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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. DECEMBER 2012. Economic Outlook is revized in the 1st and the 3rd weeks of the month. Recent Update: 04/12/2012. OUTLINE. A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK 1) MERCHANDISE 2) SERVICES C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES

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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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  1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DECEMBER 2012 Economic Outlook is revized in the 1st and the 3rd weeks of the month. Recent Update: 04/12/2012 December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  2. OUTLINE A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK 1) MERCHANDISE 2) SERVICES C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY E- BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE December2012 Ministry of Economy

  3. A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK December 2012Ministry of Economy

  4. GrowthForecastsforSelectedCountries/Country Groups (%) Source: IMF, OECD, UN, WB • According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2012. • In the first two quarters of 2012, Turkish economy grew by 3,2% and 2,9% respectively, resulting in an average growth of 3,05% in the first half of 2012 December 2012Ministry of Economy

  5. Forecasts for Merchandise and Services Trade Growth (%) Source: IMF and WTO • According to the IMF estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2012 and 4,5% in 2013. • According to the WTO estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.7% in 2012 and 5.6% in 2013. December 2012Ministry of Economy

  6. Economic Targets of 2013-2015 Medium Term Programme *Forecast (Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development – October 9, 2012) • Medium Term Programme which covers 2013-2015 period aims to strengthen macroeconomic and financial stability by reaching potential economic growth rate, decreasing the current account deficit further, reducing inflation and improving public fiscal balances. December 2012Ministry of Economy

  7. Real GDP Growth of SelectedCountries/Country Groups (2011) Source: TURKSTAT, IMF • Turkish Economy expanded by 8.5% in 2011, which was well beyond the expectations of the IMF (7.5%). December 2012Ministry of Economy

  8. AnnualEconomicGrowthRates (2002-2011) Source:TURKSTAT • Turkey has recovered fast from the global financial crisis and amongstthose countries affected less from current global economic uncertainties. • Turkey has the fastest economic growth rates in Europe. • Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2011 was 6%. • Real GDP growth for 2011 realized as 8.5%. • Turkey grows 3.05% in first the half of 2012. December 2012Ministry of Economy

  9. GDP Per Capita Source: TURKSTAT, Worldbank • GDP per capita has tripled in the last 10 years from 3,492 USD to 10,444 USD. According to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP),GDP per capita surpassed 16 thousand USD. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  10. Capacity Utilization Ratio (%) Source: TURKSTAT • Capacity utilization ratio realized as 74% in November 2012. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  11. Industrial Production Index Source: TURKSTAT • Industrial production index increased by 6.2% year-over-year in September 2012 up to 135.47. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  12. Inflation (Annual Percent Change) Source: TURKSTAT • Annual inflation in 2011 realized as 10.4%. • Monthly CPI change in November 2012 realized as 6.37%. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  13. Real EffectiveForeign Exchange Rate (2003=100)   Source: CBRT • As of November 2012, Turkish Lira has appreciated by 1,6% monthly in terms of the CPI-based real effective exchange rate. • The level of appreciation is 2,9% in terms of the PPI-based real effective exchange rate. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  14. Total Creditsand Consumer Credits (Billion TL)   Source: BRSA • Credits and specifically consumer credits increased to 187 billion Dollar in parallel to the growing domestic demand. • Total credits increased to 771,8 billion Dollar on a monthly basis in October 2012. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  15. CDS Premiums (Dec4th, 2012) Source: DB Research * Higher CDS premiums indicate higher risk levels. • CDS premium of Turkey is significantly low compared to most of the European countries. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  16. Financial Markets   Source: BRSA • Total assets of the banking sector increased by 7.8% and reached 1.308 trillion TL in September 2012. • Capital Adequacy Ratio of Turkish Banking Sector is 16.49% in September 2012. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  17. EU Defined Budget Deficit/ GDP (%) 2011 • EU defined general government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 2.6% in Turkey in 2011 and Turkey satisfied the Maastricht criteria of 3%. Turkey also outperformed 18 EU Countries. • Central government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 1.3% in Turkey in 2011 and Turkey outperformed 23 EU Countries. • In January-October 2012, central government budget deficit has increased to 18.8 billion dollars. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  18. GovernmentDebt / GDP (%) Source:Eurostat • Debt/GDP ratio of Turkey was 39.4% in 2011, which was below the level in 21 EU Countries and the Maastricht Criteria (60%). December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  19. UnemploymentRates (%) Source: TURKSTAT • In August 2012, the unemployment rate was 8.8%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 9.2%. • Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Euro Area was 11.7% and 10.7% in (EU27) in October 2012. In terms of unemployment ratio Turkey outperformed 14 EU countries according to current data. • After Russia, Germany, England and France, Turkey has the 5th largest labor force among the European countries. (2010, World Bank) December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  20. Potential of Population (2010) Source: World Bank • Turkey has a population of 74.7 million in which half of the population is under the age of 29.7. • Growth rate of population is 1.36% in Turkey, 0.28% in EU Countries and -0.24% in Germany. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  21. GrowingDynamism in Turkey'sDomestic Market • Cell phone penetration rate in households: 93.2% • Internet access rate in households: 47.2% • Internet access rate in enterprises: 92.5% • PC penetration rate in households: 31.8% • Laptop penetration rate in households: 27.1% • Digital camera penetration rate in households: 27.1% • Printer penetration rate in households: 14.0% • 1 of each 5 people owns a vehicle. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  22. B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  23. I) MERCHANDISE December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  24. Targets in MerchandiseTrade * Actual (Source: TURKSTAT) **Forecast: Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development- 10/09/2012) December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  25. Turkey'sShare in Global MerchandiseExports (%) Source: WTO • Turkey’s share in global merchandise exports was %0.74 in 2011. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  26. ForeignTrade Volume/GDP (%) Source: TURKSTAT • The ratio of foreign trade volume/GDP was 48,7% in 2011. • Turkey’s integration to the international trade system is eminent. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  27. ForeignTradeDevelopments 2010 - 2011 / 2011-2012 January-October * Energy corresponds to Chapter 27. Source: Ministry of Economy • In January- October 2012, compared to the same period of the previous year, exports increased by %13,4 and imports decreased by %2,9 respectively. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  28. MonthlyExports/Imports • In October 2012 compared to October 2011 exports have increased by 11,6% and reached to the level of 13,3 billion dollar and imports have decreased by 5,6%, to the level of 18,8 billion dollar. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  29. Distribution of ForeignTrade in BroadEconomicCategories EXPORT Source: TURKSTAT IMPORT Source: TURKSTAT December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  30. Main ExportItems * Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2012. Source: TURKSTAT December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  31. Main ImportItems * Percent change is related to the annual change in imports in 2012 Source: TURKSTAT December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  32. Main Import Partners (Share,%) Main Trade Partners (January-October2012) Main Export Partners (Share,%) Source: TURKSTAT December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  33. ExportsbyRegions Source: TURKSTAT December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  34. Imports by Regions Source: TURKSTAT December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  35. TariffRates Source: WTO Tariff Profiles, 2011 December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  36. 2) SERVICES December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  37. Targets in Services • Tourism:Besidesincreasingthenumber of touristarrivals, creating a structurethatimproves service quality, targetshigh-incomegroupsbydiversifying marketing channels, preservesnaturalcapitalandsustainability, andstimulatesthosetypes of tourismwhereTurkey has comparativeadvantages • Construction, Engineering-Architecture, Technical ConsultancyandContracting Services:Establishing a structurethatfitsTurkey’seconomicandsocialneeds, that is compatiblewithhightechnologyandinternationalrules, that is sensitivetoenvironment,thatcreateshighvalueadded, highforeignexchangeinflowandhighemployment, thatgrantshigh service quality, andthatrelies on qualifiedhumanandphysicalcapital. • Commercial Services: Increasingproductivityandcommercialtradevolumein a competitiveway, andtoencouragetechnologyandinnovation. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  38. Turkey'sShare in Global Services Exports (%) Source: WTO, CBRT • Turkey’s share in global exports of services was 0.92% in 2011. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  39. Balance of Payments - Services *January-September Source: CBRT December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  40. TourismStatistics (Quarterly, 1000) Tourists visited, Source: TURKSTAT • Turkey ranks as the 6th in the world and the 4th in Europe among the most favourite tourism destinations. • Turkey’s income per tourist increased by 18% in 2010 and 1% in 2011. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  41. Contracting Services Abroad Contributions to the overall economic performance: Creating foreign exchange inflow, exports, employment, technology transfer; adding to the machinery stock, facilitating internationalization • 31 out of the world’s top 225 contracting companies are Turkish. • Turkey ranks as the 2nd country (following China) in terms of the number of top contracting companies. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  42. Logistics • Europe’s biggest truck fleet • (45 thousands trucks and 1,420 companies) • Almost 1 million flights in 2011 • (2.3 million tonnes freight and 117 million passengers) • 25. biggest fleet in the world • 45 airports and 51 ports • Total length of divided highways will reach 15 thousand kilometers. • High-speed railway projects are carried out rapidly. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  43. Energy • Turkey is an energy hub between energy producer and consumer regions December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  44. C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  45. InvestmentClimate in Turkey December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  46. Time Requiredto Start a Business Source: Invest In Turkey • The required time to start a business is 6 days in Turkey. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  47. SkilledLabourAvailability Source: Invest In Turkey • Scoring is between 0 and 10. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  48. Transparency in Finance Sector Source: Invest In Turkey • Scoring is between 0 and 10. December 2012 Ministry of Economy

  49. TheSectoralBreakdown of ForeignInvestments * January - September Source: CBRT December2012 Ministry of Economy

  50. Breakdown of ForeignInvestmentsby Country * January – September Source: CBRT December2012 Ministry of Economy

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