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Overview of Natural Gas Power Generation Future Scenarios

Overview of Natural Gas Power Generation Future Scenarios. WORKSHOP ON TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS FORWARD FOR CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE ON NATURAL GAS POWER SYSTEMS April 22, 2014 Revis W. James Director, Generation R&D. EPRI Overview. Mission

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Overview of Natural Gas Power Generation Future Scenarios

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  1. Overview of Natural Gas Power Generation Future Scenarios WORKSHOP ON TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS FORWARD FOR CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE ON NATURAL GAS POWER SYSTEMS April 22, 2014 Revis W. JamesDirector, Generation R&D

  2. EPRI Overview Mission • Assure long-term availability of affordable, reliable, and environmentally responsible electricity through research, development and demonstration. Key Facts • 450+ participants in more than 30 countries • EPRI members generate approximately 90% of the electricity in the United States • International funding of nearly 25% of EPRI’s research, development and demonstrations • Non-profit, independent, collaborative R&D institution

  3. Generation Technology OptionsPolicy Constraints • CO2emissions reduction • Existing limits(e.g. SOx, NOx, Hg, thermal pollution) • Water availability • Environmental impact of renewables (e.g. avian, bats) • Policy-driven technology choices (e.g. renewables)

  4. Generation Technology OptionsTechnical Requirements • Meet demand • Maintain reliability • Minimize cost • Recognize long lead times for technology deployment. • Hedge technology risks

  5. Natural Gas - Strengths • Low NG prices make CTCCs attractive • breakpoint with coal regionally dependent, but generally in $4-$6/mmBtu range • Reduced fossil plant emissions, including CO2 • More operational flexibility compared to coal units. • Smaller capital outlay for new capacity, can be constructed more quickly, lower water requirements compared to coal/nuclear • Delays need to invest in more expensive options (e.g. coal, nuclear) • Gives lead time to develop more advanced technologies in for other generation technologies.

  6. Natural Gas – Challenges • Dynamic combustion control • Balancing efficient operations w/emissions control • CTCC cycling/HRSG reliability • Renewable portfolio standards + increasing role of demand response, end-use efficiency => increased cycling of CTCCs => performance, reliability issues • Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSGs) particularly important, problematic • Assurance of supply • Concerns regarding increasing opposition to fracking. • Hedging against future high NG prices, price volatility • Substantially increased demand for natural gas from the power sector could significantly drive prices up. • ~55% of electricity production costs for CTCCs = fuel cost.

  7. Trending Toward Higher EfficiencyImproved Metallurgy, Coatings, Cooling, Aerodynamics, Size Majority of existing units

  8. R&D Focus AreasImproved Efficiency, Flexibility, and Durability • Fuel Flexibility • LNG and Natural Gas Variability • Lower NOx and CO Emissions/Combustion Dynamics • Operational Flexibility • Fast Startup and Shutdown • Frequent Cycling (Many Starts Per Year) • Part Load Efficiency and Low Load Emissions • Load Following and Frequency Control • System/Component Durability • Preventive Maintenance • Repair and Replacement Costs • Forced/Unscheduled Maintenance, Catastrophic Failures

  9. Evaluate the performance and cost impact of applying post-combustion capture (PCC) to today’s NGCC Cases considered: Reference 556-MWe (Net) base NGCC plant Retrofit post combustion plant to base plant New build NGCC plant designed with capture New build NGCC plant designed with capture + exhaust gas recycle (EGR). PCC technology = advanced amine solvent (Aker Clean Carbon) Conclusions Retrofitting is more expensive than integrated design. Key sensitivities Engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) contingency Unit capacity factor Overall levelized cost of electricity more sensitive to fuel cost than to avoided CO2 cost R&D Focus – CTCC + CCS

  10. Overview from Electricity Sector Perspective

  11. Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity

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