Megacity, Air quality and Climate: Observations and multi-scale Modelling

1. Air pollution and globalisationØystein HovNorwegian Meteorological InstituteEnvironmental Prediction into the Next DecadeTechnical WMO conferenceIncheon, Republic of Korea17 November 2009

2. Megacity, Air quality and Climate: Observations and multi-scale Modelling Environmental impact incl health Atmospheric composition analysis and forecasting Regional and urban Air pollution analysis And prediction Global modelling And data assimilation Satellite and In-situ observations Scale bridging

3. Air quality issues • Air quality and health, • acidification, • eutrophication, • UV - enhancement, • surface ozone, • visibility impairment, • ecosystems exposed to toxic substances, • climate change - greenhouse gases and PM/CDNC • climate services – downscaling to high resolution • Emissions - estimation, validation, compliance

5. Per-capita NOx emissions1940-2030 The US and Europe is ”greying”

6. Biogeochemical cycles S N CO2, VOC, CO, CH4 PM Globalisation: Local, regional, global cycles; S, N, VOC, PM are cycled locally/regionally but with global implications for atmospheric composition and climate BC IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7 p 535

7. Globalisation of economies and emissions Claire Granier, CNRS

8. IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7

9. Lelieveld et al., 2004

10. Emissions and removal over Europe 2000 S and N S and N emissions in Europe are deposited inside Europe EMEP Report 1/2003

11. Long range transport of air pollution – very long range transport Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] (IIASA) 2000 2010 2020 Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5, average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

12. Anthropogenic sulfur emissions in Europe – from “black” to “grey”

13. Has this reduction affected temperatures over Scandinavia?If so, to what extent? Is this a coincidence, or actual relationship??? From HC Hansson, ITM, SU

14. 7000 90 80 6000 70 5000 60 World population milions Agricultural surface World population and 4000 50 Fertilizers and NOx Agricul. surface milions ha Fertilizer Tgr 40 3000 NOx emissions 30 2000 20 1000 10 0 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Fritz Haber Carl Bosch N = food; energy = N

15. Changes in NO2 (from “grey” to “black”) • Excellent agreement between SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 measurements • Good agreement also with OMI in spite of time difference of measurements • => if the same retrieval is used, satellites provide a very consistent picture A. Richter, A. Hilboll, M. Vrekoussis, F. Wittrock, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, J. Yoon, O. Schneising, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, J. Heymann Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen FB1, Germany

16. Changes in SO2 Nov. 08 volcanic A. Richter, A. Hilboll, M. Vrekoussis, F. Wittrock, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, J. Yoon, O. Schneising, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, J. Heymann Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen FB1, Germany SO2 columns show upward trend since 1996 Accelerating increase from 2001 Sharp decrease in 2008 / 2009

17. SRES A2 IIASA CLE 2050 (+Climate Change) IIASA CLE IIASA MFR Global anthropogenic NOx emission scenarios 2000-2100 OriginalSRES B2 IIASA‘currentlegislation’(based on B2socioeconomics) Courtesy Markus Amann, IIASA ACCENT Photocomp runs Royal Society runs (+Climate Change: T- and PAR-change influence on isoprene and lightning NOx emissions)

18. NOx in RCP8.5

19. Air pollution abatement strategies turn cities and regions from ”black” to ”grey” globally in particular outside of the tropics • Even though fossil fuel consumption in cities, regions and globally increase as do the CO2 emissions, the air pollution precursor emissions decline (SO2, NOx, VOC, PPM) • A global change from ”black” and ”white” to ”grey” everywhere in terms of air pollution. • Climate change unabated

20. Thank you for the attention

21. The greying of Europe Environmental impacts of air pollutionGAINS estimates for 2000 PM Eutrophication Ozone Acid, forests Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat. ecos.

22. CO2 emissions GtC/a

23. IPCC AR4 Summary for policymakers Climate change feedback on air pollution in the future

24. Model result:In Northern mid-latitudes, 35-65% of present-day surface O3 originates from anthropogenic NOx, CH4, CO and NMVOCs Assumes no change in biomass burning or soil NOx between 1750 and present Average of 5 model calculations STOCHEM-HadAM3 (Edinburgh), STOCHEM-HadGEM (UKMO), UMCAM (Cambridge), TM4 (KNMI), FR56C (O Wild)

25. The Greying of Europe. Tropospheric Trace Gases Observable by Satellite Nitrogen Dioxide: (requires separation from stratosphere) Formaldehyde Carbon Monoxide Jack Fishman, NASA, ESA-ESTEC presentation from www

26. Projected changes inJJA surface O3 forthree 2030 scenarios ACCENT models ensemble mean JJA surface O3 changes 2000-2030 under three scenarios: IIASA CLE IIASA MFRSRES A2 Dentener et al., 2006 IIASA CLE Mean of 20models IIASA MFR 25 SRES A2

27. SO2 emissions Claire Granier, CNRS

28. EMEP MSCW 2009

30. Remaining problem areas in 2020Light blue = no risk Health - PM Health+vegetation - ozone Vegetation – N dep. IIASA, Amann Forests – acid dep. Semi-natural – acid dep. Freshwater – acid dep.

31. Co-bene-fits of cont-rol of ozone pre-cursor emis-sions