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Improvement on PM forecasting – Anthropogenic fugitive dust (primary PM emission) –

Improvement on PM forecasting – Anthropogenic fugitive dust (primary PM emission) – modulated by snow/ice cover. Pius Lee 1 , Jeff McQueen 2 , Ivanka Stajner 3 , Daniel Tong 1,4,5 , Jianping Huang 2 , Hyuncheol Kim 1,4 , Li Pan 1,4 , Barry Baker 1,6 , Sarah Lu 2 ,

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Improvement on PM forecasting – Anthropogenic fugitive dust (primary PM emission) –

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  1. Improvement on PM forecasting – Anthropogenic fugitive dust (primary PM emission) – modulated by snow/ice cover Pius Lee1, Jeff McQueen2, Ivanka Stajner3, Daniel Tong1,4,5, Jianping Huang2, Hyuncheol Kim1,4, Li Pan1,4, Barry Baker1,6, Sarah Lu2 , Jerry Gorline7, Daiwen Kang8,9,Sikchya Upadhaya3,10 1Air Resources Lab. (ARL), NOAA, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP), College Park, MD 2Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), NCWCP, College Park, MD 3Office of Science and Technology, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD 4Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellite, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 5Center for Spatial information Science and Systems, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 6Department of Physics, University of Maryland Baltimore County, MD 7Meteorological Development Lab., NOAA, Silver Spring, MD 8Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 9Computer Science Corp., Research Triangle Park, NC 10Syneren Technologies Corporation National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  2. A great thank you to the conference organizers Networking with AQ managers and forecasters/researchers Good examples: Insights and inspiration Anne Gobin, Burear Chief, CT DEEP: improved NAM, NAQFC Jhih-Yuan Yu, EPA ,Taiwan: 臺中國小1044 µg m-3 Susan Wierman, CEO, MARAMA Natalie and Connor, San Lorenzo VH AIRNow National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  3. OUTLINE • Improve PM* forecast by 1st principles • NCEP plans on 3 km horizontal grid spacing for CONUS • Q&A: Vertical and compositional distributions? -- intensive campaigns • Wind blown dust – primary PM emission • Anthropogenic fugitive dust • Real-time testing of modulation methodology • Summary and future work * Fann et al. Risk Analysis 2011: PM risk ≥ O3 risk Air Resources Laboratory 3 National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  4. Meteorology • Finer horizontal grid resolutions • PBL processes • Convective & • turbulent mixing • Land-Sea interaction • Fine features: e.g. terrain, urban Emissions “grid-2-obs verification and beyond” Kang et al., CMAS 2011 Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  5. Forecasting support for DISCOVER-AQ BW SJV HOU Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  6. Investigate processes near PBL top Heat-wave 2011 Comparison of Wind along flight track of P3B on July 20 2011 Less turbulence may not matter as PBL well-mixed, shallow-convection may matter. More frequent calm Bias in higher altitudes Spirals over Wilmington and Edgewood calm bias in PBL top venting Model under-predicted wind shear Air Resources Laboratory 6 National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  7. Finer descriptions helped 4-km Houston domain 12-km (cut from 5X CONUS) Comparison of verification results for pm Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  8. June 1 –July10 2013 Science questions: “How do anthropogenic And biogenic emissions Interact and affect AQ And climate” --- Joost de Gouw Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  9. Comparison between 12 and nested 4 km forecast for June 12 2013 Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  10. Bias RMSE “grid-2-obs verification and beyond” Kang et al., CMAS 2011 Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  11. Push towards higher resolution at NCEP Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  12. Emission should include Exo- and intra-domain wild fires ~21x • Versatility of selecting a limited-area domain of interest • Limited-area domain forecasts are heavily influenced by boundary conditions and their derivation is critical • e.g. exo-domain wild fire emissions ~12x 5x Agricultural burning prevails in the months of March and April in Mexico HMS wildfire detections during Apr. 2010 Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  13. The Dust Emission Model (FENGSA) Contribution attributable to ARL in CMAQ5.0 release • Modified Owen’s Equation (source: Marticorena et al, 1997): Tong et al., JGR, (in review) • Threshold Friction Velocities (u*t) (source: Gillette et al.1980, 1982,1988): • Effect of non-erodiable elements (Drag partition) (Marticorena et al, 1995): • Effects of rain and snow (Fecan et al, 1999): Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  14. Windblown dust from agricultural land 12:30 p.m, May 3,2010 Washington Washington --http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  15. Anthropogenic ? Unpaved Road Paved Road Agriculture Construction Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  16. Fugitive Dust Dust Contribution to PM “Other” Chemical Splitting of Fugitive Dust Spring Tong et al., Environ. Int. 2009) Fall Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  17. Two CMAQ runs: with and without anthropogenic dust emissions; • Dust contribution is calculated from the difference; Fugitive Dust contribution < 1mg/m3 Fugitive Dust contribution > 2mg/m3 CMAQ vs. IMPROVE SW Observations (January 2002) Tong et al., Environ. Int. 2009) Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  18. NAM Physics/Assimilation Upgrades : June 2014 • Replace legacy GFDL radiation with RRTM • Modified gravity wave drag/mountain blocking • More responsive to subgrid-scale terrain variability • Target : Improve synoptic performance w/o adversely impacting 10-m wind forecasts • New version of Betts-Miller-Janjic convection • Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less • Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent • Ferrier-Aligo microphysics • advection of rime factor • Modified treatment of snow cover/depth • Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less • Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent • Reduce roughness length for 5 vegetation types • Target : Improved 10-m wind in eastern CONUS • Hybrid variational-ensemble GSI analysis Courtesy: Eric Rogers, Environ. Modeling Center NCEP/NOAA Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  19. Real-time testing for up-coming implementation: Expr 2014 *Please see details on previous slide Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  20. Weather.com Improved fidelity Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  21. 1st Principle approach to holistically improve PM forecast • Proactively looking into NCEP’s push for high resolution NWP: • Participate actively in field campaigns e.g. DISCOVER-AQ and SOAS • Guide vertical and speciation profiles by measurements • Proactively working with NCEP to understand NAM/GFS/NGAC changes • Feedback responsively and responsibly to strengthen EMC/ARL partnership • Integrate meteorological and chemical weather forecasting • Proactively contributing to CMAQ forum and module development • Reinforce the culture e.g., dust module (2012) & fine resolution forecasting • Complement the SIP and regulatory community with forecasting niche (e.g. D.A.) • Proactively promoting satellite products for dynamic emission modeling • Improve climatology e.g. dust source region, forest fuel loading .. • Improve methodology for dynamic adjustment: e.g. OMI NOx • Proactively seeking verification metric applicable for fine resolution forecast • Overcome the hit or miss simplistic metric • Overcome the single value criterion but open to stochastic and tendency metric Contact: Pius.Lee@noaa.gov • http:www.arl.noaa.gov Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  22. Acknowledgement • James Crawford, NASA, Langley, VA. • Christopher Loughner & Ken Pickering NASA, Greenbelt, MD. • Alex Guenther, NCAR, CO. • Eric Rogers, EMC, NCEP, NOAA Glossary can be found under Air Resources Laboratory 22 National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

  23. Monthly CO emission from wildfire Air Resources Laboratory National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

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