Main gaps in knowledge and technical capacity

1. Main gaps in knowledge and technical capacity Dr. Paul V. Desanker Vice-Chair,UNFCCC LDC Expert Group (Malawi) desanker@psu.edu

2. Main Gaps? • Depends who is asking!

3. ClimateChange Extremes and Coping Range Current Climate Changed Climate Climatic Attribute (X) Time(years) Coping Range Transition period – now?

4. Main gaps in knowledge in relation to Vulnerability and Adaptation • Although global conclusions about projected changes are of high confidence • Local changes cannot be predicted with confidence • Therefore, adaptation cannot be tailored to a specific climate change scenario • Along same lines, instances of weather cannot be readily attributed to climate change, for example, a flood cannot be attributed to climate change soon after it occurs. Extensive studies required. BUT, this does not impact on damages and impacts.

5. Main gaps in knowledge in relation to Vulnerability and Adaptation • Seasonal weather changes and disruptions probably the most significant impact affecting the most people in the short term. • Recent changes in rain season characteristics including diurnal temperature changes have far-reaching impacts on ecosystem goods and services such as food production. Although ability to provide seasonal forecasts, still cant predict weather.

6. Main gaps in knowledge in relation to Vulnerability and Adaptation • Major gaps related to lack of information about local knowledge <NEED TO MINE LOCAL KNOWELDGE> • Also need to experiment with coping strategies and new approaches – capacity building for adaptation. This has largely been missing for Africa despite GEF’s so-called staged approach. < need case studies – learn by doing>

7. Main gaps in knowledge in relation to Vulnerability and Adaptation • Attribution impossible in most cases EVEN FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES. But impacts significant all the same – we cannot wait for more data. • In the long-term, lines of evidence will make the case for adaptation easier, so need to collect evidence. Need to frame in economic terms. <COLLECT LINES OF EVIDENCE>

8. Main gaps in technical capacity • Forecasts have been shown to be effective at reducing damage. Technical capacity to monitor storms, floods, drought impacts, etc very limited in many countries. This is technology that is available. • Some of these tools are relatively cheap when it comes to outreach to rural areas where it’s a matter of communication <COMMUNICATING RISKS KEY TO RESPONSE STRATEGIES>

9. Main gaps in technical capacity • Inability to attribute specific events to climate change key to how adaptation should be approached. • Basically concept of incremental cost does not apply, especially given that climate models predict the same trajectories in climate for next 30 years or so regardless of emission reduction strategies. • The analysis of costs and benefits for any options is a major gap in relation to Africa

10. Main Conclusions • CC has started to happen and we should start to adapt. Addressing immediate concerns will contribute to learning to dealing with long-term needs • Long-term adaptation required, will be costly, and requires analysis in terms of costs and benefits to facilitate decision making. • The analysis of options and ranking of activities is an area that needs more effort

11. Main Conclusions • Technical gaps in knowledge about climate processes will not be overcome completely, so no excuse for inaction. • Specific predictions of climate change not necessary for adaptation activities that enhance adaptive capacity through coping • Climate change important for development, however, funding for development likely to complicate funding for climate change if the two combined.

12. LDC Issues • National Adaptation Program of Action for LDCs – since COP-7 • NAPA Preparation ongoing • Regional Workshops on NAPA to help countries in preparation of NAPA proposals and NAPAs– last one next week in Burkina Faso

13. LDC Issues – the LDC Fund • Issues at COP-9: how to fund NAPA activities • NAPAs will present a priority list of urgent adaptation needs. Question is how will the GEF select activities to fund including which countries? • What criteria to use to assess eligibility and ranking across countries?