all countries withtheexceptionofDenmark • Weexpect an increaseofdependentpeopleuntil 2025; thenumberof potential carerincreasesaswell. • The supplyof formal care hastoincreaseby 17% (tough) or 35% (friendly) • In general: thedemandforlong-term care growsstrongerthanlaborsupply in thissector 4 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

24. 4 Possible strategies to increase the supply of long-term care in the future: • Measures to increase informal care • Measures to increase the formal care workforce • Recruitment of long-term care workers from abroad Summary & Discussion II 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

25. 4 • Measurestoincrease informal care • Improvereconciliationofemploymentand informal care provision • Training, counselling • Increasetheshare (andamountof care provided)of male caregiver Measurestoincreasethe formal care workforce • Making jobsmoreattractive: wages, flexible workinghours, reductionofpart-time jobs, careeropportunities • Increaseproductivitybyusingmore ICT Recruitmentoflong-term care workersfromabroad Summary & Discussion III 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event

26. Dr. Anika Rasner Phone: +49 30 89 789 235 Email: arasner@diw.de