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November 14, 2006

Renaissance: Rails, Returns, Capital & Capacity Anthony B. Hatch – abh consulting 155 W68th Street NYC 10023 (212) 595-0457 ABH18@mindspring.com:: Indiana Logistics Summit. November 14, 2006. Railroads at historic tipping point. Capacity issues across all modes Volume increasing

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November 14, 2006

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  1. Renaissance: Rails, Returns, Capital & CapacityAnthony B. Hatch – abh consulting 155 W68th Street NYC 10023 (212) 595-0457 ABH18@mindspring.com::Indiana Logistics Summit November 14, 2006

  2. Railroads at historic tipping point • Capacity issues across all modes • Volume increasing • Share increasing • Rates increasing • Services levels (yes) increasing • Returns increasing • A secular, not a cyclical story • Capacity and infrastructure – and competitor - issues remain • Not fully reflected in the market?

  3. Show Me the Money • Share Price is the Indicator – over time! • Cash (Flow) is King • High ROIC = High Stock Price • And Vice Versa • Key is the phrase “through a cycle” • Old Model: Disinvestment • New Model: TBD

  4. Spending $: Mgmt.’s #1 Decision • Capex for Maintenance – “base” • Capex for Capacity, Service & Growth • Dividends • Share Buybacks • M&A – Strategic • M&A – Non-strategic (conglomeracy) • How management allocates indicates confidence & direction and impacts all stakeholders

  5. Virtuous Circle 2006 • Better returns (half finally earn returns equal to the cost of capital) • Better stock prices • Better revenue prospects – up double digit ’04-05 • Equals more investment – capex up sharply • Equals more capacity, better service • …equals better returns and growth….

  6. Railroad Stock PricesJanuary 2001 – October 2006 Index Jan 2001 = 100 Sources: MSN and CSI, Inc.

  7. S&P 500 and RailroadsMonthly Data January 1980 – October 2006 Index Jan. 1980 = 100 Sources: MSN and CSI, Inc.

  8. Even With Booming Traffic, Rail Earnings Are Substandard Median Return on Equity in 2005 (S&P 500 companies) *BNSF, CSX, NS, and UP Source: Business Week

  9. RR CoC vs. ROIC -stocks have done well but… they still trade at a discount to all stocks Cost of Capital Return on Investment Source: Surface Transportation Board

  10. Railroad Capital ExpendituresClass I Railroads Billions e Source: Railroad Facts, AAR

  11. Food – 2.6% Transportation equipment – 2.8% Petroleum & coal products – 3.0% Wood products – 3.0% Fabricated metal products – 3.5% Average all manufacturing – 3.5% Chemicals – 4.4% Paper – 4.7% Nonmetallic mineral prod. – 5.4% Electric utilities – 11.6% Class I RRs – 17.8% Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue Source: Census Bureau, EEI, AAR

  12. Railroad PerformanceClass I Railroads Index 1981 = 100 Productivity Volume Revenue Price Source: Railroad Facts, AAR

  13. Railroads and the EconomyClass I Railroads Index 1980 = 100 Sources: Federal Reserve System and AAR

  14. Railroads and the EconomyClass I Railroads Index 1980 = 100 Sources: Federal Reserve System and AAR

  15. Railroads and the EconomyU.S. Railroads Index 1980 = 100 Sources: Federal Reserve System and AAR

  16. Railroad Intermodal Revenue Growth Over 5% - Long Live the New King!- Coal Intermodal Source: Carload Waybill Statistics (includes non-Class I railroads)

  17. Intermodal Growth DriversDomestic and International • Globalization • Trade • Railroad Cost Advantages • Share Recovery From Highway • Truckload Issues

  18. Serious U.S. Transportation and Congestion Problems • High Cost of Highway Maintenance and Construction • Interdependence of Modes • $67 billion per Year Drag on Economy • Demand for Freight Transportation to Double by 2020

  19. Coal and Ag – Bulk Comeback • New growth mode? • Emissions and environmental issues • Oil prices and coal • Politics and coal; and grain/rereg • Ethanol • Exports • Feed

  20. Major Sources of Railroad Revenue Class I Railroads, 2005 Gross Freight Revenue in billions Intermodal* - $10.1 Coal - $9.4 Chemicals - $5.4 Transportation equipment - $4.0 Farm products - $3.6 Food - $3.3 Lumber & wood - $2.3 Pulp & paper - $2.0 Primary metal products - $1.7 Stone, clay & glass products - $1.5 Nonmetallic minerals - $1.3 Source: AAR *Estimated. Some intermodal revenue is also included in individual commodities.

  21. Railroad Rates- the old story Class I Railroads, Revenue Per Ton-Mile Cents Constant $: Down 56% since 1980 Current $: Down 9% since 1980 Source: Railroad Facts, AAR

  22. Pricing - the new paradigm • Rates up 3% in ’04 – post-Staggers best • Up 11% in ’05 (Secular rate of 2-3%?) • Fuel surcharges similar to TL • Yet Price Gap to the highway widening, even in ’05 and ’06 YTD • Capacity (still) short across all freight modes, despite temporary surpluses • Rails moving toward tariff and spot markets Conclusion: Best Ever Rate Environment “The new Golden era” – cost of capital within sight; not there yet

  23. RRs and Investment • Is growth affordable? Capex up 10% in ’07? • Can the intermodal model extend to carload? • Is additional capacity necessary? Desirable? • Wall Street’s constrictive role (“fighting the last war”) – changing? • Is this disconnect between the Renaissance and the Street the opportunity of a lifetime?

  24. Sources of capital • FCF – booming at most carriers (capex vs. ROIC) • Governments – states, PAs, Feds • Governments – Canada as contrast • Traditional Street sources & Banks • Private Equity

  25. Railroad Issues Fall 2006 • Economic/industrial recovery - durability • Service metrics – recovery or a meltdown (again)? • Trucking troubles also a secular issue • Capacity – coming shortage? Or “creative tension”? • Intermodal – new king of the hill • Coal and Grain: Comeback? Thanks to oil! • Is Growth Affordable? (Who will pay?) • Alliances vs. Mergers? • Hurricanes, other AoG • Labor – 1 Man Crews off the table? Coming shortage? • Safety and security – new risk?

  26. “Big Six” Rail H106 results • All six beat Street consensus • EPS up an average 58% vs. tough comps; range from +27% to +140% • Revenue growth averaged 14% • Estimated Yield growth (ex FS) was 6% • Fuel surcharges added another ~6% • So Far Q306 5 for 5 beating Street; solid forecasts (DPS increases, share buybacks & splits) – operating ratios in the 50s?!?

  27. Capital Expenditures 2005Class I Railroads $6.4 billion for Roadway & Structures and Equipment Source: AAR and R-1 annual reports Excludes new operating leases.

  28. New Freight Car DeliveriesRailroad and Private Owners Beginning 1995, Canadian cars included with U.S.

  29. New Locomotives InstalledU.S. Class I Railroads Note: New locomotives may also be installed by Canadian, Mexican, or U.S. regional railroads.

  30. Return on Total Capitalby Industry 2001-2004 average

  31. Railroad Return on EquityClass I Railroads n.m. n.m. - not meaningful (negative value) Source: Railroad Facts, AAR

  32. Railroad Employee ProductivityClass I Railroads, Ton-Miles Per Employee Millions Source: Railroad Facts, AAR

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