Adapting to Climate Change

Adapting to Climate Change TACC Training Module 4 1

Objectives of the Module • Raise awareness of the importance of adaptation in preparing for and coping with climate change • Introduce key stages of effective adaptation planning • Highlight the importance of multi-level governance in adaptation actions • Introduce international support programmes and tools to support adaptation planning Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Overview • Section 1: Introduction to Climate Change Adaptation • Section 2: Conducting a Vulnerability Assessment • Section 3: Identifying and Selecting Adaptation Options • Section 4: Integration of Adaptation into Development Planning • Section 5: International Initiatives to Support Climate Change Adaptation Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

What is Climate Change Adaptation? “Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or humans systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” Parry et al, 2007 (IPCC) Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

What is Climate Change Adaptation? Adaptation… • Refers to action taken to prepare for and cope with climate change • Includes measures such as • introducing drought tolerant crops • constructing flood walls • Etc. • Decreases the vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Why is Climate Change Adaptation Important? • Climate Change may be more rapid and pronounced than expected • Impacts impose serious threats to lives and livelihoods in particular in developing countries • Adaptation helps minimize negative effects of environmental stress caused by climate change • May result in other, non-climate related benefits and win-win situations (e.g. for poverty reduction) • Fosters social-learning and creates more resilient societies • Inaction may have significant economic and social costs Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Why is Climate Change Adaptation Important? “Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inaction.” Rupert Murdoch Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Important Principles (1): Recognize Environment and Development Linkages • Since maintaining healthy and resilient ecosystems, achieving development priorities and improving the quality of life are as important as adaptation to climate change….. • …it is the combination of promoting conservation and restoration of ecosystems, development choices, adaptation actions and capacities that will allow us to effectively address the climate change. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Important Principles (2):Integrate Local Knowledge • Understanding the linkages between the impacts of a changing climate and their implications at the local level is more complex than is captured in spatial, regional and global climate models. • Participation of local partners is necessary to facilitate integration of climate impact information with local development knowledge to create pathways that promote resilience and adaptation to climate change. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Important Principles (3):Balancing Risks with Opportunities • Understanding adaptation as part of ecosystem management and development requires balancing the focus of the biophysical risks associated with climate change … • …with specific risks and opportunities in order to address issues such as ecosystem and human well-being, capacity and long-term development. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Economic Argument for Adapting to Climate Change • Predicted costs of inaction action are at least 5% of global GDP per year (Stern 2006) • Cost of reducing greenhouse gases and avoiding climate change impacts is 1% of global GDP • Benefit-cost ration of taking action on climate change 5:1 • Early adaption action cost-effective and prevents future losses associated with climate impacts • Diverse range of benefits for economy, ecosystems, human health, etc. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Why is Adaptation Relevant at the Sub-national Level? • Impacts of climate change are directly felt at the sub-national/local level • Local authorities are the first to receive the complaints/requests from the affected population • Most adaptation actions will be deployed at the local level • Adaptation measures have direct benefits for local population and ecosystems • Sub-national/local development planning well suited to integrate adaptation Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Approaches to Adapt to Climate Change Source: OECD Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Anticipatory vs. Reactive Adaptation Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Anticipatory and Reactive Adaptation: Natural and Human Systems Source: Klein 2007 Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Defining the Entry Point/System for Adaptation Planning Source: Flickr Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Considering Urban Systems and Urban Climate Change Adaptation • Many cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their geographic location (for example river deltas, low-lying coastal areas) • Urban infrastructure not designed for extreme whether events and the number of citizens served Source: BBC Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Considering Urban Systems and Urban Climate Change Adaptation (cont.) • Climate Change will contribute to accelerated rural-urban migration • Urban poor particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts (floods, mud slides, etc.) • In some cases, extreme events may destroy livelihoods of city dwellers Source: Pripode Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Examples of Urban Climate Change Adaptation • Hardening urban infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports, water and sanitation facilities, cyclone shelters etc. • Urban greening, roof gardens etc to reduce heat island effect • Development/restoration of urban eco-systems (e.g. wetlands to reduce flooding) • Improved land use planning and zoning to reduce settlement in disaster prone locations • Pro-poor Local Economic Development strategies that take climate change into consideration Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Considering Ecosystems and Ecosystem-based Adaptation • Use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to support an overall adaptation strategy • Aims to maintain and increase the resilience and services of ecosystems • Generates social, economic and cultural co-benefits (e.g. conservation of biodiversity, preservation of traditional knowledge systems) • Has climate change mitigation potential (e.g. sequestration of carbon through healthy forests, wetlands, and coastal ecosystems) • EBA is cross-cutting and likely to involve different levels of governance Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Examples of Ecosystem-Based Adaptation • Maintaining or restoring mangroves, coral reefs and watershed vegetation reduces vulnerability to storm surge, rising sea levels and changing precipitation patterns • Enhancing availability of natural resources as a source of food important to livelihoods • Supporting indigenous peoples to enhance traditional knowledge and management practices in light of a changing climate condition • Maintaining connectivity of ecosystems, e.g. through corridors allowing migration of animals in response to a climate change stress Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Data Requirements for Adaptation Planning • Climate data • National and local weather data • Seasonal forecasts • Predictions from climate models • Data on the natural and physical environment • Socio-economic data • Population dynamics including urbanization trends • Economic development forecasts • Planning information • National Development Plans • Sub-national and Municipal Development Plans • Etc. Source: UNEP Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Importance of Stakeholder Engagement (1) • Government not able to address the adaptation challenge alone • Stakeholders play an important role in implementing adaptation • Stakeholder engagement can bring important knowledge to the table (e.g. community groups at the local level) • Effective stakeholder engagement likely to enhance the acceptance of decisions taken Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Importance of Stakeholder Engagement (cont.) • The assessment of vulnerability at the local and regional levels is strongly centered on the involvement and knowledge of a diversity of stakeholders • Key stakeholders may include community members, policy-makers, researchers, experts, civil society and non-governmental organizations • Stakeholders’ involvement also helps in empowering local communities and decision makers as they can see decision themselves as valuable sources of knowledge for developing responses to climate change Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Identifying Stakeholders…. • They are affected by climate change and/or are living in areas of high vulnerability that could be exaggerated by progressing climate change • They have the information, resources or expertise required for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment, policy formulation and strategy implementation • They have control or an influence on key mechanisms for adaptation and strategy formulation, implementation and communication Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Questions • Do sub-national authorities have sufficient knowledge to understand climate variations (local and national scenarios)? • Is relevant information available to undertake sound adaptation planning? • How can uncertainties be integrated into decision-making? • How can local, sub-national and national adaptation action be harmonized? • How can sub-national authorities access funding to cover incremental costs for adaptation • Others…? Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

What is Climate Vulnerability? Source: UNEP • Vulnerability refers to the extent climate change is likely to damage or harm a system • Vulnerability may be identified • at different levels/scale (e.g. national, local) • for different sectors (e.g. agriculture, water) • for different population groups (e.g. women, children, urban poor, landless rural laborers) • Vulnerability assessments are important input for adaptation planning and help to identify where adaptation action is most appropriate Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Old vs. New Approach to Adaptation: Considering Vulnerability Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Broader Context of Climate Vulnerability • People and communities are experiencing a number of threats such as climate change, environmental degradation and social and economic changes • Impacts of these challenges interact and cumulatively increase the vulnerability of local and regional areas and populations Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Climatic and Non-climatic Variablesof Human Health Vulnerability • Concern • More frequent geographically widespread epidemics of infectious and waterborne disease • Climatic drivers • Climatic changes may increase the area and number of disease vectors • More frequent heavy rainfall and droughts could disrupt water supply and sanitation • Non-climatic drivers • Severely degraded health care system • Declining immunity, nutritional and health status of population • High poverty rates • Poor programs for disease surveillance, vector control, and disease prevention Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Factors Affecting Vulnerability Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Assessing the Potential Impact of Climate Change • Climate change impact assessments are based on scenarios of projections of future climate change and are presented as changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, etc. • Using available information and data, it is possible to analyze the recent changes and trends in climate parameters Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Source of Information for Assessing the Potential Impact of Climate Change • Global Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Circulation Models (RCM) are used with currently 50km resolution • The projections are uncertain as it is a highly complex, inter-dependent web, with possible tipping points that we are not understanding yet • Scenarios described in IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) used for projections • Key question: What are the human and environmental consequences? Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Guiding Questions for Assessing the Potential Impact of Climate Change • What are the changes in climate variables estimated by different climate model simulations (e.g. frequency of extreme events)? • Which elements of the system are exposed (e.g. agriculture, water supply)? • How susceptible or fragile is the system to climate variations? • How significant is the possible impact (e.g. changes in crop yields)? • What are the potential consequences of estimated impacts for development activities, capacities and adaptation strategies? Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Guidance Questions for Assessing Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change • To what extent are the natural and social systems capable of adapting to the predicted climate change? • Are resources, technology, education, etc. sufficient to adapt effectively? Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Example of Agricultural Vulnerability Agricultural vulnerabilityto climate change is described in terms of not only exposureto elevated temperatures, but also crop yield sensitivityto the elevated temperatures, impactson crop, and the adaptive capacityof farmers to adapt to the effects of that sensitivity, e.g., by planting more heat-resistant cultivars or by ceasing to plant their current crop altogether. Allen consulting and Schroter et al., 2005, Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Monitoring Vulnerability….. • State and trends • Frequency of natural events (e.g. floods) • Impacts and sensitivity • Population affected by natural disasters • Infrastructure, assets • Diseases and health care delivery • Indices • Human development index • Environmental vulnerability index • Index coastal risk index • Social vulnerability index Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Some examples of vulnerability assessments… Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Case of Rainfall in Kitui, Kenya • Potential Impact (Exposure) • The arid area of Kitui likely to receive less water in the future • Rains are no longer reliable and droughts may last longer • Potential Impact (Sensitivity) • Less drinking water available • Reduced crops due to lack of irrigation • Loss of income and increased poverty • Adaptive Capacity • Travelling large distances to collect fresh water not viable • Moving of population to other areas not possible • Technology not available for digging a deep well Source: Travel Pod Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Case of Coastal Zone Management in the Netherlands Source: Free Photo.com • Potential Impact (Exposure) • The Netherlands are already below sea level with dykes holding back the North Sea • Increased sea level increase risks of coastal inundation and erosion • Existing dykes may no longer be effective against higher sea levels • Potential Impact (Sensitivity) • A breach of Dykes would result in • Loss of land • Damage to crops • Damage to habitats and communities • Adaptive Capacity • Funds available to implement adaption measures (e.g. increase height of dams) • Skills and equipment available Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Case of Tropical Storms in Jamaica Source: USA Today • Potential Impact (Exposure) • The Caribbean already exposed to tropical storms • Storms projected to increase in intensity and frequency • Potential Impact (Sensitivity) • Increase of intensive storms may result in additional damage to crops • Soil erosion can follow damage to farm land • Loss of income and food security • Adaptive Capacity • Local community have some resources to deal with impacts • Limited technology and physical resources to prevent future damage • Availability of labour and some financial resources Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Vulnerability in Different Contexts: Summary Assessment for Case Examples Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Identifying and Selecting Adaptation Options • Ultimate Objective • Mainstreaming adaptation options into urban planning • Key characteristics of adaptation: “An adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007; Adger et al) • Key questions • What could be potential responses? • How would you prioritize these responses? Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Types and Examples of Adaptation Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Identifying Adaptation Options • Generate adaptation options without initial regard to feasibility, cost, etc. • Consider options that • Enhance flexibility (i.e. accommodate different climate scenarios) • Result in “no regrets” (i.e. generate benefits even without climate change) • Create co-benefits (e.g. reduction of toxic pollution) • Can accommodate short and long-term considerations Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Prioritizing Adaptation Options Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Scoring the Criteria Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Example of Criteria for Prioritization Options can be classified in categories such as : • Urgent adaptation options which can be done by municipalities themselves • Urgent adaptation options for which municipalities need assistance from the Government; options will be then allocated to the responsible ministries • Options that provide a non-regret options that help to address problems that they need to be dealt anyway • Adaptation options that are less important/urgent • Adaptation options for which there is no need or willingness to implement Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Adapting to Climate Change