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Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

Climate outlook for 2014/15 October 2014. Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture. RSA rainfall deviation (mm) from average. Example of El Nino. Example of La Nina. Forecast for October 2014 –different forecasts. eutral. Neutral. Different models.

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Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

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  1. Climate outlook for 2014/15 October 2014 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

  2. RSA rainfall deviation (mm) from average

  3. Example of El Nino

  4. Example of La Nina

  5. Forecast for October 2014 –different forecasts eutral Neutral Different models

  6. Forecast for December 2014 –different forecasts eutral Neutral Different models

  7. Forecast for February 2015 –different forecasts eutral Neutral Different models

  8. Indian Ocean

  9. Indian Ocean Dipole Index

  10. L H H

  11. L H L H

  12. IOD Index forecast

  13. IOD Index forecast

  14. IOD Index forecast

  15. WET VERY DRY DRY WET/ NORMAL

  16. El Nino Neutral Neutral/El Nino La Nina La Nina

  17. La Nina El Nino Neutral Neutral/El Nino WET VERY DRY DRY La Nina WET/ NORMAL

  18. Normal effect of El Nino and Indian Ocean on rainfall

  19. Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Central to western Summer Rainfall Area Positive effect Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  20. Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Eastern Summer Rainfall Area Positive effect Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  21. Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present Winter Rainfall Area Positive effect Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Apr Jan Feb Mar May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

  22. L H L H

  23. Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD Positive effect Relative Effect IOD Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  24. Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD and El Nino Positive effect El Nino Relative Effect IOD Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  25. Effect on rainfall with Negative IOD and El Nino Positive effect Combined effect El Nino Relative Effect IOD Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  26. Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Combined effect Positive effect Combined effect Dry spell Normal Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  27. IF POSITIVE MODE + EL NINO……

  28. L H H

  29. Effect on rainfall with Positive IOD High cyclone frequency Positive effect Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  30. Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Central to western Summer Rainfall Area Positive effect Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  31. Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino + Positive IOD Positive effect Good start to season El Nino Drought Relative Effect IOD Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  32. Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino + Positive IOD Positive effect Good start to season Drought Not expected for 2014/15 Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  33. Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Combined effect Positive effect Combined effect Dry spell Normal Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Oct Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

  34. Thanks

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