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February 13, 2013

Nuclear Power Reconsidered. February 13, 2013. sustainable energy policy. 1. Bottom line?.

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February 13, 2013

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  1. Nuclear Power Reconsidered February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 1

  2. Bottom line? • Nuclear power is expensive, and poses significant environmental risks and the risk of catastrophic events including nuclear weapons proliferation. However, given the immense challenge of reducing greenhouse gases, it is … • Unacceptable • Acceptable only if we can solve the problem of waste storage • Worth serious consideration • Acceptable as a transitional source or energy • A necessary risk sustainable energy policy

  3. Fukushima accident – March 2011 • Catastrophic failure of backup systems • A ‘focusing event’ that forced commercial nuclear power safety onto the agenda of many countries sustainable energy policy

  4. Fukushima accident - perspective • Wikipedia on Fukushima accidents • Several plants had core meltdowns; destroyed • 2nd (Chernobyl) Level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. • Radiation releases effected local food supply; 1/10 Chernobyl • No immediate deaths due to radiation exposure; 6 workers exceeded lifetime limits • Estimate: 100-1000 future excess deaths sustainable energy policy

  5. Fukushima accident – fallout (NPI) • Japan: all but 2 plants have been shut down • Germany – May 2011 announced plans to phase out nuclear power with 11 years • France – considering reduced reliance sustainable energy policy

  6. Monbiot vs. McKibbin • Every energy technology carries a cost; so does the absence of energy technologies. Atomic energy has just been subjected to one of the harshest of possible tests, and the impact on people and the planet has been small. The crisis at Fukushima has converted me to the cause of nuclear power. read • Japan's horror reveals thinnest of the margin on which modernity lives... We can try to deal with this in two ways. One is to attempt to widen it with more technology…The other possibility is to try to build down a little: to focus on resilience, on safety. And to do that – here's the controversial part – instead of focusing on growth.read George Monbiot Bill McKibben sustainable energy policy

  7. Agenda • Nuclear power: resource characteristics • Political psychology of risk analysis • Governance • Policy – BC • Policy – AB • Conclusion February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 7

  8. Reactor Design - LWR • Uses “light water” – regular water • Nuclear fuel needs to be enriched • Natural uranium only contains 0.7% fissionable U 235 • Up to 3-5% (90% for bomb) February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 8

  9. Reactor Design - CANDU • CANada Deuterium Uranium • Does not need enriched uranium • But needs “heavy water” - water which contains a higher proportion than normal of the isotope deuterium of hydrogen • Lower meltdown risk because loss of water shuts down reaction February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 9

  10. Nuclear Power Worldwide • 17% of world’s electricity generation • Country with most capacity installed: US • Country most dependent: France (~80%) February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 10

  11. Resource Characteristics (1) • abundance – relatively high • energy density – extremely high • One uranium pellet, which weighs about 20 grams, can provide energy equal to: • 400 kilograms of coal • 270 litres of oil or • 300 cubic metres of natural gas (Candu site) • cost per unit energy – high • reliability – moderately high February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 11

  12. Costs Wiki sustainable energy policy

  13. Environmental Impacts • “nuclear power has zero emissions of carbon dioxide, sulpher dioxide, and nitrous oxides” Duane Bratt (2005), p. 110 • “nuclear power has the smallest “footprint” in terms of the amount of energy generated per hectacre of land.” (Alberta Expert Panel Review) February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 13

  14. Environmental Impacts • Lower GHG impacts • “The fallacy of zero emissions” • Need to consider entire fuel cycle • uranium mining and milling • uranium refining • conversion and fuel fabrication • waste fuel management February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 14

  15. Comparative CO2 emissions February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 15 Oxford Research Group, Secure Energy, http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefing_papers/pdf/secureenergy.pdf

  16. Risk - Safety • low probability of potentially catastrophic event • meltdown • failure of cooling system • runaway chain reaction • significant release of radiation February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 16

  17. Risk – Nuclear Proliferation • nuclear weapons require highly enriched uranium or plutonium • technology used to enrich uranium for commercial nuclear power can also be used for weapons • “dirty bombs” February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 17

  18. Risk – Nuclear Waste • high vs low level • high level “unsolved” in any jurisdiction • long half-lives require containment for 10,000s years • deep burial technologically and economically feasible • sites approved in Finland; operation a long way off • material stored at existing facilities indefinitely February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 18

  19. Timeframe of decay sustainable energy policy

  20. Agenda • Nuclear power: resource characteristics • Political psychology of risk analysis • Governance • Policy – BC • Policy – AB • Conclusion February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 20

  21. Political psychology of risk analysis • Risk: probability times consequence • Most analysts believe nuclear power risks are low • Psychologists note how people focus more on catastrophic or unfamiliar consequences • Special political constraint to nuclear power February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 21

  22. Nuclear Image: From Panacea to Nightmare • Highly contested image • Pre-1970’s: promising high technology, “too cheap to meter” • 1970’s – one of major issues of environmental (anti-nuclear) - Came to symbolize • Danger • Environmental destruction • Centralization • Aggravated by Three Mile Island (1979) and Chernobyl (1986) February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 22

  23. Trends sustainable energy policy

  24. Is Reframing Possible? • Can it be successfully reframed in the wake of climate change • Canadian Nuclear Association: • Clean • Reliable • Affordable February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 24

  25. Pre-fukushima revival? sustainable energy policy

  26. Obama policies • Loan guarantees ($8 billion) • New enthusiasm for small modular reactors • LWR technology • As small as 40-150 MW • Plug and play: Made in factories and transported (reducing construction costs) sustainable energy policy

  27. Agenda • Nuclear power: resource characteristics • Political psychology of risk analysis • Governance • Policy – BC • Policy – AB February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 27

  28. Governance: Single Most Important Actor in Nuclear Industry? February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 28

  29. Governance: Single Most Important Actor in Nuclear Industry? February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 29

  30. Governance – Institutions • federal jurisdiction paramount due to safety and security issues • Also international jurisdiction under IAEA • provincial approval will still be required February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 30

  31. Governance – ActorsFederal Government • Atomic Energy Canada Ltd (AECL) – a crown corporation that makes and sells the CANDU reactor • 2009 – Harper government announced plans to privatize commercial reactor division • 2011 – CANDU Energy Inc sold to SNC-Lavalin • The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) • independent quasi-judicial agency • reports to Parliament through the Minister of Natural Resources • regulates the use of nuclear energy and materials to protect health, safety, security and the environment February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 31

  32. Governance – ActorsIndustry • Canadian Nuclear Association • Bruce Power • private nuclear power generating company • 20% of Ontario’s electricity • Bruce Power Alberta – new entity • 36% owned by Cameco February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 32

  33. Governance – ActorsEnvironmental Groups • Pembina • Greenpeace February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 33

  34. Current Policy: Federal Policy • Nuclear Safety Control Act governs approval process • site application triggers need for EA • CNSC is lead • no specific policy to promote nuclear power February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 34

  35. Agenda • Nuclear power: resource characteristics • Political psychology of risk analysis • Governance • Policy – BC • Policy – AB February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 35

  36. Current Policy - BC • Formally opposed to nuclear power • 2002, 2007 Energy Plans reaffirm commitments • Closest nuclear site is the Columbia Generating Station near Richland, Washington (1.1 GW) (Energy Information Administration) • New googleearth feature February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 36

  37. Current policy - Alberta • Current Alberta generating capacity (12 GW – 2007) • 60% coal • 30% natural gas • 10% hydro • power demand projected to increase 75% by 2024 compared to 2007 capacity • GHG concerns have provoked interest • Bruce Power Alberta proposed to build 4 reactors in Peace Region • Prompted government to establish expert panel (April 08) February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 37

  38. Expert Panel Conclusions February 2009 • Report largely positive • Economically, $370 million in economic activity annually per reactor • Environmentally, a plant releases no carbon dioxide • footprint on the landscape similar to hydro & wind • Waste disposal methods compared to CCS • Safety -3rd and 4th generation reactors offer improved safety procedures • All plants are subject to IAEA scrutiny. • Socially; “It is the panel's view that there are no separate social issues which fall within provincial jurisdiction that are uniquely associated with nuclear power generation...”. The GoA would meet many of the same challenges in nuclear plant construction that they do in large oil & gas developments.

  39. AB Government response • No special treatment: “The Government of Alberta has decided to maintain its existing policy where power generation options are proposed by the private sector in the province, and any nuclear power proposal would be considered on a case-by-case basis” sustainable energy policy

  40. Bruce Power Proposal http://www.brucepower.com/pagecontentAB.aspx?navuid=9090 • 2-4 reactors for 4000 MW • Not directly tied to oil sands • $10 billion • Neutral on reactor choice at present • Current site located 30 Km north of Peace River February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 40

  41. Bruce Power Proposal • Application for site license filed March 2008 • Triggers an EA under Canadian Environmental Assessment Act • Proposal dropped in December 2011 February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 41

  42. Conclusion • Renaissance due to lower GHG emissions, interrupted by Fukushima • Cost a serious issue • Comes with different risk profile • Serious risk perception issues February 13, 2013 sustainable energy policy 42

  43. Bottom line? • Nuclear power is expensive, and poses significant environmental risks and the risk of catastrophic events including nuclear weapons proliferation. However, given the immense challenge of reducing greenhouse gases, it is … • Unacceptable • Acceptable only if we can solve the problem of waste storage • Worth serious consideration • Acceptable as a transitional source or energy • A necessary risk sustainable energy policy

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