Scenarios for the Future of Public Broadcasting

1. Scenarios for the Future of Public Broadcasting What Does Public Service Mean in the Multi-Choice Digital Age? Channeling Public Interest Media:Reporting on the Public Broadcast System

2. Strategic investment scenarios • Sustaining investments • Sustain the legacy business • Best practices improvements • Collaborations to lower costs and gain scale

3. Strategic investment scenarios • Repositioning investments • Often disruptive innovations (à la Clayton Christensen) • Reposition in new directions consistent with original mission

4. Über trends in electronic media • Digitization • Personalization • Democratization

5. Über trends: digitization • Content meets mathematics • Noiseless generations for production & distribution • Metadata – data about data • Find, manipulate and distribute content with great granularity and flexibility • Repurpose content • Extend the life and value of media assets • Search

6. Über trends: personalization • Content meets self-organization • Tagging (‘folksonomies’) • XML syndication (RSS, Atom) • Attention (metadata that tracks to what people are paying attention)

7. Example: Tagging at flickr Tags / norway Sample photos from the RSS feed of the tag ‘norway’ from flickr.com

8. Example: RSS • Really Simple Syndication (better: Really Simple Subscriptions) • It’s very easy to implement. • It aggregates in one place what’s new in web content to which you subscribe. • Combined with personalization, it will provide a powerful distribution platform for pubcasters (or, a powerful competitor). • Open a Bloglines.com account and try it.

9. Über Trends: democratization • Content freed from gatekeepers • Inexpensive but powerful production tools • Low barriers to effective distribution • Search and referral substitutes for marketing

10. Example: Podcasting • Works with any portable media players, PCs, Macs, and most news aggregators. • Means adding an enclosure to an RSS 2.0 item (can be a link to any file: MP3, WMV, etc.). • Specialized aggregators can automatically sync your files with the player. • Implications for how we do journalism and production.

11. The “long tail” meme • From Wired Editor in Chief Chris Anderson • “The future of entertainment is in the millions of niche markets at the shallow end of the bitstream.” • Real time is hits oriented. For non-real time long-tail distribution, success can come with much smaller numbers.

12. The “long tail” meme • Amazon, iTunes, Netflix, et al. have much larger inventories than corre-sponding brick-and-mortar stores. • The average record store has 40,000 tracks, but Rhapsody has 735,000. • “The average Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 titles...[, but] more than half of Amazon’s book sales come from outside its top 130,000 titles.

13. The “long tail” meme

14. Broadcasters must adapt to • A multi-platform future • A multi-choice future

15. A multi-platform future • We’re evolving from distribution over one platform to distribution over multiple platforms: • Over-the-air transmitters • Internet and broadband • Cable and satellite • Physical media • Mobile and portable devices From Dave MacCarn, WGBH

16. A multi-choice future • The number of “channels” through which users will be able to access our content will continue to grow. • Increasingly, users want control over when and where they use our content. • Increasingly, users want choice and personalization. • Successful public broadcasters are morphing into digital libraries. From Dave MacCarn, WGBH

17. The new media divide • People are taking control over their media usage. • “My time” (non-real time) is the fastest growing segment of media usage. • “I want what I want, when I want it, the way I want it.” • So it’s less and less audio vs. video or print vs. electronic, it’s ... • Real-time vs. “my time.”

18. Who does “my time” serve? • People who have already left linear programming for other reasons: • Career • Chores • Community • Family • People who can’t get enough of what they like on your stations.

19. CPB TV primetime study • PTV viewing was small in two segments compatible with PTV: • “Innovative & Inclined” • “Distracted & Unavailable” • Together, they are 26% of viewers: • Limited free time • Frequent users of technology • Medium-to-high users of public radio

20. CPB TV primetime study

21. Real-time economics • For real-time broadcasting, distribution costs scale perfectly ($ for 1 = $ for 1,000,000), but time for content is dear. • Rewards AQH listening/viewing. • Programmers are tacticians. • Programming strategy is finding hits and competing with other hit-programmers.

22. “My time” economics • For “my time” distribution, costs scale incrementally with use, but time for content is limited only by storage. • Requires a business model to cover incremental costs. • Rewards cumulative access over time. • Programmers are curators. • Make the “tail” lo-o-o-ong. • Programming strategy is to make content personalized and accessible.

23. Public Service Publisher • A “my time,” “long tail” repositioning initiative • Public broadcasting stations and independent producers • Partnering with Open Media Network for content distribution component • To include citizen-supplied media • Broadcasters can serve as enablers for community public service content

24. Public Service Publisher • Multi-platform content delivery from a common user interface • Internet • Free • Subscription • Pay per use • Cable VOD • DTV broadcast data caching • Physical media (DVD, CD) • Station-supplied • Amazon, Netflix, et al.

25. Public Service Publisher • Users can access via portal or station affiliated pages • B2B services • Station program guides • Fair use recording

26. New revenue sources • Member benefits (more content, convenient times) • New audience revenue (relationship building, underwriting) • User compensation for access to niche, premium or hard-to-find programming

27. Assets in permanent distribution build record of community value, important for tax-based, foundation and philanthropic funding B2B revenues (rights to distribute, marketing content for derivative works) Distribution services (datacasting, load balancing, “my time” traffic) New revenue sources

28. “Pull” urgencies • Opportunities: • “My time” use growing rapidly. • PBCore, broadband, off-the-shelf core technologies are in place. • Long-tail businesses are succeeding. • Pubcasters and partners have great and deep content assets. • There is substantial interest in use of “my time” electronic media by other public service organizations.

29. “Push” urgencies • Threats: • Competition for pubcasters is coming from the for-profit sector. • It’s no longer a one-platform world. If we cling to one platform, we risk our mission. • XML-based syndication to portable devices is growing and presents a real “bypass” to linear programmers. • Barriers to entry are low. If we don’t do it, someone else will.

30. Contact information Dennis L. Haarsager, Associate VP & GMEducational Telecommunications & TechnologyPO Box 642530Washington State UniversityPullman, WA 99164-22530Contact info: www.haarsager.org/contactWeblog: www.technology360.comResources: www.technology360.org