Working Draft by Dunn September 2013

1. Aerospace Industry is Critical to the Economy of the United States:Role and Importance of Experimental Fluid Dynamics (Ground Test) Capabilities Working Draft by Dunn September 2013

2. Purpose of his Document • Begin the logic layout for defining the role and importance of Experimental Fluid Dynamics (Ground Testing) to the National aeronautics/aerospace and defense industries and, ultimately, to the National economy. • Define the attributes/terms to be used for a document review template that will be used to collect and review published information as part of the working group meta-analysis.

3. Aero Industry Markets [Note: Where to include RDT&E capability investment and sustainment? Embedded or separate?] Annual Market* ($B) USA World SUBSONIC TRANSONIC SUPERSONIC HYPERSONIC XXX.X XXX.X 0 0.7 1.2 (Mach Number) 18+ 5 X.X XX.X RESEARCH (Academia, Industry, Government) X.X X.X ROTORCRAFT XX.X XX.X FIXED WING Commercial Transports, Some Bombers XX.X XX.X FIGHTERS, ISR, HS BOMBERS X.X XX.X GEN. AVIATION X.X XX.X UAVs X.X XX.X MISSILES X.X XX.X SPACE LAUNCH TRANSPORATION, SUBORBITAL TRANSPORTATION ENTRY, DESCENT, LANDING FROM SPACE X.X X.X * Data Source: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

4. Aero Industry Economic Engine New Product Development US Economy World Economy Research • Spin-offs (non-aero) • Technologies • New Products • Forces • National defense and force projection needs • US and international competition • Speed to market • Minimalist budget thinking • Government vs. industry roles • Low initial cost vs. life cycle best value • Environment • Market (customer) needs • Safety requirements and expectations • Stovepiped national capabilities • Uncertain space strategy • Sluggish US economy • Gov’t regulation generally increasing • Uncertain gov’t economic policies • Tax law • CR’s, 5 years and counting • Affordable Care Act changes • Sequestration • “Strategic” is 2 years • Interest rate (Fed Res policies) • Free Trade Agreements pending • Dodd-Frank changes

5. Research Engine System Integration Research Element Investments required to establish research capabilities • Experimental Fluid Dynamics • Basic services infrastructure • Test capability infrastructure • Test techniques/capabilities • Measurement technologies • People trained & certified • Calibration and validation Experimental Ground Test/ Laboratories Experimental Ground Test/ Laboratories Computational Methods Computational Methods • Code Development • Software tools • Adaptation to purpose • Code validation • Skilled people • Compute infrastructure Prior Research Prior Research Prior Products Prior Products Science & Technology (S&T) Capabilities Research Element: Can be aero-based or measurement/ capability/ technique – using EFD, CFD, lab or (likely) some combination. Includes researcher subject matter expertise.

6. Product Development Life Cycle Market Need Problem: Resulting from inadequate earlier risk management (hazard identification criticality, mitigation, and system integration) Problem Cycle  PRODUCT IDEA! Develop Fix Problem Multiple Research Elements, Systems Research, and Prior Product Knowledge Base Configure Form of Product Integrated Req’mts and Basic Concept New Product Exploration [Concept Dev’mt and Selection Product Devel’mt Flight Test Initial Production Integrated Model/ Code Devel’mt Go/No-go Decision Utilize EFD/CFD for Development, Test & Evaluation Risk Management and Business Case • Technical • Integrated performance • Market need and forces (includes competition) • Includes economic climate • Regulatory/government environment • Financial • Capitalization • Cost model, product life cycle • Revenue model, life cycle

7. Role of EFD in the RDT&E Process Crucial to gain understanding of aero physics behavior at each step (fluids, structure/materials, propulsion and propulsion integration, product system integration, and environmental interactions) : • Research • Configuration/form of product • Concept development, refinement, and selection • Product development • Flight test • Initial production • Product modifications Specific EFD contribution to each step is demonstrable  Part of working group effort

8. Risk of Losing Key National EFD Capabilities Is Increasing • Factors driving risk • Aging and inefficient physical infrastructure • Workforce demographics • Maintenance stretched across old and repurposed facilities • New/updated capability and productivity investments • Organizational stovepiping by capability owners • Funding models/methods variability/inconsistency • Cyclical and declining workloads • Tightening sustainment budgets • Understanding (lack) of role of GT in the aero RDT&E process • Short term outlooks for political cycles and business performance • Demonstrated responses to these risks • Reduced sustainment and investment (degrades capabilities) • Reduced availability (block, sequential, spaced, limited operations) • Reduced or eliminated capabilities and/or capacities • Facility/capability stand down or mothball • Facility/capability abandonment/closure

9. Economics of Ground TestingA Possible Scenario Equation: Capability Development and Sustainment Costs versus Direct and Indirect Benefit to the US and the World • Assume • Market economy  complete product turnover over next 30 years • Average 2% annual growth across all market segments • Baseline is FY2012 • Existing GT capabilities are sunk cost • Costs • Develop and sustain capabilities • Invest in new technologies and applications (capabilities and efficiencies) • Benefits • GT contribution to research  feeds new product development • GT contribution to new product risk management [show relative to contribution at each step of the RDT&E process] • Estimate range and dollar value of impacts  Extreme case: All EFD facilities are closed/mothballed by 2020  Likely case: EFD workload will continue to decline and capabilities and capacities will decline by a like amount

10. Working Group Literature ReviewInitial Draft of Topic Areas • Research needs: • Direct contribution (testing); ability to “try stuff” • Support contribution (code calibration and validation) • Product development needs • Direct and supportive contributions to each stage of development • Risk management role for each stage • Market differences? • Workload projections by market, US and world • By speed range, mission (within market), new products • Evolving roles and use of EFD and CFD • Detections of product problems, early and for remediation • Aero market spin-offs/contributions to other markets • Economic impacts, specific products, quality of life • Facility/capability risk factors: status, how being addressed, impacts • Environment factors and market forces over next years • EFD as part of the product business case • Capability investment projections