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, experience at the Israeli Meteorological Service

, experience at the Israeli Meteorological Service. Yoav Levi, Head R&D. 77 IMS personnel. 2012 IMS News. New data policy - the IMS stopped selling products (data and forecasts), as all IMS budget is covered by the government.

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, experience at the Israeli Meteorological Service

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  1. , experience at the Israeli Meteorological Service Yoav Levi, Head R&D

  2. 77 IMS personnel

  3. 2012 IMS News • New data policy - the IMS stopped selling products (data and forecasts), as all IMS budget is covered by the government. • Less employees for public services and more for research. R&D from 5 to 8 employees. • A new HPC.

  4. SGI HPC with 1024 cores 32 nodes of 2 AMD 16 core Opteron6276 processors

  5. HPC performance

  6. IMS Research & Development

  7. NWP at IMS • IMS runs WRF, HRM and testing COSMO. • IMS has decided to join COSMO and use it operationally for forecasting duties and upgrade our NWP skills. • 2 young FTE’s and a consultation from Dr. Shimon Krichak from the Tel-Aviv Uni. (50%).

  8. 2012 Research • MSG - Land Surface Temperature (LST) and IR to evaluate frost and cloud fraction in partial filed pixels (replace human observations). • Could it be relevant for Soil and Surface working group (WG3b), conditional verification (WG5)?

  9. Where vegetation is enhanced evapo-transpiration reduces temperatureCOSMO_LST > MSG_LST

  10. After Dry Season Tel Aviv 70 km Jerusalem

  11. At springwith~2 octas

  12. INCA-Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis. • NWP interpolated and adjusted to 1 Km grid together with 85 AWS observation. • Could it be relevant for Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation (KENDA), grid verification(WG5)?

  13. Wind energy atlas 2013 - COSMO 2.8 km as input to a micro-scale model

  14. Forecast verification comparing to Bet Dagan Radiosond -IT DA?

  15. 60 hour average RMSE for T2m Tel Aviv 20km 16km 7km 7km 12km 14km

  16. : T2m : COSMO-IT : 12Z+18h : Bet Dagan near Tel Aviv Model (oC) Observations (oC) Frequency of events (%) התפלגות השגיאות : RMSE2 = STD2 + MBE2 Temperature error (oC)

  17. RMSE for 12Z runsCOSMO-ITBet Dagan RMSE (oC) Forecast range (hr) Large RMSE at 06Z

  18. Last 7 Days bias correction Frequency of events (%) No correction 7 days bias correction Temperature error (oC) RMSE (oC) Decrees RMSE Forecast range (hr)

  19. Bet Dagan – near Tel aviv כל המודלים RMSE W/O correction 6Z RMSE(oC) ECMWF 18Z UKMO CO-IT CO-IL 12Z Forecast range (hr) 213/263 events

  20. Bet Dagan – near Tel aviv כל המודלים RMSE after bias correction RMSE(oC) ECMWF UKMO CO-IT CO-IL Forecast range (hr)

  21. Summery for Temperature verification

  22. COSMO-IL, nocturnal RH 10% underestimation

  23. COSMO underestimates humidity!& misses fog AWS obs.

  24. We live in a dry environment but COSMO makes it worse! CO-IT – icbc from ECMWF CO-IL – icbc from GME CO CO CO obs obs obs obs obs CO CO

  25. Summary, IMS experience with • Good Temperature and wind forecasts. • Underestimation of Relative Humidity and fog appearance. • Strong underestimation of precipitation. • Hopefully we will mange together to improve COSMO skills in the future.

  26. Israeli Meteorological Service Thanks

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