1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page

1. 1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page • Title: Space Weather Risk Reduction for GOES-R including Solar Observing Instruments (SUVI and EUVS), In-situ Instruments (SEISS and MAG) and Data Browse and Retrieval Interface • Project Type: Product Development Proposal and Product Improvement Proposal • Status: New • Duration: 3 years Level of Effort Directly for R3Support Source • Lead: • Dr. Terry Onsager – NOAA/SEC 10% NOAA/SEC Base • Other Participants: • Dr. Steven Hill – NOAA/SEC 10% NOAA/SEC Base • Dr. Christopher Balch – NOAA/SEC 5% NOAA/SEC Base • Dr. Rodney Viereck – NOAA/SEC 5% NOAA/SEC Base • Dr. Howard Singer – NOAA/SEC 5% NOAA/SEC Base • Daniel Wilkinson – NOAA/NGDC 40% GOES R3 • Dr. Paul Lotoaniu – NOAA/SEC/CIRES 50% GOES R3 • Dr. Jennifer Gannon – NOAA/SEC/CIRES 50% GOES R3 • New Postdoc – NOAA/SEC/CIRES 50% GOES R3 • New Postdoc – NOAA/SEC/CIRES 50% GOES R3 • New Postdoc – NOAA/SEC/CIRES 100% GOES R3 • Contractor(s) – NOAA/SEC 67% GOES R3 • Contractor(s) – NOAA/NGDC 67% GOES R3

2. 2. Project Summary • GOES R Space Weather Instruments • Diverse instruments supporting common forecast objectives • Observations include: • disk-integrated solar x-ray flux • disk integrated extreme ultraviolet flux • solar x-ray imaging • energetic charged particles • local geomagnetic field • Requirements similar to GOES NOP, with some changes to better focus on primary customer needs • GOES R Risk Reduction Proposal focuses on: • Supporting AWG product development risk areas • Exploring new product development candidates for AWG

3. 2. Project Summary • Solar Observing Instruments • Solar UltraViolet Imager (SUVI) • Develop a new product suite that parses multi-spectral and differenced images of the Sun (SXR & EUV) into five feature types (Flares, Active Regions, Quiet Sun, Coronal Holes, and Coronal Dimmings) • Extreme UltraViolet Sensor (EUVS) • Validate the EUVS contractor’s approach to collecting solar EUV irradiance information using a combination of observations and models to provide the level 1 data, a full EUV spectrum • Develop new and improved products from the better observations from GOES R. These new products will provide customers with new capabilities.

4. 2. Project Summary (continued) • In-situ Observing Instruments • Plasma and Energetic Particles (SEISS) • Develop a new product that specifies the electron radiation at any satellite location within the Earth’s magnetosphere • Develop a measure of GOES spacecraft charging and new products that specify the local plasma density and temperature • Magnetometer (MAG) • Develop a new product that utilizes multiple GOES spacecraft magnetometer data and global magnetic field models to specify field values at different locations and in different coordinate systems. This product will take advantage of the current GOES products by incorporating the field models into an SEC data visualization display system. • Use multiple global magnetospheric/geomagnetic field models, multiple GOES spacecraft data at different longitudes and other available spacecraft data sources in this development

5. 2. Project Summary (continued) • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data (NGDC) • Define the essential framework for public access to all GOES-R space weather datasets • Develop a prototype meeting the following goals: • Simplest feasible interface for meeting user needs • Compatibility with external systems • Display and export formats for graphics and data • Inventory summary reports and instrument status logs

6. 3. Motivation/Justification • High Level Mission Goals Supported • NOAA : Weather and Water, Commerce and Transportation • DOD: Satellite collision avoidance, Space situational awareness • NASA: Satellite collision avoidance, Astronaut safety • General Public Requirements: GPS and satellite navigation, HF communications, Airline Safety • ESDIM: Improve Data Management, Promote Modernization • Forecast Needs Supported • Reduced forecaster workload • Enhanced accuracy and consistency of products • Development of new products • Leveraging of GOES-R, POES/NPOESS and current GOES capabilities to satisfy unmet customer needs • Calibrating and validating existing GOES data and new data from GOES-R • Supporting GOES-R AWG algorithms development

7. 4. Methodology • SXR and EUV Automated Image Segmentation Algorithm (SUVI) • Review existing technologies • Identify existing automated solar feature segmentation algorithms and software • Quantitatively evaluate promising techniques by developing or porting test code and applying it to proxy data sets • Develop and evaluate new or hybrid techniques as appropriate • Develop prototypes • Develop prototype algorithm using multi-spectral images • Develop prototype algorithm using differenced images • Test and document • Test algorithms for effectiveness using proxy data and forecaster evaluations • Document the algorithm and its products for operational development via AWG

8. 4. Methodology (Continued) • EUVS • Verify GOES 13 EUVS performance and develop products • Evaluate the proposed GOES R EUVS observational parameters and identify requirements for models to fill in the unobserved wavelengths. • Compare modeled results with proxy data from research satellites. • Identify customer needs and requirements • Develop and test new products to meet the customer requirements • Electron radiation product (SEISS) • Conduct algorithm testing of electron specification at other satellite locations using data from GEO, LEO, and MEO • Optimize algorithm using assumed radial profile of phase space density • Spacecraft charging measurement and plasma density and temperature products (SEISS) • Utilize proxy GOES-R data derived from Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous measurements • Develop and test algorithms to identify spacecraft charging levels using low-energy proton data • Develop and test algorithms to calculate plasma density and temperature, utilizing the estimated spacecraft charging to adjust particle energies

9. 4. Methodology (Continued) • MAG • Evaluate global field models: • Compare multiple GOES spacecraft data at different longitudes and other data sources to global field models • Implement global field models: • Select the optimum models for the GOES locations for incorporation within current GOES data visualizing product • Integrate the coordinate transformation algorithms being developed as part of GOES-R AWG into the visualization product to provide model output consistent with the new GOES-R data • Validate and Calibrate GOES Data: • Develop techniques and algorithms to provide validation and calibration of previous and new GOES magnetometer data using the implemented global field models • Extrapolate field model values to other spacecraft locations to provide comparison of GOES data with other spacecraft data • Use these extrapolated model values in the validation and calibration of the GOES particle data

10. 4. Methodology (Continued) • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data • Design basic interface flow based on an evaluation of previous design experience and current user feedback • Evaluate latest interface software technology, i.e., AJAX – Asynchronous JavaScript and XML • Evaluate all viable data exports formats and graphical display options • Evaluate CLASS interoperability • Implement basic interface with browse visualization functionality • Implement a hybrid delivery system combining interactive product generation and direct access to prepackaged products and data • Reevaluate and revise as needed

11. 5. Summary of Previous Results • SXR and EUV Automated Image Segmentation Algorithm (SUVI) • Due to project phasing, the FY06 funded activities have a period of performance from Oct 2007 to Sept 2008 • Focus is on quantitative evaluation and validation of current operational SXI flare location algorithms (GOES 12) and is complimentary to FY07-FY09 SUVI proposed work

12. 5. Summary of Previous Results • EUVS • GOES 13 EUVS (first EUV sensor for GOES) sensor performance has been evaluated, verified, and compared with preflight calibrations and sensor performance predictions • GOES 13 EUVS observations have been calibrated and validated and compared with proxy data

13. 5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued) • SEISS • Initial capability was developed with prior GOES-R3 funding to extrapolate measurements from one GOES satellite to the locations of other satellites • Density and temperature algorithms are under development for GOES-R AWG • Background studies of radial phase space density profiles have been performed using GOES-11 electron data

14. 5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued) • MAG • Developed and implemented multiple coordinate transformation algorithms in conjunction with GOES-AWG tasks • Implemented Olson-Pfitzer 1977 global field model

15. 5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued) • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data • The creation of the prototype will benefit from GOES-R Risk Reduction projects undertaken in 2006 and 2007: • Open Archival Information System (OAIS) Reference Model submission agreements • Use case requirements • New visualization product • Concept of Operations for GOES-R Space Weather data

16. 6. Expected Outcomes • Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents (ATBDs) • If successful, several ATBDs will be created for the GOES-R AWG SWx Application Team • Data Validation • Validation and calibration of GOES magnetometer data • Validated products from GOES 13 EUVS. • Validation of EUVS instrument vendor algorithms for producing level 1 data products • Product Improvements • If successful, improvements in SUVI image segmentation accuracy and efficiency over manual visual interpretation will be demonstrated • Enhanced geomagnetic field specification • Establish the initiation of long-term EUVS data products that will be continued in the GOES-R era. • Magnetometer and SEISS algorithms for magnetosphere specification are anticipated to run operationally at the NWS/SEC, rather than in the system prime ground system. • User Interface Improvements • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data • Extensive understanding of user needs and of various ways to meet those needs

17. AWG SWx Efforts Supported by R3 Proposal

18. AWG SWx Efforts Supported by R3 Proposal

19. 7. Major Milestones • FY08 • SUVI • Complete survey and evaluation of existing algorithms/technologies • Select most promising algorithms for prototype development • EUVS • Validate the GOES 13 calibration and level 1 data • Define initial set of EUV products from GOES 13 • Determine potential GOES R EUVS Level 2 products • SEISS • Assemble multiple data sets (GEO, MEO, and LEO) and test electron extrapolation algorithm • Evaluate different techniques (simple sums versus fitting techniques) for calculating distribution function moments (density and temperature) • MAG • Implement multiple field model algorithms • Assemble multiple experimental datasets • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data • Determine viable data format, delivery and visualization options • Implement basic interface for real-time and retrospective data services

20. 7. Major Milestones (Continued) • FY09 • SUVI • Develop prototype algorithms • EUVS • Validate GOES 13 products • Acquisition of GOES R Level 1 model from instrument vendor • Develop GOES R EUVS Level 2 products • SEISS • Investigate improvements to assumed parameters in the electron extrapolation algorithm and optimize algorithm performance • Finalize density and temperature algorithms and produce ATBDs • MAG • Evaluate different models • Facilitate validation and calibration GOES data • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data • Ingest all available GOES-13 data as proxy for GOES-R. • Generate prepackaged products • Implement a hybrid interface combining interactive product generation and direct access to prepackaged products and data

21. 7. Major Milestones (Continued) • FY10 • SUVI • Complete testing and documentation of algorithms for delivery to AWG • EUVS • Test and validate GOES R Level 1 data processing model • Test and evaluate GOES R EUVS Level 2 products • SEISS • Finalize electron algorithm and produce ATBD • MAG • Produce ATBD • Integrate models into magnetometer data visualization system • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data • Evaluate CLASS interoperability • Implement data visualization section of the interface • Integrate all system features • Revaluate and revise system as needed

22. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SEC Base funding supports SEC civil servant scientist contributing to the GOES R Risk Reduction, AWG, and SWx instrument procurement • NOAA/NESDIS/NGDC will support this project through site infrastructure, IT support, and administrative overheads • GOES R AWG budget for FY07-FY09 is from AWG FY07 proposal. FY10 budget is escalated by 5%.

23. 9. Expected Purchase Items (SEC) • FY07 • (308K): Grant CIRES for 4 people at 75% time from May 07 to Apr 08 • EXIS scientist/developer at 100% • SUVI scientist/developer at 100% • MAG scientist/developer at 50% • SEISS scientist/developer at 50% • (77K): SEC Overhead for facilities support from May 07 to Apr 08 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc. • FY08 • (312K): Grant CIRES for 4 people at 75% time from May 08 to Apr 09 • EXIS scientist/developer at 75% • SUVI scientist/developer at 75% • MAG scientist/developer at 75% • SEISS scientist/developer at 75% • (78K): SEC Overhead for facilities support from May 08 to Apr 09 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc. • FY09 • (347K): Grant CIRES for 4 people at 75% time from May 09 to Apr 10 • EXIS scientist/developer at 75% • SUVI scientist/developer at 75% • MAG scientist/developer at 75% • SEISS scientist/developer at 75% • (97K): SEC Overhead for facilities support from May 09 to Apr 10 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc. • FY10 • (364K): Grant CIRES for 4 people at 75% time from May 10 to Apr 11 • EXIS scientist/developer at 75% • SUVI scientist/developer at 75% • MAG scientist/developer at 75% • SEISS scientist/developer at 75% • (102K): SEC Overhead for facilities support from May 10 to Apr 11 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc.

24. 9. Expected Purchase Items (NGDC) • FY07 • (55K): NGDC staff support • FY08 • (60K): NGDC staff support • FY09 • (106K): NGDC staff support • FY10 • (136K): NGDC staff support