Riverside County Class of 2009 Dropout and Graduation Rates

1. Riverside CountyClass of 2009 Dropout and Graduation Rates Shannon Wells, PhD

2. Terminology • Lost Transfer • District indicated student moving to another CA public school, but the state did not find a matching SSID in another school/district • Considered a Dropout • Dropout Re-Enrolled • District indicated student left with a dropout code but state found the same SSID in another school/district • Reduces dropout count

5. Dropout Data • Riverside County increased Lost Transfers by 126% • Statewide Lost Transfers increased by 94% • Above suggests possible data issue • Possible miscoding/misunderstanding by districts • CALPADS incorrect interpretation of data

6. Exit Codes: Graduates, Completers, Non-Dropouts Graduate Completer Non-Dropout • E125: Exited SPED receiving certificate of completion • E130: Died • T160: Transferred to CA public school* • T165: Transferred to CA public school discipline* • T167: Transferred to CA Alt Ed Program – non discipline* • T180: Transferred to private school • T200: Transferred to school outside CA • T240: Moved to another country • T260: Left to enroll in adult ed program • T280: Left, enrolled in college • T310: Left entered health care facility • T370: Entered institution not primarily academic (military, job corps, justice system, etc.) working towards diploma • E410: Withdrew medical reasons • N470: Pre-enrolled, never attended • 480 Promoted (matriculated) • E490: Exited summer school or intersession, but will return *Can turn into Lost Transfers • 100: Graduated from HS • 120: Special Ed Certificate of completion 250: Adult Ed HS Diploma 320: GED 330: Passed CHSPE

7. Exit Codes: Dropouts 104: Completed all graduation requirements, but did not pass CAHSEE; and does not have an IEP or 504 Plan E140: Withdrew and no evidence student is in an academic program T270: Student left to enroll in Adult Ed, then dropped out E300: Expelled and referred to another ed service, but did not show up 360: Completed grade 12 without completing graduation requirement T380: Entered institution not primarily academic (military, job corps, justice system, etc.) and not working towards high school diploma E400: Reason unknown N420: Student completed an academic year and did not return to school T460: Withdrew to enter home school setting, not affiliated with a school system Dropout codes should be verified by site and district administration before used

9. 2008 and 2009 Graduation Rates and 2010 AYP Target AYP Targets: 90% or 2010 90-Grad09/10 2011 90-Grad10/9 2012 90-Grad11/8

11. Important Dates: 2010 Graduation/Dropout* • February 4: Certify CALPADS • March 11: Preview counts of enrollment, dropout, and graduates • February 14-April 22: Amendment window • Make corrections to CALPADS data • Certify by April 22 • May 19: Preview new graduation/dropout rates • May 23: Public release of graduation/dropout *Used for 2011 AYP

12. Red Flags to Research Lost Transfers: Especially if increases in 2009 were noticed • Obtain list of Lost Transfer students • CALPADS • Available in State View reports • Research at site and district level to locate student or determine if student left California or the U.S. • Visit Neighbors • Talk to teachers and friends • If moved to another CA public school, verify SSID • If moved out of the country, state, or to private school, use appropriate exit codes

13. Red Flags to Research Cont. Students marked as dropouts • Obtain a list of all students with dropout exit codes • CALPADS • District IT department (submitted to CALPADS) • Things to look for • SWD not passing CAHSEE, marked as not passing CAHSEE (dropout) rather than completed • Students enrolled in Adult Ed programs, but reported to CALPADS as a dropout • Students with inconsistent exit codes from SIS to CALPADS • Students graduated, yet marked as a dropout • Students left the country, state, or entered private school

14. Who drops out and how can it be prevented? Dropout Research

15. Who is At-Risk of Dropping Out? Demographics Family/Personal Background Parental Involvement Academic History Behavioral Indicators Teacher Perceptions

16. Dropout Risk Factors • Socio-economic status and per-pupil spending • Socio-economic status is the best predictor • Lower ADA results in higher drop-out rates • Grade retention • Low grade point average, attendance, and credit deficiencies • Negative school climate and school size

17. Grade Retention and Dropout • Retaining students is often done without schools understanding the potential long-term effects of such practices • Retention as a remediation strategy does not improve school performance • Negatively related to almost all academic and social/behavioral indicators • 2nd greatest predictor of dropout • 70% retained students dropout (27% not retained) • Retention one grade level increased dropout risk by 40-50% • 2 grades increases by 90% • Retention in later grade levels increases risk even higher • Researchers suggest that it would be difficult to find another educational practice in which all the evidence is indisputably negative

18. Protective Factors • Relationships with teachers • Relevant/important coursework • Participation in extracurricular activities • Especially pronounced for at-risk students • More extracurricular activities increased likelihood of graduating • Provide a gateway into school social networks and promote individual interests, achievements, and goals

19. Dropout Risk Factors that Schools Can Control/Monitor • Grade retention policies and practices • Grades and courses • Poor grades • Course-taking patterns • Course offerings • Rate of attendance • School climate • Negative attitudes and beliefs about school • Policies that encourage dropout • Raising academic standards without providing supports, tracking students, and frequent use of suspension • Fair and consistent discipline policies • School connectedness • Caring/supportive adult • Alienation and participation in school/extracurricular activities

20. Questions? Shannon@KeyDataSys.com