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Human dynamics of climate change

Human dynamics of climate change. Aims to present impacts in the context of human activity – so you can make connections between climate and security. Latest climate projections ‘ Business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP 8.5)

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Human dynamics of climate change

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  1. Human dynamics of climate change Aims to present impacts in the context of human activity – so you can make connections between climate and security • Latest climate projections • ‘Business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP 8.5) • ‘Middle of the road’ population scenario (SSP2) • Changes from present day to the end of century

  2. Population Tropical cyclones Water stress Fragile states Trade Ports & airports Fish catch Shipping routes Glaciers Maritime chokepoints Present day human dynamics

  3. Future climate impacts Flood frequency Increases in flood frequency over large regions, smaller areas seeing decreases Run off Regions of both increase and decrease Water demand for irrigation Global increases in the amount of water needed by crops Coastal flooding Millions of people at risk of coastal flooding due to sea level rise and population increases Average crop yield Both increases and decreases in yield of wheat, rice and soybeans; Decreases for maize Temperature of warm days Increases globally Drought Global increases in number of days in drought Sea surface temperature Warming sea temperatures and acidification of the ocean threaten marine ecosystems

  4. Southeast Asia Present-day human dynamics • Densely populated • Areas of high water stress • Increasing population • Important region for rice exports& fishing • Exposed to tropical cyclones • Significant maritime transport region

  5. Future Climate ImpactsWater Run-Off -8% (-15% − -5%) Decreasing run off

  6. Future Climate ImpactsWater Demand for Irrigation 10% (-2% − 21%) Increasing water demand for irrigation

  7. Future Climate ImpactsCrop Yield -15% (-25% − -2%) 4% (-4% − 15%) Decreasing maize yield Increasing rice yield

  8. Future Climate ImpactsDrought 5% (1% − 17%) Increasing drought days

  9. Future Climate ImpactsFlooding and Coastal Floods 18,080,000 (17,880,000 − 18,650,000) 77% (56% − 84%) 2,450,000 (1,670,000 − 4,460,000) 12,760,000 (10,500,000 − 18,900,000) 4,220,000 (3,080,000 − 7,900,000) Increasing in population exposed to coastal flooding Increasing flood frequency for most areas

  10. Future Climate ImpactsWarm Days 4 ºC (3 ºC− 4 ºC) Increasing temperature of the warmest days

  11. Future Climate ImpactsSouth East Asia

  12. Human dynamics of climate change The maps are full of information about human activity and climate change Please have a look for yourself and explore the connections that can be made

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