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India-Pakistan Nuclear Arms Race

India-Pakistan Nuclear Arms Race. The Buzz. 1947- India takes independence from British rule 1971- War with Pakistan ends in formation of Bangladesh and East Pakistan 1974- India’s first underground nuclear test 1998- Pakistan follows India and carries out first nuclear test.

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India-Pakistan Nuclear Arms Race

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  1. India-Pakistan Nuclear Arms Race

  2. The Buzz • 1947- India takes independence from British rule • 1971- War with Pakistan ends in formation of Bangladesh and East Pakistan • 1974- India’s first underground nuclear test • 1998- Pakistan follows India and carries out first nuclear test

  3. Celebrity Marriages • 1948- Soviet Union recognizes Pakistan  Pakistani Prime Minister chooses to visit U.S. • 1956- Pakistan condones Hungarian repression • 1957- Soviet Union supports India in Kashmir • 1971- Bangladesh War • 1972- Simla Agreement • 1980s- Pakistan assists in expelling Soviet troops from Afghanistan • 2001- Pakistan supports U.S. in severing ties with Taliban

  4. “The Bling” • India has second strike capability, Pakistan does not • India has enjoyed at least a 2.5:1 military advantage and a 4:1 overall capability advantage • “Pakistan being the conventionally weaker power has employed such strategies as terrorism, proxy wars, and low-to-medium intensity violence post 1987” • “Pakistan’s authoritarian military and hybrid governments have usually been more escalatory”

  5. Indecent Proposals A nuclear armed Pakistan cannot be deterred like other nuclear powers. Affirmative • Ideological claim Kashmir • Alliances to major powers • Technical safety compromise Negative • Security of the homeland • Interdependence

  6. Democratic states are more likely to use nuclear weapons responsibly. Negative • History- U.S. World War II • Preventative War • History- Soviet Union and Red China Affirmative • Kant’s Democratic Peace • Liberal Tradition

  7. These states should be recognized as “nuclear powers” by the NPT Agree • Allow regulation and control of programs • Ban spreading of weapons • Improve US-India relations Disagree • Precedent of recognizing whatever nuclear power proliferates • India and Pakistan are able to increase their nuclear knowledge

  8. The UN should put sanctions in place until the states give up their nuclear weapons • Balance international system • Set precedent for other nations who want to proliferate • Most effective on Pakistan Disagree • Strain relations • Internal destabilization • Upset Balance of Power of nuclear dyad

  9. The presence of nuclear weapons on the subcontinent increases the probability of conventional and nuclear war Agree • Pakistan’s chief nuclear scientist • Pakistan lacks second strike capability • Military-Government relations are questionable Disagree • Statistically, war has decreased since 1987 • Cuban missile crisis • MAD

  10. Scenes from the next episode Scenario: The Pakistani Military has pulled a coup d’etat and taken control of all nuclear facilities and airfields days after a successful nuclear test. The terrorist organization PKK is conducting uncontrolled operations in Kashmir and the new Pakistani government has sent troops to the Kashmir border. India immediately followed and mobilized to their border.

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