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An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Features on Dengue Fever and its Vectors in Five Caribbean Countries (AIACC Pro

An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Features on Dengue Fever and its Vectors in Five Caribbean Countries (AIACC Project). By S C Rawlins PhD, Emeritus Scientist c/o Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, Trinidad. Introduction.

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An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Features on Dengue Fever and its Vectors in Five Caribbean Countries (AIACC Pro

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  1. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Features on Dengue Fever and its Vectors in Five Caribbean Countries (AIACC Project) By S C Rawlins PhD, Emeritus Scientist c/o Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, Trinidad

  2. Introduction • In the last two decades there has been an unprecedented increase in the occurrence and severity of dengue fever (DF) in Caribbean countries. • Any tool useful to predicting outbreaks and implementing enhanced prevention strategies – adaptation – would be most welcome. Cert

  3. Introduction contd.

  4. Caribbean Countries

  5. Introduction Contd. • Already, we have examined the impact of climate change features especially warming conditions on retrospective dengue fever data in the Caribbean region. • We have shown some association in the increased occurrence of DF and warming periods in some Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC) Member Countries (CMCs)

  6. Caribbean countries

  7. Prospective Studies, 2002-2004 • . In this present study we are examining prospectively the occurrence of DF and population features of the vector with varying climate features such as temperature and precipitation. • Here, we are examining the patterns of reported dengue fever cases in the Caribbean region – mainly CMCs with a population of just over 6 - 7 millions – to demonstrate any climate-related patterns of disease presentation over 2002 - 2004

  8. Design and Methods • Data on reported monthly dengue fever (DF) cases, vector – Aedes aegypti – indices, and climatic indicators were collected prospectively for a 12 month period beginning early 2003 in 5 Caribbean countries • Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), Barbados, St Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) and St Kitts/Nevis (SKN). • Data were analyzed by ANOVA for evidence of climate impact on DF cases and vector indices.

  9. St Vincent Results • SVG data showed minor fluctuations of vector breteau (BIs) and house indices (HIs) with precipitation • Dryer periods coincided with low vector HIs of 9-22%. In wet periods, both indices were higher – HIs (17-72%) and BIs (31-55). • Temperature varied slightly (23-32˚C) throughout the year.

  10. St Kitts/Nevis Results • SKN vector data showed a bimodal pattern with peaks of HIs and BIs in May-June and October-December, the latter associated with significant precipitation. • Mean monthly temperatures only varied between 26 -29˚C (Fig. 4).

  11. Trinidad and Tobago • T&T data for 2002 and 2003 showed distinct dry and wet seasonal patterns • In 2002 dry periods (January-May), there were low BIs (21– 29), and mean monthly DF cases of 290.4. • Increases in BIs (32-44), (P=0.000) and mean monthly DF cases (695/month) coincided with the wetter period (June – December). • Temperature varied slightly 22-25˚C (min) to 31 -33˚C (max) for the period.

  12. Conclusions 1 • Patterns from SKN, SVG and T&T data discerned a correlation of seasonal effect on BIs and in T&T on DF transmission • . Temperature variations did not seem to be significant, but may have affected the onset of precipitation and in turn, vector production, an increase in indices and DF cases

  13. Conclusions 2 • The data confirm the usefulness of recognizing the wet season as a risk factor for DF transmission in the region • Utilising this knowledge for preparation of early warning systems for DF prevention will be vital

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