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WHEN THE LIGHTS GO OUT

WHEN THE LIGHTS GO OUT. MAXWELL IRVINE GUILDFORD OCTOBER 2005. POWER TO THE PEOPLE: NUMBERS COUNT. POWER TO THE PEOPLE: NUMBERS COUNT. Energy is quite simply the single most important commodity for our existence and the survival of our society and our civilization.

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WHEN THE LIGHTS GO OUT

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  1. WHEN THE LIGHTS GO OUT MAXWELL IRVINE GUILDFORD OCTOBER 2005

  2. POWER TO THE PEOPLE: NUMBERS COUNT

  3. POWER TO THE PEOPLE: NUMBERS COUNT • Energy is quite simply the single most important commodity for our existence and the survival of our society and our civilization. • Ensuring an adequate, safe, sustainable and secure supply should be our highest national priority. It is easy to forget this in times of abundance.

  4. POWER TO THE PEOPLE: NUMBERS COUNT • ‘Power to the people’ is not a call for political revolution but it is a call for urgent political action. • No amount of political wishful thinking will resolve the issues. This is a quantitative as well as qualitative set of issues and ‘numbers count’

  5. CAVEAT • These are my personal views. My Committee’s Report is due in June 2006. • I am on a steep learning curve and am open to conversion. • Because of time, I will concentrate on the Global picture as a back drop to the discussion session.

  6. CURRENT UK POLICY • Current policy is enshrined in the 2003 White Paper ‘Our Energy Future: creating a low carbon economy’. • No new nuclear stations in the forseeable future. • Heavy dependence on ‘renewables’. • Replacement of domestic fossil fuels by imported gas.

  7. OUR ENERGY FUTURE: . “This is not a White Paper; it is a Green Paper with a broad yellow stripe” (House of Commons Select Committee). • “ We have met no one outside Government who believes these figures” (House of Lords Select Committee) • “ …that is why it is a political aspiration and not a policy target” (Energy adviser DTI)

  8. ENERGY DEMAND DRIVERS • People use energy – more people require more energy. • The more people do, the more energy they require. Economic development feeds on energy. • The more severe the climate the greater the need for energy.

  9. POPULATION GROWTH

  10. POPULATION GROWTH • 1950-2000 the population grew from 2.4 billion to over 6 billion. • 2000 – 2020 the UN is projecting a growth to 7.5 billion. • By 2050 the UN predicts a global population of 9 billion (260 people for every square mile of dry land.

  11. POPULATION GROWTH • Europe and North America have stable populations. They produce and consume half the World’s energy. • The developing World has a rapidly expanding population and economic growth. • China and India (1/3 of global population) are experiencing double digit economic growth.

  12. ENERGY GROWTH • 1950 – 2000 energy demand quadrupled. • 2000 – 2050 it is expected to double

  13. TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY 2002 NUCLEAR 6.8% COAL 24.8% HYDRO 2.2% BIOMASS 10.9% OIL 34.9% GAS 21.2%

  14. TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY % BY REGION 2002

  15. TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY OECD COUNTRIES 2002

  16. TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY • Fossil fuels account for 80.9% of all global energy supply. 83.1% in OECD. • Biomass ( all non fossilised hydrocarbons, including waste) accounts for 10.9% globally but only 3.3% in OECD • Others (wind, waves, tides, solar, geothermal etc) account for <0.5%

  17. E ELECTRICITY GENERATION % BY PRIMARY FUEL 2002

  18. GLOBAL % 2002

  19. % 2002

  20. ENERGY CONSUMPTION • Two thirds of all electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels (more than a third by coal) • Direct burning of fossil fuels accounts for two thirds of all final energy consumption • In the OECD more than three quarters of final energy consumption comes as fossil fuels (mostly oil) • Consumption matches supply

  21. SUSTAINABILITY • Two issues – availability and impact of use

  22. YEARS TO EXHAUSTION OF PROVEN GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES AT CURRENT CONSUMPTION AND WITH 1% AND 2% GROWTH RATES

  23. FOSSIL FUEL EXHAUSTION • Current proven reserves of all fossil fuels will be exhausted in just over 50 years if current trends continue. • New reserves will be found, new technologies will lead to greater depletion efficiency and as costs rise uneconomic fields will become viable. • However, oil and gas finds have lagged behind field exhaustion for nearly twenty years. • Costs are now rising steeply (>100%pa)

  24. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT • Concerns about coal go back to the Industrial Revolution. • Particulate omission (smoke banned 1960s) • Acid rain (sulphur emissions controlled 1970s) • Emission controls cost money – coal consumption peaked in1980s

  25. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT • Now the concern is global warming (carbon gasses emitted by all hydrocarbon burning) • The Kyoto agreement requires all signatories to reduce carbon emissions in stages until 2050 (UK by 60%)

  26. PER CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS IN TONNES 4.37 1.98 10.96 2.57 0.89 7.78 6.33 1.14

  27. PROBLEM • Currently 80% of all energy comes from fossil fuels. • Global energy demand is expected to double by 2050. • Environmental and availability issues would suggest that fossil fuel consumption should halve by 2050 • If the above is accepted then fossil fuels will only contribute 20% of energy by 2050.

  28. OPTIONS • Savings and efficiency 20% • Fossil fuels 20% • Hydroelectricity < 5% • Biomass <10% • Alternatives < 10% • New technologies: No fusion before 2050; hydrogen net energy consumer • Nuclear: under current global policies <10%

  29. PROBLEM • At the most optimistic, there is a 25% energy gap by 2050.

  30. PROBLEM • RISING FOSSIL FUEL PRICES COULD DESTABILISE WORLD ECONOMIES – WORLD RECESSION SAVES FUEL • THE CHINESE HAVE REPLACED THE USA AS THE FINANCIAL DRIVERS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY • INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION FOR FOSSIL FUELS COULD BREED POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND TERRORISM • FOSSIL FUELS IN POLITICALLY UNSTABLE TERRITORIES (INVESTMENT?)

  31. PROBLEM UK • NORTH SEA GAS <15 YEARS (NORWAY)-DECLINING • NORTH SEA OIL<10 YEARS-DECLINING • DOMESTIC COAL UNECONOMIC • NO MORE HYDROELECTRICITY • WIND AND MARINE POWER < 50% OF ELECTRICITY (<10% OF ENERGY) BY 2050 • NUCLEAR TO BE PHASED OUT (CURRENTLY 25% OF ELECTRICITY) BY 2030

  32. PROBLEM UK • THE GRID!!! • KYOTO???????

  33. UK NUCLEAR • CORWM • DESPERATE SHORTAGE OF TECHNICAL CAPACITY • INTERNATIONAL MARKET FOR ENERGY PLANTS WILL BE EXTREMELY COMPETITIVE (>160 NUCLEAR PLANTS ON ORDER) • NON CARBON PRODUCING ELECTRICITY GENERATION ON A VAST SCALE THE ONLY SOLUTION (HYDROGEN)

  34. CONCLUSIONS • Investment decisions are needed in the next 2-3 years (Number 10 has promised a nuclear decision in this session of Parliament) • The biggest obstacle to efficient energy use is conflicting Government bureaucracies • To implement an energy strategy we require an non departmental Energy Agency • Otherwise…..

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