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the foreign policy decision making process in the united states

Characteristics of Foreign Policy Decision Making in the U. S.. Presidents are leaders, not autocrats Decisions are stressfulTime pressureUncertaintyHigh StakesSmall is beautiful (and dangerous) in group policy making. Theories of Leadership and Decision Making. Why so few good theories of leader personality?Theoretical confusionDifficulty of applied research Do leaders fit the times?David McClelland, David WinterMotive profile and zeitgeistWho makes good decisions?Integrative Com9445

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the foreign policy decision making process in the united states

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    1. The Foreign Policy DecisionMaking Process in the United States Paul A. Kowert Associate Professor, Florida International University International Relations Graduate Program Director FLACSO-FIU Joint Seminar 25-29 January, 2010, Hotel Balmoral, San José, Costa Rica

    3. Theories of Leadershipand Decision Making Why so few good theories of leader personality? Theoretical confusion Difficulty of applied research Do leaders fit the times? David McClelland, David Winter Motive profile and zeitgeist Who makes good decisions? Integrative Complexity (Tetlock, Suedfeld) Big Five: neuroticism, extraversion, openness, conscientiousness, agreeableness

    4. Theories of Perceptionand Decision Making We all make mistakes: cognitive biases and judgmental errors Cognitive consistency Attribution error Judgmental heuristics: incrementalism, salience, simplicity Analogical reasoning We especially make mistakes under stress: motivated errors (Irving Janis & Leon Mann) Defensive Avoidance Hypervigilance

    5. Theories of Group Dynamicsand Decision Making There is strength (and bias) in numbers Risky shift Groupthink Deadlock Leaders need different kinds of advisory groups Open leaders need open groups (groupthink is biggest danger) Closed leaders need managed groups (deadlock is biggest danger)

    6. Conclusions aboutForeign Policy Decision Making in the US Leaders matter Nixon in the Cuban Missile Crisis? Gore after 9/11? Policy is the result of error as well as intent China embassy bombing In general, why did Clinton delay the NATO bombing campaign against Serbia during the Kosovo War Leaders can learn, but not always Kennedy from Bay of Pigs to Cuban Missile Crisis

    7. A Short Bibliography G. John Ikenberry, American Foreign Policy: Theoretical Essays (New York: Longman, multiple editions). Alexander George, Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1980). Irving Janis, Groupthink (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1982).

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