THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

1. THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Climate Community 31 December 2005 Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission:to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

2. THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED • CTB Role • Programmatic and Science Priorities • 1st CTB Annual Meeting • SAB Recommendations / CTB Actions

3. CTB ROLE What does the CTB bring that’s new? • A Focus on Transition • Develop guidelines for smooth transitions • A Means of Engagement • Research, Operations and Applications communities • A Mechanism for Distribution of Climate Information

4. A FOCUS ON TRANSITION In order to accelerate improvements in NOAA climate forecasts and applications, the CTB must define a process to: • Identify and communicate the scope of responsibilities for the Research (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A) communities.   • Identify and delineate different types of transition: • R2O: define where O picks up responsibility, and when a "hand-off" from R occurs. • O2A: define where A picks up responsibility, and when a “hand-off” from O occurs. • R2A: define where A picks up responsibility, and when a “hand-off” from R occurs. • Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure smooth transitions.

5. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecasts, founded on CTB-based innovation, on- going Re-analysis, CFS, multi-model ensembles and user-feedback. 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse USER community 2 R2O NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infra-structure for the transition process N C E P 1 R&D Community CTB CPC 3 EMC CFS OPERATIONS 4 O2A User Community 5

6. RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINES • The path to implementation of changes in the NCEP operational climate model suite consists of the following steps: • Model development and refinement • Preliminary assessment • Calibration (e.g. hindcasts) • Interface with operations • Final skill assessment • Parallel tests • Approval • The roles of the host (research) institution and the operational center must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. • Resources are needed for both the research and operations communities to ensure smooth transitions.

7. CPC OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINES • The path to implementation of operational tools in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists of the following steps: • Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts) • Assigning weights to each tool; • Systematic error correction • Specific output variables (T2m & precip for US; SST & Z500 for global) • Available in real-time • The roles of the operational center and applications community must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. • Resources are needed for both the operations and applications communities • Need to identify and refine steps for other types of O2A • Delivering models and data to the community; NOMADS Server • Regional applications (energy, agriculture, H2O resources, fire Wx)

8. A MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT • Collaboration with the climate community is key: • Meeting customer demands for climate information. • Participate in national & regional meetings that bring producers and users together. • Recognize limitations. Work with intermediaries (e.g. RISA’s, RCC’s, NWS/CSD). • Ask users what they need? Develop regionally specific forecasts and applications. • Determine economic value of climate forecasts and products. • Enhance resources consistent with CTB Programmatic and Science Priorities • Collaborative transition projects (AO’s). • Links to cooperative institutes (e.g. CICS, JCSDA), international programs (e.g. CLIVAR, GEWEX), and other agencies (e.g. NASA, USDA, DOE). • Invite broad participation on CTB boards and teams.

9. PROGRAMMATIC PRIORITIES AND SCIENCEPRIORITIES The CTB management has been working with NCEP management to establish a prioritized short list of high level institutional priorities for accelerated transition of science into operations (Programmatic Priorities). The CTB Management is working with its CST and Transition Project Team leaders) to identify and articulate specific scientific priority areas (Science Priorities) needed to accomplish the Programmatic Priorities. These form the basis of a Science and Implementation Plan (distinct from the CTB Management Operating Plan). The SIP will be vetted with the SAB and the broader scientific community over the next several months.

10. PROGRAMMATIC AND SCIENCE PRIORITIES NOAA Climate Forecast System Improvements (CFS n+1, n+2,…) Land & ocean analyses & models; resolution; physics; diagnostics Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System Consolidation & verification of statistical & 1-tier dynamical models CFS, GFDL, NASA-GEOS, NCAR-CCSM, other, ensembles and (25-yr) hindcasts Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System Preparation for new reanalysis (data mining; analysis system for climate) Verification, diagnostics, global monitoring & “nowcasting” Development of operational statistical models Regional Applications Drought/NIDIS, energy, agriculture, water resources, fire weather Extreme events Attribution – climate change

11. NOAA CFS IMPROVEMENTS • Science Priorities The possible components of CFS (n+1) are coming into focus: • Land: Couple Noah LSM to CFS • Ocean: MOM4 • Resolution: T126 • Physics: Convective parameterization; Multi-physics ensemble • CTB Role: • Comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of potential future changes to CFS/GFS prior to implementation. • Concerted effort to distribute CFS/GFS data sets to the community. • Caveat: Reduce emphasis on evaluation of older versions of the CFS/GFS

12. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM • NOAA/CTB is a natural lead to develop the strategy. • CTB Role: • Coordinate "National" models that contribute to accelerated improvements in ISI climate prediction and projections, both in real-time products and with research that contributes to the CCSP and IPCC. “National” models are global ocean-atmosphere coupled models: • NCEP/CFS • GFDL/CM2 • NASA/GEOS 5 • NSF/CCSM • Coordinate with any of several Multi-Model projects around the world (e.g. European Euro-SIP and the Asian APCC). • The roles and responsibilities of the host institutions and the operational center(s) must be clearly spelled out, commensurate with resources, to ensure smooth transitions.

13. STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES (1) COLA – CTB Collaboration on CFS and NCAR / CCSM Background: COLA installed CFS (n) on the NCAR computer Proposal: NCEP - COLA intercomparison of CFS and NCAR/CCSM simulations to accelerate CFS (n+1) and MM ensemble prediction system. - 80-90 years of NCAR computer time for CFS @ T126 (Climate Simulation Lab) (2) NASA-CTB Collaboration on CFS (n+1) and GEOS Background: AO for Columbia Supercomputer resources Proposal: NCEP - NASA intercomparison of CFS and NASA/GEOS simulations to accelerate CFS (n+1). Focus on extreme events.

14. ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM • GEOSS will deliver unprecedented oceanic, atmospheric and land surface obs. • Data assimilation systems have been developed for Wx modeling and analysis. • Question: How should the enhanced observations from GEOSS be analyzed? Answer: Develop an analysis system for “climate”. • CTB Role • Promote and coordinate synthesis of ongoing reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies and internationally. • Benefits: leverage CTB infrastructure (e.g. SAB, OB, computer) • Management: Project Manager for Interagency Coordination; Program Manager

15. REGIONAL APPLICATIONS(EXAMPLE: HYDROLOGIC APPLICATIONS) Proposal: • Meld key initiatives of the GAPP Core Project into the CTB and designate the GAPP Core Project and its external R&D collaborators as a CPT for Land on the CTB Science Priorities: • Examine Noah LSM and GLDAS impacts on coupled CFS seasonal forecasts (which also addresses issues of land memory impacts in CFS in general); • Provide objective input for operational Drought Monitor and Outlooks; • Develop a Drought Early Warning System in support of NIDIS; • Provide Regional Climate Model (RCM) seasonal forecasts • Provide Multi-Model Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasts; • Benefits: • Consistent with NWS Integrated Water Science Plan

16. CTB FRAMEWORK • Infrastructure • Computing Support (1/3rd NOAA “Red” Research Computer) • System and Science Support Teams (models, data, diagnostics) • Contractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators • Management and Administrative Staff • Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant • Transition Projects • Base (internally) Funded • Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 2 years or less • FTE’s reallocated from NCEP and other line offices • Announcements of Opportunity • Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years • Projects are reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues • NOAA or external lead PIs • Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)

17. CURRENT CTB RESOURCES • NCEP Contributions • Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer) • 23 Redirected FTEs • Management Team – 0.5 (CPC) & 0.25 (EMC) & 0.25 (CPC) • System Support Team (data, software) – 4 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC) • Science Support (Transition Project Teams) – 16 (CPC) & 4 (EMC) • NOAA Climate Program Office • Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure (System Support TA in FY05, FY06); Additional funding for near term and competitive transition projects. • CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects (FY06+)

18. SAB Recommendations(Written Report from 1st CTB Annual Meeting) • Science Priorities: • Focus the science strategy as a function of resources ($$$, computing). • Prepare separate Science & Implementation, and Management Operations plans. • (2) Community Involvement • Increase participation in large annual meetings & topical workshops. • Use intermediaries (e.g. NWS CSD) to bridge research/operations & applications. • Clarify CTB proposal solicitations • (3) Model Output Access and Distribution • Develop hardware/software tools and data policy for disseminating climate information. • Work with established data distribution centers. • (4) SAB Structure and Meetings • Hold a dedicated annual review meeting. • Expand SAB membership (international and private sector).

19. The CTB “Message” • The NOAA CTB will: • Enhance cooperative partnerships between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader external research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility that facilitates smooth transitions. • Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction. • Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts, products and applications. • Increase the range and scope of regional applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making by end users.