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Skill of GFS Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

Skill of GFS Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts. Selected US MOPEX Basins. Purpose. GFS Forecast Events. Correlation as a Measure of Skill. Example Correlation Plot for North Fork American River, CA. Forecast Period Definition.

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Skill of GFS Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

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  1. Skill of GFS Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts Selected US MOPEX Basins

  2. Purpose

  3. GFS Forecast Events

  4. Correlation as a Measure of Skill

  5. Example Correlation Plot for North Fork American River, CA Forecast Period Definition This plot shows how the coefficient of correlation between GFS forecast precipitation and observed precipitation varies during the year, depending on the event being forecast. This plot was constructed for each of the 24 selected MOPEX basins. Separate correlation plots were made for precipitation, tmin and tmaax.

  6. Selected MOPEX Basins USGS ID Long Lat SqMi Station Name 01076500 -71.6861 43.7592 622 PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT PLYMOUTH, NH 01567000 -77.1294 40.4783 3354 JUNIATA RIVER AT NEWPORT, PA. 02135000 -79.2472 34.0569 2790 LITTLE PEE DEE R. AT GALIVANTS FERRY, S.C. 02236000 -81.3828 29.0081 3070 ST. JOHNS RIVER NR DELAND, FLA. 02349500 -84.0439 32.2981 2900 FLINT RIVER AT MONTEZUMA, GA. 02486000 -91.0267 30.4042 3171 PEARL RIVER AT JACKSON, MS 03251500 -84.2667 38.5978 2326 LICKING RIVER AT MCKINNEYSBURG, KY. 05520500 -87.6686 41.1600 2294 KANKAKEE RIVER AT MOMENCE, IL 06192500 -110.5653 45.5972 3551 YELLOWSTONE RIVER NEAR LIVINGSTON, MT. 06340500 -101.6217 47.2853 2240 KNIFE RIVER AT HAZEN, ND 06600500 -96.3119 42.5767 886 Floyd River at James, IA 06847000 -99.8931 40.1200 1650 BEAVER CREEK NEAR BEAVER CITY, NEBR. 07068000 -90.8475 36.6219 2038 CURRENT RIVER AT DONIPHAN,MO. 07196500 -94.9233 35.9228 959 ILLINOIS RIVER NEAR TAHLEQUAH, OK 08055500 -96.9442 32.9658 2459 ELM FORK TRINITY RIVER NR CARROLLTON, TX 09132500 -107.4336 38.9258 526 NORTH FORK GUNNISON RIVER NEAR SOMERSET, CO. 09292500 -110.3408 40.5119 132 YELLOWSTONE RIVER NEAR ALTONAH, UTAH 09497500 -110.4992 33.7981 2849 SALT RIVER NEAR CHRYSOTILE, ARIZ. MILE 34.8 11138500 -120.1672 34.8397 281 SISQUOC RIVER NEAR SISQUOC, CALIF. 11427000 -121.0228 38.9361 342 NF AMERICAN R A NORTH FORK DAM CA 11532500 -124.0750 41.7917 613 SMITH R NR CRESCENT CITY CA 12413500 -116.3069 47.5639 1220 COEUR D'ALENE RIVER NR CATALDO, IDAHO 12449500 -120.1150 48.3653 1301 METHOW RIVER AT TWISP, WA 14321000 -123.5542 43.5861 3683 UMPQUA RIVER NEAR ELKTON, OREG.

  7. Skill of GFS Cumulative Pecipitation Forecasts

  8. Skill of GFS Average Tmin Forecasts

  9. Skill of GFS average Tmax Forecasts

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