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Understanding Magnetosphere Dynamics: Key Issues and Forecasting Strategies

This report addresses vital questions surrounding forecasts in magnetosphere dynamics and the potential hemispheric differences during solstices. It explores probabilistic forecasts and their effectiveness, examining the impact of ring current saturation on energetic particle flux and the relationship between VWz and magnetospheric coupling. It also investigates the influence of upstream Mach number on magnetic fields observed during magnetosheath crossings and presents projects aimed at equalizing potential through innovative approaches. Insights from DMSP flights and storm behavior are highlighted to enhance forecast accuracy.

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Understanding Magnetosphere Dynamics: Key Issues and Forecasting Strategies

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Working Group 4 “We predict Success”

  2. Biggest Issues • Forecasts “R” Us - what needs to be forecasted? • Probabalistic forecasts - Can we give the forecasters an edge?

  3. Some questions • MHD codes have large potential difference between hemispheres during solstices. How does real magnetosphere deal with this? Any evidence to support the existance of such a potential difference? • Polar cap saturation vs. no saturation in the ring current • Ring current dependence of saturation - does big ring current change saturation potential • Better understanding of equinoctal effects in coupling VBz to magnetosphere - geometric or energy transfer • Can we distinguish between large transfer constant (a) and small a events ? • Does energetic particle flux depend on a or on other factors? • Role of upstream Mach number

  4. Some projects • Look at AIME runs for summer and winter. Invesitgate ideas for equalizing potential (differential conductivity modification, shunting of current from dark to lit hemisphere) • Ring current dependence of saturation - look at DMSP flights during isolated storms and series of storms • Studies of a - integrate VBz and RC injection for each storm, get geoeffectiveness, look at influence of various properties, storm history, behavior of energetic electrons • Role of upstream Mach number in magnetosheath field seen by GOES/AMPTE CCE during magnetosheath crossings

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