Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Pathway towards Sustainability

1. Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Pathway towards Sustainability • Das Gupta • Emeritus Professor • AIT, Bangkok Workshop on “Climate Change and Water Resources: Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs” ASEAN-EU Science, Technology and Innovation Days Bangkok, Thailand,21-23 January 2014

2. Water is a vital source of life, and culture greatly determines a person’s “way of life.”

3. In most cultures water is alsoa source of inspiration Indian woman praying at the Ganges River

4. Water-dependent Systems

5. Facing the facts Changes in temperatures (1980-2012) The five hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997 and the 10 hottest since 1990, including the warmest years on record – 2005 and 2010. Source: World Bank (2013) Adopted from Mukand S. Babel (2013), Keynote address on “Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Cases from Asian Countries”, Expert Workshop on “Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities”, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-18 October.

6. Facing the facts Precipitation Adopted from Mukand S. Babel (2013), Keynote address on “Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Cases from Asian Countries”, Expert Workshop on “Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities”, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-18 October.

7. Climate Change: Local Insights Impact on Maximum Temperature (Change in °C) Maximum temperature is projected to increase in all the basins during three future periods. The range of increase varies from 1.0 to 4.2°C under A2 scenario and from 0.8 to 2.6 °C under B2 scenario in late century period. Adopted from Mukand S. Babel (2013), Keynote address on “Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Cases from Asian Countries”, Expert Workshop on “Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities”, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-18 October.

8. Climate Change: Local Insights Impact on Minimum Temperature (Change in °C) The range of increase in Tmin varies from 0.7 to 4.2°C under A2 scenario and from 0.4 to 2.6 °C under B2 scenario in late century period. Adopted from Mukand S. Babel (2013), Keynote address on “Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Cases from Asian Countries”, Expert Workshop on “Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities”, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-18 October.

9. Climate Change: Local Insights Impact on Precipitation (% change) Precipitation shows different directions of change in various basins. The range varies from -14.6 to 25% change under A2 scenario and from -11.4 to 19% change under B2 scenario for late 21C. Adopted from Mukand S. Babel (2013), Keynote address on “Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Cases from Asian Countries”, Expert Workshop on “Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities”, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-18 October.

10. Hydrology and Water Resources • Afghanistan • Kabul basin • Nepal • Bagmati basin • Koshi basin • Tamakoshi basin • Thailand • Chi basin • Ping basin • Mae Klong basin • Pak Phanang basin • Bangkok • Yang basin • Vietnam • Ba River basin • South Central Coast Adopted from Mukand S. Babel (2013), Keynote address on “Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Cases from Asian Countries”, Expert Workshop on “Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities”, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-18 October.

11. Climate Change: Local Insights Impact on runoff (% change) Adopted from Mukand S. Babel (2013), Keynote address on “Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Cases from Asian Countries”, Expert Workshop on “Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities”, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-18 October.

12. Crop Yield • India • Sikkim • Thailand • Chi basin • Mun basin • Uganda • Wet agro-ecological zones • Dry agro-ecological zones • Vietnam • Quang Nam Province Adopted from Mukand S. Babel (2013), Keynote address on “Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Cases from Asian Countries”, Expert Workshop on “Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities”, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-18 October.

13. Climate Change: Local Insights Impact on crop production (Change in %) Yield is expected to decrease in future periods; In Uganda during Sept-Nov season Maize yield is projected to increase. Adopted from Mukand S. Babel (2013), Keynote address on “Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology, Water Resources and Water Use Sectors: Cases from Asian Countries”, Expert Workshop on “Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty: Challenges and Opportunities”, Bangkok, Thailand, 17-18 October.

14. What is Being Observed? • People are observing new trends in disaster impacts • Traditional weather prediction does not work • Traditional disaster planning and policy are not working • New development activities are going on, without further consideration of future climatic scenario • Thus, there is a lack of: • Proper perception on climate change • Proper understanding and correlation • Proper inter-linkages, and • Appropriate Actions

15. Increasing Water Scarcity Threat of Waterborne Illness Meeting Water Needs of the Growth Rising Cost of Energy New Stringent Regulations Massive Infrastructure Needs Key Challenges of Water Management

16. Access to Water Food Security Energy Demand

17. An Integrated consideration of Nexus Needed

18. Sustainability The iconic definition: “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future (1987)

19. What is the Implication? • The present must dialogue with the future ---Cooperation …across generations at center stage…Inter-generational cooperation… • Promoting equity and values of sustainable development… • Inter-generational cooperation allows for ‘cross-fertilization’ between seniors’ experience and juniors’ skills and ideas Leading to Sustainable Water Management

20. Why we need to talk about Sustainable Water Management? 1/2 Three Realities…….. • The climate and the consequent supply of water is becoming more variable – whether due to global warming or not!!!! …………the reality is we need to deal with the increasing level of uncertainty & variability……how we do that?????

21. Why we need to talk about Sustainable Water Management? 2/2 • Secondly, the demand for water will increase……in many countries, domestic water use is currently less that 25 l/person …….certainly pressing the system with socio-economic growth • Thirdly, concern for the environment!!!!!

22. How to deal with the problems the society is facing due to these realities? 1/3 • To address the first…..need adequate storage, what we can do to have more storage??? …..most water storage available is in the ground …..Why then we have not made use of this storage? …..Lack of knowledge & lack of Research and Development (R&D)

23. How to deal with the problems the society is facing due to these realities? 2/3 • To address the second…..need recognizing vast majority of public water use is non-consumptive goes as waste water…. …..very little reused… …..What would then be the way forward? …..Strategically mainstreaming recycling & reusing waste water for beneficial use in specific sectors

24. How to deal with the problems the society is facing due to these realities? 3/3 • To address the third…..must aim for some form of sustainability……..However, …..we need to decide what is that we are trying to sustain??? …..Is the target for sustainability the water as a source of public supply? …..Yes, then use the renewable water resources or sustainable water yield concept …..Is it the water for its own sake? …..Initially it appears to be not, but Yes,…risk of pollution makes the resource vulnerable….on long-term basis effects the water supply & …..another aspect: water dependent ecosystems …..In conclusion, both resource itself and its function

25. Sustainability = 3 Ps $$

26. The CLEWS Framework The framework integrates LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning Tool by SEI), WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning Tool by SEI) and AEZ (Agro-ecological Zoning by IIASA and FAO) models with Climate Change scenarios Mark Howell et. al. (2013), Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies, Nature Climate Change, Vol.3, pp.621-626 (www.nature.com/natureclimatechange)

27. The Nautilus shell symbolizes different layers of culture.

28. Floods in Thailand (2011) Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines (2013) Hurricane Sandy in the United States (2012)

29. Concept of Disaster Risk Management System (DRMS) Centered around two basic principles Involvement of All Stakeholders Implementation at all Phases of DRM

30. Essence of DRM 1) Disaster Risk Management Cycle Four phases: Prevention/Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, Rehabilitation/Reconstruction 2) Risk Management Flow Specific methodology of risk management 3) DRM Strategy - Establishment of coordination mechanisms and legal framework for disaster reduction - Integration of disaster reduction concept into development planning - Improvement of information sharing and management - Promotion of education and public awareness - Development of multi-stakeholder partnerships and citizen participation

31. Disaster Risk Management Cycle Proactive Post-disaster stage Pre-disaster stage Reactive

32. Journey in Risk Management • All Hazards Approach • We are the Users • Disaster Risk Management Flow

33. What we need to assess... • what your most costly Hazards are? • where your highest risk locations are? • which of your critical facilities are most vulnerable to hazards? • where your most vulnerable populations live? • how susceptible your local economy is to hazards? • what environmental resources are most at risk? • what your best opportunities are to mitigate future impacts from natural disasters?

34. There is no Sustainable Solution without a Water Solution

35. We have the Technology We have the tools to assess use & functions of water systems holistically considering human components, physical components and biological and biogeological components

36. Public Opinion Matters Greater transparency & awareness of water issues (climate change), adaptation measures & benefits and cost can be a big driver of change.

37. Bangkok Post, 05 December 2013

38. Bangkok Post, 10 January 2014

39. Application of Hydraulic Structures & Schemes Water Vital elements Water Destructive elements Human Being Protection against water Utilization of water Water supply Sewage treatment Irrigation Drainage Hydropower Flood protection Protection against erosions Navigation Adaptive with community’s infrastructure, custom and values

40. How do we respond to Hazards & Disaster Risk? Risk Assessment Prevention Preparedness Response Recovery Emergency Management “PPRR” Framework

41. Bangkok Post, 10 January 2014

42. Living well within our resources

43. There is no Planet B Sustainability matters

44. Thank you It takes 17 million barrels of oil to meet Americans’ demand for bottled water This excludes the cost of transportation, refrigeration and recycling It takes 3 liters of water to make a 1 liter bottle of water for your Attention