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Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment

Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment. Results of the Southeast Europe Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission Planning Uncertainties in the 2020 Timeframe Davor Bajs Energy Institute of Croatia November 11-12, 2009.

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Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment

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  1. Regional Transmission Network Development: Implications for Trade and Investment Results of the Southeast Europe Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission Planning Uncertainties in the 2020 Timeframe DavorBajs Energy Institute of Croatia November 11-12, 2009

  2. STUDY ON PLANNING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM DAVOR BAJS GORAN MAJSTROVIC ENERGY INSTITUTE HRVOJE POZAR Zagreb, CROATIA TRAJCE CEREPNALKOVSKI NEOTEL Skopje, MACEDONIA WORKSHOP REGIONAL TRANSMISSION NETWORK DEVELOPMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRADE AND INVESTMENT Istanbul, Turkey, November 11-12, 2009

  3. CONTENTS • SECI REGIONAL TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING GROUP • HISTORY • MODELS • STUDIES • TRANSMISSION NETWORK PLANNING • VERTICALLY INTEGRATED UTILITIES • OPEN MARKET ENVIRONMENT • EXPERIENCES IN THE SEE • PLANNING CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGY • UNCERTAINTIES IN A TRANSMISSION NETWORK PLANNING • DESCRIPTION - EXAMPLE • UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SEE POWER SYSTEMS • STUDY ON PLANNING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM • SCENARIOS • IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS • CONCLUSION

  4. SECI REGIONAL TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING GROUP • HISTORY • SOUTHEAST EUROPE COORDINATION INITIATIVE – 1998 • REGIONAL TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING PROJECT (USAID) – 2001 • ALBANIA, BULGARIA, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, CROATIA, FYROM, MONTENEGRO, ROMANIA, SERBIA, UNMIK • TURKEY, SLOVENIA, ITALY • MODELS FOR 2005, 2010, 2015 AND 2020: PSS/E FORMAT, STEADY STATE, DYNAMIC, SHORT-CIRCUIT (WINTER PEAK, SUMMER OFF-PEAK) • STUDIES • REGIONAL ELECTRICITY INTERCONNECTION STUDY – 2002 • GENERATION INVESTMENT STUDY (GIS): PSS/E ANALYSIS AND RESULTS – 2004 • TRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT CRITERIA – 2007 • EVALUATION OF INVESTMENTS IN TRANSMISSION NETWORK TO SUSTAIN GENERATION AND MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN SEE – 2007

  5. TRANSMISSION NETWORK PLANNING • VERTICALLY INTEGRATED UTILITIES • INTEGRATED PRODUCTION, TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION PLANNING • OPTIMIZATION ON NATIONAL LEVEL • AVAILABLE DATA • UNCERTAINTIES (LOAD GROWTH, HYDROLOGY, GENERATORS AND NETWORK AVAILABILITY) • OPEN MARKET ENVIRONMENT • REGULATED TRANSMISSION ACTIVITIES • SEPARATED COMPANIES • MARKET TRANSACTIONS (UNPREDICABLE FOR A LONG-TIME FRAME) • SECURITY VS. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY • PLANNING ABOVE NATIONAL LEVEL (COORDIATION BETWEEN TSOs) • UNCERTAINTIES (POWER PLANTS CONSTRUCTION AND DISPATCH, ELECTRICITY PRICES, MARKET TRANSACTIONS, REGULATORY REQUESTS, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES etc.)

  6. TRANSMISSION NETWORK PLANNING – cont. • EXPERIENCES IN THE SEE • 9 TSOs • NATIONAL GRID CODES • LACK OF REGIONAL GRID CODE • DIFFERENT PLANNING CRITERIA (HARMONIZATION IS NEEDED) • MARKET ISSUES - NOT SATISFACTORY TREATED • PLANNING CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGY • MOSTLY USED (N-1) TECHNICAL CRITERION • LACK OF ECONOMIC CRITERIA • POWER SYSTEM SIMULATIONS, MULTI-SCENARIO ANALYSES • SECI STUDY “TRANSMISSION NETWORK INVESTMENT CRITERIA” – SUGGESTION OF COMMON TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC CRITERIA FROM REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE • TRANSMISSION PROJECTS PRIORATIZATION FROM REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

  7. UNCERTAINTIES IN A TRANSMISSION NETWORK PLANNING New situation 1 – different generators bidding behavior Initial situation – overloading of the line 1-2 (transmission capacity of all lines 300 MW) New situation 2 – new generator in the node 2

  8. UNCERTAINTIES IN A TRANSMISSION NETWORK PLANNING – SEE POWER SYSTEMS • THE MOST IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTIES: • UNKNOWN POWER PLANTS SIZE AND LOCATIONS • LOAD GROWTH • WIND FARMS • FUTURE MARKET TRANSACTIONS • UNKNOWN GENERATORS DISPATCH • ELECTRICITY PRICE What is the most influential uncertainty in your country related to a transmission network planning?

  9. STUDY ON PLANNING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM • OBJECTIVES : • IDENTIFICATION OF THE MOST IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTIES IN EACH SEE COUNTRY • ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF IMPACT OF DIFFERENT UNCERTAINTIES ON PLANNED TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS AND SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM. • SCENARIOS (73): • POWER PLANTS CONSTRUCTION PLAN • CONNECTION OF ITALIAN MARKET WITH SEE MARKET • CONNECTION OF TURKISH MARKET WITH SEE MARKET • INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES POWER BALANCE • BRANCHES AND GENERATORS AVAILABILITY • PLANNING TIME FRAME

  10. STUDY ON PLANNING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM – cont. • POWER PLANTS CONSTRUCTION PLAN: • TPP KOSOVO C (2120 MW) • NPP KRŠKO 2 (1080 MW) • PSHPP KOZJAK (440 MW) • WPPs IN B&H, CROATIA, SERBIA, MONTENEGRO, ROMANIA, BULGARIA (4600 MW) • CONNECTION OF ITALIAN AND SEE MARKETS: • HVDC ALBANIA – ITALY (1000 MW) • HVDC MONTENEGRO – ITALY (1000 MW) • HVDC CROATIA – ITALY (1000 MW) • CONNECTION OF TURKISH AND SEE MARKETS: • HVDC TURKEY – ROMANIA (1000 MW)

  11. STUDY ON PLANNING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM – cont. • COUNTRIES POWER BALANCE: • ALBANIA (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT) • BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT) • BULGARIA (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT) • CROATIA (ZERO BALANCE, IMPORT) • MACEDONIA (ZERO BALANCE, IMPORT) • MONTENEGRO (IMPORT, EXPORT) • ROMANIA (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT) • SERBIA (ZERO BALANCE, IMPORT) • SLOVENIA (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT) • TURKEY (IMPORT, EXPORT) • UNMIK (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT)

  12. STUDY ON PLANNING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM – cont. • IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS 2015:

  13. STUDY ON PLANNING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM – cont. • IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS 2020:

  14. STUDY ON PLANNING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SEE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM – cont. • THE MOST CRITICAL LINES AND TRANSFORMERS IN THE REGION • OHL 220 kV DIVACA (SLO) – PADRICIANO (I) • OHL 220 kV PEHLIN (HR) – DIVAČA (SLO) • TR 400/220 kV TREBINJE • OHL 220 kV ZAKUCAC (HR) – IMOTSKI (HR)/RAMA (BIH) • TR 400/220 kV MARITZA • OHL 400 kV CONSTANTA – CERNAVODA • TR 400/220 kV ROSIORI • OHL 220 kV UNGEHENI - IERNUT

  15. CONCLUSION • SEE REGIONAL TRANSMISSION SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT: • STRONG INTERCONNECTIONS EVEN TODAY • CONGESTION MANAGEMENT – COORDINATED AUCTIONING – HIGHER NTC VALUES • INTERNAL NETWORK REINFORCEMENTS • NEW PROJECTS IF TECHNICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE • STRONGER REGULATORY AGENCIES • INDEPENDENT TSOs • COORDINATION IN PLANNING • HARMONIZATION OF PLANNING STANDARDS

  16. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION DAVOR BAJS dbajs@eihp.hr www.eihp.hr/~dbajs GORAN MAJSTROVIC gmajstro@eihp.hr www.eihp.hr/~gmajstro ENERGY INSTITUTE HRVOJE POZAR ZAGREB, CROATIA

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