Scheduling the Optimal Baseball Line-up

1. Scheduling the Optimal Baseball Line-up Stefanie Molin Christian Morales Sarah Daniels

2. Overview

3. Objective: Determine optimal starting lineup and batting order for a MLB team for one season • Select starting players for each game • 162 games per season • 33 primary players on roster • Determine batting position of each player in starting line-up • Maximize runs per game

4. Player Statistics OBP – On-Base Percentage SB – Stolen Bases RBI – Runs Batted In HR – Homeruns Singles, Doubles, Triples Rest Days Salary

5. Scheduling Problem

6. Scheduling Overview SPT-FM Algorithm Batting Position: “Jobs” Players: “Machines” Players are available if not resting Resting days determined with random number generator Assumption: Player’s salary directly reflects value in lineup

7. Assigning Positions • Primary and Secondary Positions • Some players can play multiple positions • Player only scheduled in secondary position if higher priority than primary position • Factors: • Relative importance of each position • Number of primary players available to play in each position • Highest salary player available (fastest machine) in each position is scheduled

8. Speed is priority 1st hitter should be “power hitter,” 2nd should be more consistent Player Evaluation

9. Best player OBP = 1.6×slugging Player Evaluation

10. Good hitters OBP becomes less important; HR becomes more important Player Evaluation

11. Worse hitter; on-base becomes more important Player Evaluation

12. Fast hitters at end of line-up Player Evaluation

13. Results

14. Line-up Evaluation Simulated total season runs for each line-up Average line-up scored 782 runs throughout season

15. Average Lineup

16. Optimality of Line-Up *Removing Derek Jeter

17. Optimality of Line-Up *Removing Lyle Overbay

18. Optimality of Batting Order *Random Permutation

19. Optimality of Batting Order *Random Permutation

20. Optimality of Batting Order *Random Permutation

21. Conclusion Our procedure produces the optimal line-up Deviations from line-up result in fewer runs over season Our 2013 line-up scored 782 runs vs. 650 runs scored by the Yankees last season

22. Next Steps… Create a more robust model that accounts for player injuries Verify our model by testing on other teams and past seasons