New Product Forecasting Tips and Tools

1. New Product ForecastingTips and Tools Kenneth B. Kahn, Ph.D. Professor & Avrum and Joyce Gray Director Burton D. Morgan Center for Entrepreneurship Purdue University 1201 West State Street West Lafayette, Indiana 47907-2057 765-496-3223; FAX 765-494-9870 kbkahn@purdue.edu Ó 2008 Kenneth B. Kahn Ph.D.

2. Experience- and Research-Based Prescriptions • There is no silver bullet when it comes to new product forecasting. • New product forecasting success results from data, experience, cross-functional communication, business knowledge, and being connected to the customer. • Participation of analytical business functions like demand planning correlate to a more accurate, satisfying forecast. • New product forecasting requires reconciliation of multiple techniques based on judgment and analytical skills. However, the greater the number of techniques used does not simply increase new product forecast accuracy nor satisfaction. • New product forecasting is an assumptions management process. • Think in terms of ranges, not specific numbers.

3. Program Agenda 9:00 - 10:20a: New Product Forecasting Issues and Considerations 10:20 - 10:40a: Break 10:40a - 12:00p: Judgmental New Product Forecasting Techniques (Part I) 12:00 - 1:00p: Lunch 1:00 - 2:20p: Judgmental New Product Forecasting Techniques (Part II) 2:20 - 2:40p: Break 2:40 - 4:00p: Quantitative New Product Forecasting Techniques 4:00 - 4:15p: Break 4:15 - 5:00p: New Product Forecasting Best Practices and Next Steps