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Science of Climate Change and Impacts in Appalachia

Science of Climate Change and Impacts in Appalachia Elizabeth Crisfield Penn State University The Climate Project The chemistry of carbon dioxide O O C Mercury Venus Earth 333° F 855° F 59° F Roger Revelle Photo: San Diego Historical Society Land Mass in Southern Hemisphere

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Science of Climate Change and Impacts in Appalachia

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  1. Science of Climate Change and Impacts in Appalachia • Elizabeth Crisfield • Penn State University • The Climate Project

  2. The chemistry of carbon dioxide O O C

  3. Mercury Venus Earth 333° F 855° F 59° F

  4. Roger Revelle Photo: San Diego Historical Society

  5. Land Mass in Southern Hemisphere

  6. Land Mass in Northern Hemisphere

  7. Huascarán, Peru Lonnie G. Thompson

  8. Quelccaya Ice Cap Peru, 1977 Lonnie G. Thompson

  9. Lonnie G. Thompson

  10. 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (years BP) 300 280 260 240 CO2 (ppmv) CO2 Concentration 220 200 180 Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

  11. 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (years BP) 300 280 260 240 CO2 (ppmv) CO2 Concentration 220 200 180 Temp. in F° Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

  12. 2008 CO2 Concentration: 387 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (years BP) 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 CO2 (ppmv) CO2 Concentration 220 200 180 Temp. in F° Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

  13. 2009 CO2 Concentration: 387 After 50 more years at the current rate of increase Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

  14. Implications

  15. 1998 1900 Grinnel Glacier • Glacier National Park Photos: Matthes, GNP Archives; McKeon, USGS

  16. 2004 1914 Portage Glacier • Alaska Photos: NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch – WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org

  17. In WV, tulip poplar leaves were 6-10 days earlier in 2007 when average spring temperature was 5 degrees F warmer than 2006 or 2008

  18. Mosquitos Move to Higher Elevations Today Increased warmth has caused mountain glaciers to shrink in the tropics and temperate zones Before 1970 Cold temperatures caused freezing at high elevations and limited mosquitoes, mosquito-borne diseases and many plants to low altitudes Dengue Fever or Malaria Mosquitoes Some mosquitoes, mosquito-borne diseases and plants have migrated upward Plants

  19. Ixodes scapularis establishment in Canada 1971 – 2000 2020s 2050s 2080s Upper Temperature Limits for Ticks Source: Canadian Medical Association Journal, 11 March 2008

  20. Predictions • Global Circulation Models (GCMs) – predict weather • Most predictions use a specific model, and a specific emissions scenario (most researchers use IPCC scenarios) • There is some error in every model, but there is also uncertainty in our emission rates in the future • It’s difficult to put timeframes on the impacts because of this uncertainty

  21. Range predictions for tulip poplar From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

  22. Range predictions for sugar maple From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

  23. American Goldfinch From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

  24. Black Capped Chickadee From USFS Climate Change Atlas: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

  25. Trout Habitat From Flebbe, Roghair, and Bruggink, 2006.

  26. Feedbacks

  27. Pine Beetle Destruction • Grandby, Colorado Photo: AP Photo/Colorado State Forest Service, Jen Chase

  28. Photo: AP Photo/Tom Hood

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