太阳活动影响梅雨的 一种可能途经 李 崇 银 全国 空间学术会议， 2009 年 10 月，南京

1. 太阳活动影响梅雨的一种可能途经李 崇 银全国空间学术会议，2009年10月，南京

2. Outline 1. Introduction 2. Solar Activity and Stratospheric Circulation 3. AO and Stratospheric Circulation Anomaly 4. AO and Mei-yu in China 5. Conclusion

3. 1. Introduction Ps 10.7cm irradiance Labitzke, Van Loon, 1990) Temperature Sunspot cycle and location of the subtropical ridge over eastern Australia (R. E. Thresher, 2002) 太阳活动的影响过程需要很好研究

4. 2. Used data The 10.7cm solar radiant flux data ECMWF reanalysis data Mei-yu data

5. 3. Solar Activity and Circulation Anomalies in Stratosphere

6. HS= high (strong) solar activity LS= low (weak) solar activity The Expression of Solar Activity According to the 10.7cm solar radio flux，we can get high and low solar active year as follows: HS: 1958, 59, 78, 79, LS: 1962, 63, 64, 74, 80, 81, 88, 89, 75, 76, 84, 85, 90, 91, 2001 86, 95, 96

7. Temporal variation of standardized indices of the 10.7cm solar radiant flux in winter Strong Weak There are 11 years respectively for strong and weak

8. Composite geopotential height anomalies at 10 hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

9. Composite zonal wind anomalies at 10 hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

10. Composite temperature anomalies at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

11. Composite ozone mass mixing ratio anomalies at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

12. Latitude-pressure section of the zonal wind anomalies for high and low solar activity + - - +

13. Potential vorticity at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity case

14. Corresponding to strong / weak solar activity, the stratospheric circulation has evident opposite variation, particularly in the mid-high latitude.

15. 4. Relationship betweenthe AO and Stratosphere Circulation Anomaly

16. AO (Arctic Oscillation) Thompson and Wallace（2000）found that the SLP field in the high latitude has variation out-of-phase to that in the middle latitude and this pattern is symmetric longitudinally. It was named the Arctic Oscillation, or the Northern Annular Mode (NAM).

17. Correlation between AO index in March and zonal mean geopotential height in February

18. Correlation between AO index in March • and 30hPa height in February (c) EOF3 of 30hPa height in February（9.5%） (b) EOF1 of 30hPa height in February（57.6%） Correl. Coeff. with AO The troposphere AO in March is closely related to the pattern of EOF1 and EOF3 of 30hPa height in February

19. The regression EP flux in February using the PC1 Corresponding to positive PC1，there is downward wave action in（30－40oN）from 30hPa to 100hPa. It maybe affect the troposphere circulation

20. AO与平流层的关系 The regression EP flux in February using the PC3 Corresponding to positive PC3，there is downward wave action in（60－90oN）from 30hPa to 100hPa. It maybe affect the troposphere circulation

21. AO index in March has evident correlation with the stratospheric circulation in February. There is downward wave actionfrom the stratosphere and will affect the troposphere circulation in mid-high latitude.

22. 5. Relationship between the AO and Mei-Yu

23. Temporal variation of standardized indices of the 10.7cm solar radiant flux in winter Strong Weak There are 11 years respectively for strong and weak

24. The standard difference summer rainfall in China for strong and weak solar activity year

25. 强、弱太阳活动年850hPa风场的差值（图中所显示的是通过90％信度检验的值）强、弱太阳活动年850hPa风场的差值（图中所显示的是通过90％信度检验的值）

26. Wavelet analysis for sunspots Wavelet analysis for Mei-yu in China

27. A cross wavelet analysis for the sunspots and Mei-yu in China

28. Correlation coefficients between monthly AO indices and mei-yu precipitation from 1958 to 2002. (* indicatesthe 95% significance level)

29. AO与梅雨的关系 AO index and Mei-yu index EOF1 of the SLP （ERA-40，20-90N） in March（AO index） Negative Correlation

30. Correlation between the Mei-yu and zonal mean geopotential height in March（1958－2002） AO mode 99％ 95％ (significance)

31. AO与梅雨的关系 Correlation between the Mei-yu and SLP/geopotential height in March SLP 500hPa SLP 500hPa Correlation between the AO index and SLP/geopotential height in March The Mei-yu is closely related to the AO mode in March

32. The regression circulation in summer using the AO index in March Zonal mean wind（110－150E） 850-200hPa thickness Corresponding to positive AO，there is a cold center in East Asia and downward motion over the mid-downstream of Yangtze River

33. The regression 850hPa wind in summer using the AO index (positive) in March

34. The Mei-yu is clearly related to solar activity in decadal time scale. AO anomaly could cause summer circulation anomalies, which is favourable or unfavourable to the Mei-yu rainfall.

35. 6. Conclusion --- A Schematic Diagram Solar Activity Stratospheric Circulation Anomaly AO Anomaly Mei-yu Anomaly

36. Solar Activity High Low - + AO Positive Negative Mei-yu Decrease Increase

37. Thank You

38. 太阳活动 地磁场 宇宙线 紫外线 直接辐射 改变地壳内部 磁流体运动 平流层 臭氧 核幔边界上的 地磁能量改变 云场 SST 改变地球自转 改变大气角动量 对流层大气环流改变 ? 气候变化

39. AO与平流层的关系 用PC1回归的3月对流层高度场 SLP 500hPa 100hPa 2月30hPa的PC1与3月对流层的AO模态有密切关系

40. AO与平流层的关系 用PC3回归的3月对流层高度场 SLP 500hPa 100hPa 2月30hPa的PC3与3月对流层的AO形势有密切关系

41. Potential Vorticity at 10hPa in Winter for High and Low Solar Activity Case

42. Solar Activity $$$ $$$ Geomagnetic Cosmic ray Ultraviolet Direct radiation Geomagnetic energy in C-M boundary Magnetic fluid motion in the Earth. Cloud Ozone STA Rotation of the Earth Atmospheric circulation in the troposphere Atmospheric angular momentum ? Climate Variation

43. （一）AO与梅雨的关系 Moving correlation between the AO and Mei-yu AO in Mar. AO in May Gong indicated the Mei-yu has good correlation to AO in May （1900－1998）. But during (1958－2002) ，the Mei-yu has good correlation to AO in March. We will consider the correlation between the Mei-yu and AO in March。