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FORESIGHT AT HORIZONS

Steffen Christensen and Peter Gibaut. Policy Horizons Canada. FORESIGHT AT HORIZONS. June 14, 2017. A r tificial Intelligence. Peer-to-Peer Networks. Virtual Telepresence. New P roduction T echnologies. Big Data and Ubiquitous Computing. The Economy is becoming digital.

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FORESIGHT AT HORIZONS

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  1. Steffen Christensen and Peter Gibaut Policy Horizons Canada FORESIGHT AT HORIZONS June 14, 2017

  2. ArtificialIntelligence

  3. Peer-to-PeerNetworks

  4. VirtualTelepresence

  5. New ProductionTechnologies

  6. BigDataandUbiquitousComputing

  7. The Economy is becoming digital

  8. Work is moving online

  9. Civic identity is becoming fluid

  10. citizens’ expectations are changing

  11. The Horizons Foresight Method

  12. FORESIGHT RIGOUR SCALE

  13. Scanning What? So what?

  14. SYSTEM MAp

  15. THE CONE OF PLAUSIBILITY

  16. Future of 2030: FORESIGHT SCHEMA Tomorrow is the same as today Futures implicit in policy Today Trend-based expected future Past Foresight futures Informed expected future

  17. All these happen simultaneously: INFORMED EXPECTED FUTURE 2008 2017 2032 Future Climate change Past Today Future 1 Future 2 Today Canadian demographics Past Future 1 Future 2 Today Past Chinese economy ICT/Muddle ICT/ ICT/ ICT/ Information technology Today Past ? A/Muddle A/ A/ A/ Automation ?? Today Past

  18. What is a change driver?A change driver is a significant disruptive force that is present in all scenarios, although it may have different impacts in each scenario. Change drivers influence major components of a system. As they interact with one or more parts of the system, those parts change or behave in a new and/or unexpected way. This interaction is one of the sources of surprise and insight in foresight.

  19. Change driver examples Imagine it is 1982The number of and applications for personal computers are growing Anti-smoking sentiment is growing Charter of Rights and Freedoms promotes diversity China’s Reform and Opening-up Policy

  20. Change driver impacts 2nd order impacts Factors amplifying or dampeningthe driver Change Driver An influence cascade diagram is used to explore the potential impacts of a change driver 3rd order impacts 1st order impacts

  21. cascade DIAGRAM

  22. cascade DIAGRAM • 1 • 2 • 3 • 4 • 5 • 6 • 7 • 8 • 9 • 10 • 11 • 12 • 13

  23. Change drivers / Moteurs de changement1. Future of work / L’Avenir du travail 2. Future of personal and commercial transportation / L'avenir du transport personnel et commercial 3. a borderless digital world / Un monde numérique sans frontiere 4. Algorithms run the world / Les algorithmes menent le monde 5. Canadians can live to 110 / Les Canadiens peuvent vivre jusqu'a 110 ans

  24. Thank you!www.horizons.gc.ca@Wikisteffand @PeterGibaut

  25. @CanadaBeyon150 #CanadaBeyond150

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