WATER and CLIMATE CHANGE in the Aral Sea Basin

1. WATER and CLIMATE CHANGE in the Aral Sea Basin VICTOR DUKHOVNY GALINA STULINA The Scientific Information Centre of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (SIC ICWC) of Central Asia

2. ROLE of WATER RESOURCES in Central Asia. • Condition of life for 50 millions population (Precipitation from100 to 280 mm per year); • Source of water supply for communal needs, food preparation, freshing and hygiene; Wellbeing of60% of regions population depends from water; • 35 % of power production depends from hydroelectrostations; • 43% GNP are creating on the base of water; • 83% of agrarian production depends from irrigation.

3. Indicator Unit 1960 1980 1990 2000 Forecast (2020) Optimistic Pessimistic Population million 14,4 26,8 33,6 41,5 54,0 70,0 Irrigated area thousand hectares 4510 6920 7600 7890 9330 9300 Irrigated area ha/capita 0,32 0,26 0,23 0,19 0,17 0,12 Total water withdrawal km3/year 60,61 120,69 116,27 103,8 104,5 117,0 Including for irrigation km3/year 56,15 106,79 106,4 93,6 86,8 96,7 Specific withdrawal per 1 hectare m3/ha 12450 15430 14000 11860 9300 10400 Specific withdrawal per capita m3/capita 4270 4500 3460 2501 1935 1670 GNP bln.USD 16,1 48,1 74,0 54,0 109 77,0 The Basic Indicators of Water and Land Resources Development in the Aral Sea Basin

4. Environmental instability risks 1. Aral Sea coastal zone (Prearalie) desertification: formation of new Aralkum desert 2. Irrigation zone decreased land productivity:salinization, water-logging, irrigation erosion 3. Mountains, foothills increased erosion risk: deforestation, grazing , irrigation erosion On the background of strong climate aridization

5. Climatechange ( Uzglavhidromet) Long-term changes of the annual sums of precipitations Regional indicators of change of a climate evaporation

6. Climate impact Increase in scale and frequency of extreme phenomena

7. Changes of landscape Area of Aral Sea dry bottom was 50 Mha by 2007 The major environmental consequence of the Aral Sea shrinkage is an intensive development of desertification processes in Prearalie (coastal zone), occurrence of new desert ARAL-KUM

8. The consequences of degradation are: • Decreased lake and delta areas; • Lower groundwater levels; • Intensified salt and dust transfer; • Soil cover degradation; • Expended areas under solonchaks and sand; • Reduced reed areas; • Reduced tugai forest areas; • Climate aridization.

9. Comparison of health status indexes in different part of the Aral Sea basin

10. The consequences of shrinking Aral Sea 1 - actual inflow into delta, cub. km per year; 2 - restored inflow into the delta region, cub. km per year; 3 - runoff to the Aral Sea, cub. km per year; 4 - runoff, used within delta, cub. km per year; 5 - lake area, sq. km; 6 - flooded area, sq. km; 7 - tugai forest area, sq. km; 8 - muskrat skins in units.

11. According to rough estimates, direct losses in the Aral Sea area amount to (USD million per year): • Irrigation farming - 6,55 • Fisheries and fish breeding - 28.57 • Muskrat hunting - 4.0 • Cattle breeding - 8.4 • Recreation and tourism - 11.16 • Agriculture, total – 58,68 • Fish industry – 9.0 • Muskrat pelt processing – 18.0 • Cane processing – 12.6 • Transportation losses – 1.0 • Industry, total - 40.6 • Production, total – 99,28 • Indirect losses - USD 16.74 million • Social losses - USD 28.81 million • Thus total direct and indirect socio-economic losses as a result of environmental disaster in the Aral Sea region are estimated at USD 144,83 million.

12. Dynamics of GDP and GDP per person (*Dashoguz province estimated by market rate of US $; **Dashoguz province estimated by official rate of US $)

13. Climate impact Comparison of two climate change scenariosfor Chirchik-Akhangaran-Keles basin

15. Principal directions of Water-Climate changes program in Central Asia

16. The basin level .Short term • Water allocation depends on forecast-limit on vegetation and nonvegetation period • Permanent assessment and correction • Use of ground water, return flow • Mutual actions in combat of flood and drought

17. Работа Андижанского водохранилища

18. Содержит элементы управления и принятия решений Ориентирована на широкую аудиторию пользователей Модель зоны планирования База данных Гидрологич. модель Социально-эконом. модель Интерфейс Модель Аральского моря & Приаралья Моделирование текущее и перспективное

19. Long term • Scenarios of development • Target to watersaving • Rule of regulation and order of operation • Implementation of IWRM

21. УправленческиемеханизмыCAWater-info WWW CAWATER-INFO.NET

22. SCADA

23. Addressing Water Scarcity and Drought in Central Asia Due to Climate Change On the level wateruse

24. Strong water measuring Water turnover Application of film Alternate furrow irrigation Legumes planting

25. Improvement of water yield

26. IWRM – process or system? IWRM– system of management based on account and interaction of water (surface, ground, return) and associated land and other natural resources within hydrographic boundaries linking interests of various sectors and hierarchic levels in water and nature use involving all concerned parties in decision making, planning, funding, support and development for sustainable satisfaction of society and nature needs.

27. IWRM reference point – achieving potential water productivity by all water users • In irrigation – 1t grain – 0,62 m3, fact – 0,8…2,5 m3; • In municipal water supply – 1person/day – 0,10m3, fact – 0,2…0,6 m3 TOOLS AND MECHANISMS • Organizational; • Legislative; • Financial-economic; • Managerial; • Engineering; • Ethic.

28. Institutional aspects

29. ЮФК. Фактическая водоподача. Вегетация Общественное участие и Советы Водопользователей

30. Training • Development of demonstration network • Field workshops

31. УВЕЛИЧЕНИЕ ЧИСЛА УЧАСТНИКОВ