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August Member Conference Call

presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. August Member Conference Call. (2011). (1993). Quarterly U.S. Real GDP Growth 2007-2012. Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013. Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2007-2013. Monthly Change In Thousands. Data Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, 2013.

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August Member Conference Call

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  1. presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. August Member Conference Call (2011) (1993)

  2. Quarterly U.S. Real GDP Growth2007-2012 Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013

  3. Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment2007-2013 Monthly Change In Thousands Data Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, 2013

  4. New Home Sales1963-2013 Data Source: US Census Bureau, 2013

  5. Mortgage Applications For Refinance, 2007-2013 Index 100= 1990 Data Source: Bloomberg, 2013

  6. Mortgage Applications for Purchase, 2007-2013 Index 100= 1990 Data Source: Bloomberg, 2013

  7. Decline in Home Ownership Rates Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013

  8. Shiller Price Earnings Ratio1881-2013 Black Tuesday 24.46 Black Monday Data Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm, 2013

  9. Skyscrapers and Major Tops Data Source: http://mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae8_1_4.pdf, Wikipedia, 2013

  10. China, Plans to Build Skyscrapers, 1997-2017 Data Source: Barclays, 2013

  11. Bull Market DurationsS&P 500, 1956-2013 -26% -37% -50% Data Source: Yahoo! Finance, 2013

  12. Dow Megaphone Pattern1995-2015 E C A B D Data Source: Yahoo! Finance, 2013

  13. Interest Rates in the U.S.1800-2000 Source: “Uncovered Interest-Rate Parity over the Past Two Centuries,” James R. Lothian, Liuren Wu, 2005

  14. Simple Four Season Economic Cycle Eighty Years in Modern Times Consumer Prices/ Inflation Generation Spending Boom Stocks/ Economy Summer Spring Fall Winter Source: Dent Research

  15. Cell Phone S-Curve1994-2008 Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 99% 99.9% 90 80 70 60 50 50% 40 30 20 10 1% 10% 0 Percent Adoption 2008 2007 2004 2003 1999 1997 1996 1994 1991 1984 2001 2008 1994 Source: Masterlink

  16. The Automobile S-Curve1914-1928 Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 99% 99.9% 90 80 70 60 50 50% 40 30 20 10 1% .1% 10% 0 Percent Adoption Urban Households 1900 1907 1942 1921 1935 1914 1928 Installment Financing 90% Urban Adoption Cars only for the Rich Model T Design Assembly Line

  17. Principles for Surviving and Prospering in the Winter Season • Cash and cash flow are critical • Focus on segments that you can clearly dominate • Develop a clear definition of your customers • Get lean and mean fast • Defer major capital expenditures • Focus on short-term investments that increase sales or cut cost • Sell non-strategic real estate, lease instead • Cut weak employees now

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