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Hard Choices Ahead

Climate Change Seminar. 13 th February 2007. Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv. Hard Choices Ahead. Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia. C Red. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5.

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Hard Choices Ahead

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  1. Climate Change Seminar 13th February 2007 Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Hard Choices Ahead Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia CRed

  2. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 • Predictions include: • Greenhouse Gas emissions • Sulphates and ozone • Solar and volcanic activity Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

  3. Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 2003 1979 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • Nasa satellite imagery • 20% reduction in 24 years Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

  4. Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich City would be playing water polo!

  5. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2017.

  6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

  8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

  9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

  10. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

  11. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10-15% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand • Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 • New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2016 • New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2016

  12. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our • COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely. If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

  13. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? – • Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendantSecurity issues that raises.

  14. Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Business as usual Energy Efficient Future ? Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

  15. Electricity Options for the Future • Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010 • But 68% growth in gas demand • (compared to 2002) • Business as Usual • 257% increase in gas consumption • ( compared to 2002) The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing plant Additions to deal with demand changes Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010 25% renewables by 2025

  16. Alternative Electricity Options for the Future • 25% Renewables by 2025 • 20000 MW Wind • 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc. Energy Efficiency Scenario Other Options Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to be avoided Business as Usual Scenario New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels

  17. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. 5 hot air balloons per person per year. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person Is this Fair? "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

  18. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year • ~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2 • Standby on electrical appliances • 40+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons. • Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles

  19. Saving Energy – A Practical Guide Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint Micro CHP Heat Pumps Micro Wind

  20. Involve the local Community • The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. • On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. • Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. • Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

  21. Renewable Electricity Generation in GB Renewable Generation represented 4.2% of final demand in 2005

  22. Renewable Electricity Generation in GB by Region

  23. Renewable Electricity Generation by type and County in EEDA Region The output from Scroby Sands is sufficient to provide 95% of domestic demands of Norwich and Ipswich combined or 30% of demand on average

  24. Proportion of Electricity Consumption provided by Renewables: Norfolk and Suffolk Districts

  25. Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour. It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. • Otherwise Nuclear??? • Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us. Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

  26. The average family car releases 10 grams of CO2 every 50m Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington

  27. Some Myths about Wind Energy • What happens when the wind does not blow?. • Large Coal /Nuclear Stations trip/ have failures and these cause a loss of power within a matter of minutes. • In terms of short term variations wind is more reliable. • Wind Turbines kill birds. • Evidence suggesta that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. In many cases it is much less • Oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it. • Currently UK has around 1700 MW wind turbines installed perhaps 5000 birds killed a year • Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles

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