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Hydro-meteorology: Providing solutions to weather conundrums

Hydro-meteorology: Providing solutions to weather conundrums. John Henz, Certified Consulting Meteorologist or C.C.M. HDR H ydro- M eteorological S ervices El Nino and La Nina confusing the drought What will Winter 02-03 hold? Drought? Average Or Excess Precipitation?

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Hydro-meteorology: Providing solutions to weather conundrums

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  1. Hydro-meteorology:Providing solutions to weather conundrums John Henz,Certified Consulting Meteorologist or C.C.M. HDR Hydro-Meteorological Services • El Nino and La Nina confusing the drought • What will Winter 02-03 hold? Drought? Average Or Excess Precipitation? • Fire, Mud, Floods: what to do • Precipitation questions

  2. Way too much plus mud after fire!!!!!

  3. “Too much” again!

  4. “Too Little” / “Too Late” for Agriculture!

  5. Frederic Remington knew the value of water in the West “The Fight for the Waterhole” 1903

  6. So did Stanley Kubrick in 2001: Space Odysseythe more things change the more they stay the same!

  7. Colorado’s Water wars have Started! • August 12, Rocky Mountain News headline • Golden “at war” with downstream users; loses • Continued “drought-like” conditions: will they persist or is a change developing? • What will Winter 02-03 hold? Drought? Average Or Excess Precipitation? • How far could we look ahead if we wanted?

  8. “conundrum”: a puzzle or mystery usually solved by a riddle.

  9. Three men agree to share a cab from the airport into town. When they arrive, the meter reads $25. Each man gives the driver a $10 bill. She hands them five $1 bills as change. Each man takes one of the $1 bills. They give the driver the remaining two $1 bills as a tip. Each man has now spent nine dollars and the driver has two dollars for a total of $29. Where is the other dollar? Your challenge is to explain this paradox

  10. Three water suppliers face a severe drought.They each ask a meteorologist how much snow will fall in the mountains. One meteorologist says 70% of normal; the drought is in control and shows no signs of departing. The next meteorologist says 100% of normal: the drought is waning, El Nino is coming, but it’ll take two winters to catch up. The final meteorologist says 120% of normal; El Nino will chase the drought away. Your challenge is to who to believe The Water Supplier Conundrum

  11. What’s ahead for the WY02/03?

  12. Where we are now! Very, very dry!

  13. Here’s what NWS expects: is where we’ve been?

  14. El Nino/La NinaStorm Tracks • El Nino tends to bewet during winter • La Nina tends to bedry during winter • La Na Da: Neutraltends to flip/flopdepending on cycle

  15. Why has it been so dry and warm?La Na Da’s Split storm track around Colorado.

  16. TheEl Nino/La NinaCycle is a dynamic

  17. Summed number of years per decadethe basin average precip is +/- 2” of normal.Notice the in-sync(’90-’50) and out of sync(’60-’90} cycles

  18. Is Colorado Decadal Precipitation Cyclic with El Nino and La Nina?

  19. So how have El Nino and La Nina’s impacted Colorado winter precipitation? • La Nina’s tend to produce below normal snow packs and meager summer rains. Favor development of multiple dry year sequences or droughts • El Nino’s tend to support average to above average winter snow packs and above average spring general storm rain/snow and summer monsoon rains for 6-18 months • La NaDa’s can go either way! (The key?)

  20. All La Nina’s are not created equal!

  21. La NaDa or neutral periods are very different!

  22. Current 01/02 El Nino in dashed black :Can you spot a trend?

  23. 82/83, 91/92, 95/95 and 97/98 El Nino’s Can you see the differences?

  24. 00/02 El Nino’s development. Compares closest to 86/87 El Nino

  25. Three El Nino’s: three different patterns!

  26. 00/02 El Nino’s development. Compares closest to 86/88 El Nino

  27. Is the 86/87 El Nino an analog” for 01/?It would be nice but differences exist.

  28. Denver El vs La:on average only • El Nino on top“looks wetter”and is esp. Spring • La Nina on bot.“looks drier” andis esp. Oct-Mar • What about La Na Da’s?

  29. Grand Jct. El vs. LaOn average only • El Nino on top“looks wetter”and is esp. Falland Spring • La Nina on bot.“looks drier” andis esp. Mar-May • What about La Na Da’s?

  30. New Mexico:El NinoAvg Jan-Mar Precip • El Nino = Much wetter than normal • 129% of normalin the Northwest • 200% of normal in the SE plains

  31. Colorado:El NinoAvg. Jan-Mar Precip. • El Nino = Moist, i.e., +/- 15% of normal • Colorado West of CD:88% of normalEast of the CDSouth Platte, San Luis,and Arkansas: 109%to 117% of normal • Far east Plains: 140%

  32. Wyoming:El NinoAvg Jan-Mar Precip • El Nino = Dry side of normal • Plains: 74%(NE) to 93% (SE) of normal • Mountains: 80% to 94%of normal • “West Slope: 80-87%

  33. El Nino Wet in NM or Dry in Mt

  34. El Nino Wet in NM or Dry in Mt: Hmmmm

  35. What’s ahead for the WY02/03?Work in progress

  36. What will Winter 02-03 hold? Drought? Average Or Excess Precipitation? • A moderate El Nino is developing. • West of the Continental Divide snow-pack should reach 80% in Colorado River basin and up to 120% normal in Southwest basins • East of the Continental Divide not sure yet.NO strong signal yet!Averages support 110% of normal but range is 60% to 130%Work in progress

  37. What will Winter 03-04 hold? Strong El Nino? La Na Da? Or La Nina? • Key to drought recovery of our reservoir storage will be two or more normal to wet winters in a row. • One wet winter will not be enough especially if we go into another “dry period” in parts of the state. • East of the Divide soil moisture values are very low and we need the return of winter and spring general snow and rain storms. It has been 9 years since we had both significant winter and spring plains snow. Will they both return?La Na Da research is the key!Work in progress

  38. How far could we look ahead if we wanted? • Extended trend analyses of tree ring data • Eigenvector analyses of precipitation extreme where basin average precipitation is > 2” above or below normal • Physical cause/effect data base partitioning of storm tracks, jet streams and La Na Da’s • Next a “50-year” experimental trend outlook for Colorado precipitation. • Note this outlook is a work in progress!Not ready for prime time only discussion

  39. Summed number of years per decade the state river basin average precip is +/- 2” of normal.Work in progress

  40. If this trend analysis is correct, more dry than wet decades lie ahead • 2000-2009: early drought tempered by wet mid-decade • 2010’s: Significant drought possible • 2020’s give a “moist breather” early • Mid-2020’s to early 2050’s a 30-year period of very dry conditions across Colorado and the western US.Work in progress

  41. Three men agree to share a cab from the airport into town. When they arrive, the meter reads $25. Each man gives the driver a $10 bill. She hands them five $1 bills as change. Each man takes one of the $1 bills. They give the driver the remaining two $1 bills as a tip. Each man has now spent nine dollars and the driver has two dollars for a total of $29. Where is the other dollar? No money has been lost only the meaning and interpretation of the words!

  42. The storm .. Is El Nino coming?

  43. Yes. The end!

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