Dr. Sara Z. Kutchesfahani Los Alamos National Laboratory

1. From Nuclear Rivalry to Nuclear Cooperation: The Role of an Epistemic Community in the Creation of ABACC (1980-1991) Dr. Sara Z. Kutchesfahani Los Alamos National Laboratory Presentation for the Commemoration of the 20th Anniversary of ABACCRio de Janeiro, Brazil 11 November, 2011

2. Outline • Background • Theoretical Framework • The Case of ABACC

3. Background Theoretical Framework The Case of ABACC Outline

4. Background: Why Argentina & Brazil were Suspected of Pursuing a Nuclear Weapons Programme Regional rivalry – living under military leaderships Nuclear fuel cycle – unsafeguarded nuclear facilities Anti international nuclear non-proliferation regime – NPT, NSG, full-scope IAEA safeguards, Treaty of Tlatelolco

5. Transition to democracy (Solingen 1994, Paul 2000, Levite 2002/2003, Muller and Schmidt 2010) Pursuit of economic liberalisation (Solingen 1994) Trust building through confidence building measures (Redick 1995, Reiss 1995, Wheeler 2009) Background: Why Argentina & Brazil did not pursue a Nuclear Weapons Programme

6. Background Theoretical Framework The Case of ABACC Outline

7. Epistemic Community Framework • Characteristics: “Network of professionals with recognized expertise and competence in a particular domain and an authoritative claim to policy-relevant knowledge within that domain or issue area. […] They share (1) normative and principled beliefs; (2) causal beliefs; (3) notions of validity; and (4) common policy enterprise.” (Haas 1992: 3) • Emergence: Times of uncertainty and complexity provide an opening for an epistemic community to influence decision makers. • Influence Mechanisms: Policy Innovation – Policy Diffusion – Policy Selection – Policy Persistence: Role of knowledge and access to decision makers.

8. Epistemic Community at Work INTERNATIONAL LEVEL i.e., new international agreements 4 4 4 State A State B State C STATE LEVEL Decision makers STATE LEVEL Decision makers STATE LEVEL Decision makers 3 3 3 3 3 SUBSTATE LEVEL SUBSTATE LEVEL SUBSTATE LEVEL Scientists Scientists Scientists Academics Academics Academics 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Analysts Governmentofficials Analysts Governmentofficials Analysts Governmentofficials 1 1 1

9. Background Theoretical Framework The Case of ABACC Outline

10. May 1980: Brazilian General Figuerido visits Buenos Aires First joint nuclear agreement is signed 1983-1989: Transition to democracy A&B scientists began calling for bilateral nuclear cooperation and mutual inspections Reciprocal visits Signing of 5 nuclear cooperation agreements 1990-1991: New Presidents Decision to create a mutual safeguards inspection regime was made Signing of 4 nuclear cooperation agreements (incl. SCCC and ABACC) ABACC Origins

11. ABACC Epistemic Community: Who? • “Combination of political leadership and physicists” • “Scientists played a very key role in the establishment of ABACC” • “Scientists were very influential and their role was fundamental in the creation of ABACC” • “Scientists, nuclear experts, diplomats, and other relevant officials according with the competence of nuclear matters in each country” • “Scientists offered the structure behind ABACC” • “The main impulse for opening up [the nuclear programmes] came from the highest authorities in government” • “There were no closed segments just for scientists or diplomats. Communications among all those sectors were very fluid and interactive”

12. Shared similarities: Competing for economic and political leadership in the Southern Cone Living under military dictatorships Deterioration of their economies Similar progress in their civilian nuclear programmes Shared ideas: Determination to acquire technological autonomy (energy independence) The right to engage in peaceful nuclear explosions Resisting against a perceived discriminatory nature of the nuclear non-proliferation regime Fostered through participation in various international fora (including IAEA BoG and UN Conference on Disarmament), Pugwash, and in joint scientific and technical research. ABACC Epistemic Community: Emergence?

13. How was ABACC Created? Desire to achieve technological autonomy Discriminatory nature of non-proliferation regime ARGENTINA • Government officials • Scientists Development of common nuclear policy 3 1 1 1 2 Establishment of a mutual safeguards regime • JWG/PCNA • Reciprocal visits • Joint Declarations ABACC KEY: 1 = Policy Innovation 2 = Policy Diffusion 3 = Policy Selection 4 = Policy Persistence 4 2 3 1 2 3 BRAZIL • Government officials • Scientists Desire to achieve technological autonomy Discriminatory nature of non-proliferation regime Development of common nuclear policy 1 1 1950 1970s 1980s 1991

14. Why ABACC is Important