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The CENSUS and HEALTH – what’s in the future (Beyond 2011)

The CENSUS and HEALTH – what’s in the future (Beyond 2011). The Census and Health. A census is an official periodic count of a population including information like age, sex, occupation, …. The first census in England and Wales was carried out in 1801, and then after every ten years.

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The CENSUS and HEALTH – what’s in the future (Beyond 2011)

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  1. The CENSUS and HEALTH – what’s in the future (Beyond 2011)

  2. The Census and Health • A census is an official periodic count of a population including information like age, sex, occupation, … • The first census in England and Wales was carried out in 1801, and then after every ten years. • The 2011 census was the 21st and took place on 27 March 2011. • Captures: Population statistics, social characteristics, housing • Unique aspects: small areas and small populations; Multivariate combinations

  3. The Census and Health • Wide range of uses: • Service Planning • Resource allocation • Policy development, monitoring and review • Social research • EU regulations and duty to report to Parliament

  4. 2011 Census Form

  5. 2011 Census questionnaire content (individuals) New topics highlighted in italicsTopic dropped: number of employees at workplace

  6. 2011 Census questionnaire content (households)

  7. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 The Census and Health Between censuses mid-year estimates by age and sex are worked out each year by: • ageing the population of the previous year • adding births and people moving in • subtracting deaths and people moving out

  8. The Census and Health Population projections estimate the size of the future population by age They are based on assumptions about births and fertility, deaths, and migration. Population of Wales 2010 and 2035,by five year age band and gender (000s) Population projections by broad age group, Wales, (indexed) Source: 2010-based population projections, ONS

  9. The Census and Health – 2011 results • Population: The usually resident population of Wales was 3.1 million in 2011, a five per cent increase since 2001. Nearly one in five (18 per cent, 563,000) of residents were aged 65 or over. • Limiting long term health problem: As was the case in 2001, in 2011 Wales had a higher percentage of residents with a long term health problem or disability, just under a quarter (23 per cent, 696,000), higher than any English region. (12% ‘limited a lot’, 11% ‘limited a little’) • General Health: Whilst over three quarters of Welsh residents (77.8 per cent) described their general health as ‘very good’ or ‘good’, 7.6 per cent (234,000) described their health as ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’ – a higher percentage than in any English region • General Health: Of all the local authorities in England and Wales, 6 out of the 10 with the highest percentage of residents reporting ‘very bad’ health were in Wales (Merthyr Tydfil, Blaenau Gwent, Neath Port Talbot, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Caerphilly and Bridgend). • General Health: Of the LAs in Wales, Gwynedd, Flintshire and Monmouthshire had the lowest percentage of population reporting ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’ health • Caregivers: More people (12 per cent, 370,000) in Wales were caregivers than in any English region. Wales had higher percentages of people providing care for 20 to 49 hours, and 50 or more hours, than any England region; two per cent (54,000) and three per cent (104,000) respectively.

  10. The Census and Health bad or very bad health

  11. The Census - Development The first census was on 10 March 1801 The data was processed by an army of clerks using pens and paper. In 1911 punched cards were introduced along with mechanical sorting and counting machines. Computers were first used in the 1961 Census 2011 first opportunity to complete online

  12. The Census: Beyond 2011 Why consider change? Rapidly changing society Evolving user requirements New opportunities – data sharing Traditional census – costly and infrequent?? UK Statistics Authority to Minister for Cabinet Office “As a Board we have been concerned about the increasing costs and difficulties of traditional Census-taking. We have therefore already instructed the ONS to work urgently on the alternatives, with the intention that the 2011 Census will be the last of its kind.” ONS Beyond 2011 Programme Public recommendation is expected in 2014

  13. objective questions subjective questions The Census: Beyond 2011 population data attribute data e.g. Health National identity e.g. Who lives in house Age Number of rooms

  14. Beyond 2011 : Initial Statistical options Full Census (long form to everyone) Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period) e.g France Census options Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample) e.g.Canada Short Form + Annual Survey (US model) Aggregate analysis Administrative data options Partiallinkage e.g. 1% of postcodes 100% linkage Survey option(s) Address register + Survey

  15. HESA DVLA SC ER NHS DWP CIS Beyond 2011: potential administrative data sources resident population coverage of main administrative sources

  16. 2011 Patient Register population counts compared with 2011 Census population estimates

  17. 2011 DWP CIS population counts compared with 2011 Census population estimates

  18. Statistical benefit profile Census Alternativemethod Benefit 2011 2021 2031 2041 loss loss gain gain

  19. Cost profile (real terms) Census Cost ???Alternative method 2011 2021 2031 2041

  20. Beyond 2011: Progress • Results of initial public consultation published • Results of aggregate data models emerging • Work on linked admin data models beginning • Research beginning to be published and research plans outlined • Revisiting the options • Real focus on understanding the business case for small area attribute information • WG statisticians continue to represent Welsh interests at all levels of meetings – stakeholder engagement critical

  21. “What gives ONS data credibility over other sources is its accuracy and reliability, therefore this should not be sacrificed” City of Bradford MDC 2012 consultation: Accuracy, Frequency or Geography? “What gives ONS data credibility over other sources is its accuracy and reliability, therefore this should not be sacrificed” City of Bradford MDC

  22. Main messages from consultation Many users welcome the opportunity – but many like the census The expected range of views and priorities - not going to be able to please everybody Strong genealogical interest Views vary by sector but most prefer small area geography and accuracy to high frequency - Census as a benchmark for other sources

  23. Wales: some responses to the consultation “It is most important that data for Wales remain strictly comparable to English data” North Wales Regional Equalities Network “Some Welsh statistics often appear to be provided as one and it is hard to break down the story….It would be helpful to have stats that relate to north, mid and south Wales – and by borough” Local Authority, anonymous “Welsh language data is of particular interest….The Census can be a useful resource for mapping use of the Welsh language in different parts of Wales…” Welsh Language Board

  24. Aggregate Models: Data Sources Used Patient Register (April 2011 extract) Contains records of all patients registered with an NHS GP in England and Wales Contains around 58 million records (E&W) Data includes NHS number, gender, date of birth, address and postcode Census Coverage Survey (CCS) Independent survey carried out in 1% of postcodes soon after the Census People and households in the CCS are matched to those in the Census Allows number and characteristics of people missed by the Census to be estimated

  25. A1: PR/Coverage Survey Ratio Results Conclusion: these aggregate models will not be able to produce population estimates of sufficient quality for the whole country and this option is now excluded from the shortlist

  26. Beyond 2011: A new way forward ... define quality standards (of outputs) for population estimates population attributes • Assess and shortlist options that can meet them .... (then chose from them in terms of business case & cost/benefit). Instead of defining the options, then trying to assess quality...

  27. Quality standards (draft) Population estimates (annually at ...) P1. Maximum quality of Census P2. Current variable (peak and trough) quality P3. Current average quality P4. Minimum quality in current system, Population attributes (of acceptable quality at ...) A1. MSOA data every 10 years LA data every 10 years A2. LA data annually MSOA data rolling 3 years LSOA data rolling 5 years A3. OA data every 10 years (& LSOAs MSOAs LAs ) (At least !!)

  28. Estimating the POPULATION Characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long form 100% every 10 years Short form 100% every 10 years Full Census Short form - rolling ≈ 4%-10% every year Long form - rolling ≈ 4%-10% every year (???) Rolling Census (France) Long form ≈ 10%+ every 10 years Short form 100% every 10 years Short form, Long form (Canada) Long form - rolling ≈ 4%-10% every year (???) Short form 100% every 10 years Short form + Annual survey (USA) Admin data: Aggregate every year Large Survey rolling or every 10 years Aggregate Admin data: Part Linkage every year Large Survey rolling or every 10 years Partial linkage Admin data: Full Linkage every year Full linkage Large Survey rolling or every 10 years Large Survey ≈ 4%-10% every year (???) Address register + Survey

  29. Estimating the POPULATION Characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long form 100% every 10 years Short form 100% every 10 years Full Census Short form - rolling ≈ 4%-10% every year Long form - rolling ≈ 4%-10% every year (???) Rolling Census (France) Long form ≈ 10%+ every 10 years Short form 100% every 10 years Short form, Long form (Canada) Long form - rolling ≈ 4%-10% every year (???) Short form 100% every 10 years Short form + Annual survey (USA) Admin data: Aggregate every year Long 40% every 10y Long 10% every 10y Long ≈ 4%+ rolling Aggregate OR OR Admin data: Part Linkage every year Long 40% every 10y Long 10% every 10y Long ≈ 4%+ rolling Partial linkage OR OR Admin data: Full Linkage every year Long 40% every 10y Full linkage Long 10% every 10y Long ≈ 4%+ rolling OR OR Long form - rolling ≈ 4%-10% every year (???) Short form - rolling ≈ 4%-10% every year Address register + Survey

  30. estimates of POPULATION Admin Aggre-gate Admin Part Linkage Admin Full Linkage Short 100% every 10y Short rolling ≈ 4%-10% Long ≈ 10%+ every 10y characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long ≈ 4%+ rolling Long 40% every 10y Long 100% every 10y

  31. estimates of POPULATION Admin Aggre-gate Admin Part Linkage Admin Full Linkage Short 100% every 10y Short rolling ≈ 4%-10% Long ≈ 10%+ every 10y characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long ≈ 4%+ rolling Long 40% every 10y Long 100% every 10y  We could do a census We know it is capable of delivering at least one of our quality standards

  32. estimates of POPULATION Admin Aggre-gate Admin Part Linkage Admin Full Linkage Short 100% every 10y Short rolling ≈ 4%-10% Long ≈ 10%+ every 10y characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long ≈ 4%+ rolling Long 40% every 10y Long 100% every 10y x x x x  We wouldn’t do these as well A short form at the same time is the only sensible combination

  33. estimates of POPULATION Admin Aggre-gate Admin Part Linkage Admin Full Linkage Short 100% every 10y Short rolling ≈ 4%-10% Long ≈ 10%+ every 10y x characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long ≈ 4%+ rolling x Long 40% every 10y x Long 100% every 10y x x x x  Aggregate options don’t deliver accurate enough statistics They are interesting and but fail all of our quality targets (A1, A2, A3)

  34. estimates of POPULATION Admin Aggre-gate Admin Part Linkage Admin Full Linkage Short 100% every 10y Short rolling ≈ 4%-10% Long ≈ 10%+ every 10y x ? characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long ≈ 4%+ rolling x ? Long 40% every 10y ? x Long 100% every 10y x x x x  Our current view is partial linkage is not good enough either. This will be further tested but currently considered unlikely to be an option.

  35. estimates of POPULATION Admin Aggre-gate Admin Part Linkage Admin Full Linkage Short 100% every 10y Short rolling ≈ 4%-10% Long ≈ 10%+ every 10y x ? characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long ≈ 4%+ rolling x ?  Long 40% every 10y x ? Long 100% every 10y x x x x  We could do a rolling census Evidence is that this would deliver at least one of our quality targets

  36. estimates of POPULATION Admin Aggre-gate Admin Part Linkage Admin Full Linkage Short 100% every 10y Short rolling ≈ 4%-10% Long ≈ 10%+ every 10y x ? x characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long ≈ 4%+ rolling x ?  Long 40% every 10y x ? x Long 100% every 10y x x x x  But these options don’t make sense If we are running a rolling survey we might as well do the attribute survey at the same time You can carry on like this reviewing the options – I will skip to end

  37. Which option to choose ? We know that these can produce good estimates We have yet to prove that these can estimates of POPULATION Admin Aggre-gate Admin Part Linkage Admin Full Linkage Short 100% every 10y Short rolling ≈ 4%-10% Long ≈ 10%+ every 10y x ?  x  COST / BENEFIT of Small area attribute data characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long ≈ 4%+ rolling x ?    Long 40% every 10y x ?   x Long 100% every 10y x x x x  No unit level record linkage Require us to link unit level data If we can prove that admin data works & is publically acceptable – an admin data based solution looks very attractive The size and frequency of the attribute survey will depend on the quantified benefits of small area data

  38. Which option to choose ? estimates of POPULATION Admin Aggre-gate Admin Part Linkage Admin Full Linkage Short 100% every 10y Short rolling ≈ 4%-10% Long ≈ 10%+ every 10y x ?  x  characteristics - ATTRIBUTES Long ≈ 4%+ rolling x ?    Long 40% every 10y x ?   x Long 100% every 10y x x x x  Can we produce good population estimates from administrative data ? What is the public perception of data linkage vs. census methods ? How strong is the case for detailed population attribute data ?

  39. Beyond 2011 : Statistical options Full Census (long form to everyone)  Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period)  Census options Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample)   Short Form + Annual Survey (US model)  Aggregate analysis Administrative data options Partiallinkage e.g. 1% of postcodes ? ? 100% linkage    Survey option(s) Address register + Survey

  40. Beyond 2011: The Options 2 Full Census • Full census once every 10 years with a 1% coverage survey, • mid-year population estimates produced by cohort component method. Rolling Census • Annual census of 4% - 10% of the population (rolling round the country) • annual coverage survey. Short Form Census and 4% Annual Survey • Short form census once every 10 years with a1% coverage survey, • mid-year population estimatesproduced by cohort component method. • Annual attribute survey with a 4% annual sample.

  41. Beyond 2011: The Options 2 Annual Linkage and 10% 10-yearly Survey • Administrative data linkage • plus an annual 1% coverage survey with a one-off 10% coverage survey in 2021 to validate the method. • Ten yearly attribute survey with 10% sample. Annual Linkage and 4% Annual Survey • Administrative data linkage • plus an annual 1% coverage survey with a one-off 10% survey. • Annual attribute survey with 4% sample. Annual Linkage and 40% 10-yearly Survey • Administrative data linkage plus an annual • 1% coverage survey with a one-off 10% survey. • Ten yearly attribute survey with 40% sample.

  42. Beyond 2011: Why do we need a business case? • Beyond 2011 Programme will deliver a recommendation for future method to deliver population and socio-demographic statistics • This recommendation will need to be underpinned by robust business case to secure funding to implement that recommendation. • HM Treasury will want to see evidenced economic case • £ value of benefits > £ costs • Not straightforward for statistics • ONS’s core funding did not cover the 2011 Census • A business case had to be made for 2011

  43. Beyond 2011: Identifying the benefit of attribute data Relative costs for attribute questions • With a Census... • there’s high fixed costs (for example distributing, collecting and scanning/processing returns) • Marginal cost of extra questions is low, we moved from 3 to 4 pages per person for an extra £30m in 2011 • If we can produce population estimates without a Census... • The marginal cost of attribute questions becomes much higher

  44. Beyond 2011: What ONS need to do... We expect the case for producing population estimates to Local Authority level to be strong • use in economic statistics (denominator for GDP, unemployment), resource allocation But the case for producing attribute and lower level data will be harder: • need the help of users to make this case (if there is one) This is where we need your help

  45. Beyond 2011: Stakeholder engagement WG statisticians continue to represent Welsh interests at all levels of meetings – stakeholder engagement critical Beyond 2011 Internal advisory group Beyond 2011 External advisory group Welsh Statistical Liaison Committee (WSLC) Public sector event 21 March 2013 to develop the business case Topic-specific research groups Local Service Boards One to one meetings North/South Wales?

  46. Beyond 2011: What we need you to do • Help build the business case • What are the real needs for data on health, long term health problems, caring or other attributes? • At what geographical level, frequency and what degree of accuracy? • Are there quantifiable benefits? or quantifiable costs of not having the data available? • What would be the costs of capturing this data to a required quality if not available from a Census?

  47. More information, including many recent publications, from the ONS Beyond 2011 website http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/what-we-do/programmes---projects/beyond-2011/index.html Questions? Sue.leake@wales.gsi.gov.uk Stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk

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