Climate Change and Global Health

1. Climate Change and Global Health Øjvind Lidegaard Professor Dept. Obstetrics & Gynaecology Rigshospitalet University of Copenhagen

2. United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change Aim is to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions… “…at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

3. Climate change and global health Four steps Realize how profound the anthropogenic climate changes are Understand the impact of these changes on global health Take advantage of the different roles we have as health professionals Act

4. Earth development 4,600 My My before present 4600 3500 3000 First life 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Life on land 0 IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

5. Earth development 4,600 My My before present 4600 400 trees 3500 350 fish 3000 First life 300 first ice 2500 250 reptiles 2000 200 dinosaurs 1500 150 mammals 1000 100 flowers 500 Life on land 50 ice again 0 0 Deep ocean drills IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

6. Earth development 4,600 My My 1000 years . 4600 400 trees 3500 350 fish 700 3000 First life 300 first ice 600 2500 250 reptiles 500 Homo erectus 2000 200 dinosaurs 400 1500 150 mammals 300 1000 100 flowers 200 500 Life on land 50 ice again 100 Homo sapiens 0 0 0 Deep ocean drills Ice cores IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

7. CO2 in atmosphere through last 400 My Eon P h a n e r o z o i c Paleozoic Mesozoic Cenozoic Era Ice present Ice present ppm Extinction event Dinosaurs Mammals Reptiles Flowers Trees Fish My www.stratigraphy.org

8. CO2 in atmosphere through last 50 My C E N O Z O I C E R A Kænozoikum ppm Paleogene period (65-23 My BP) Neogene (23 My - now) Antarctic glaciation Ice free worldSea level 80 mabove present Development in mammals My IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

9. Paleogene (35 My BP)

10. CO2 in atmosphere through last 50 My C E N O Z O I C E R A Kænozoikum ppm Paleogene period (65-23 My BP) Neogene (23 My - now) Antarctic glaciation Ice free worldSea level 80 mabove present Development in mammals My IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

11. CO2 in atmosphere through last 5 My N E O G E N E P E R I O D ppm Pliocene epoch (5.4-1.8 My BP) Pleistocene (1.8-0.01) Last time CO2 was at the same high as today. At that time sea level was 20-30 m above present level, and Tp. was 3.5oC higher My IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

12. Pliocene (4 My BP)

13. CO2 in atmosphere through last 5 My N E O G E N E P E R I O D ppm Pliocene epoch (5.4-1.8 My BP) Pleistocene (1.8-0.01) Last time CO2 was at the same high as today. At that time sea level was 20-30 m above present level, and Tp. was 3.5oC higher My IPCC. Assessment report 4, 2007, The Physical Science Basis

14. CO2 and temperature through last 640,000 years 5oC

15. Holocene

16. Holocene

17. Holocene

18. CO2 and sea level at equilibrium CO2 ppm Sea level m Inter glacial period Last glacial period Pre in- dustrial period Stabilisation of CO2 Pleistocene Antarctic glaciation Last time CO2 was 385 ppm Holocene Paleogene Pliocene At equilibrium Thousand years before present

19. Climate and health Health threads by climate changes are primarily a consequence of • Damages after hurricanes and cyclones • Homelessness for millions after floods • Climate refugees, unsustainable migration • Disintegration of civil infrastructures • Shortage of drinking water • Starvation • Expanding areas of vector-borne diseases

20. Climate and health Climate change Health consequence Temperature rise Tainted food, infections Sea level rise, flood Injuries, infections homelessness mental disorders, cholera More rainfall, flood do Less rainfall, Drought, reduced agrarian yield, starvation Changed ocean Depletion of fish stocks streams New fish stocks McMichael et al. Lancet 2006; 367: 859-69

21. Commitment of health professionals Health professionals have three roles • They are members of strong professional international networks such as WMA. • They are professional health managers • They are citizens as all other citizens What can and what should we expect from health professionals in their three roles?

22. Commitment of health professionals Professional networks • Information about short- and long term health impact of climate change • Stressing that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century • Require immediate mitigation initiatives • Initiate research in health consequences of climate change Costello et al. Lancet 2009; 373: 1693-1733

23. Commitment of health professionals Health advisors • Information about short- and long term health impact of climate change • Focusing on initiatives which improve public health and global climate at the same time (less use of fossil fuel, diet changes, physical activity) • Disclose personal views on climate change Costello et al. Lancet 2009; 373: 1693-1733

24. Commitment of health professionals Health advisors (cont) • Stress the urgency of political and personal actions • Professional initiatives of establishing national networks on climate change and health • Adapt your institutions to low-energy buildings • Video conferences Costello et al. Lancet 2009; 373: 1693-1733

25. Commitment of health professionals As member of the general society • Limiting long distance flights • Reduce private fossil fuel consumption • Reduce energy consumption (50%) • Combine physical activity with personal transportation (e.g. bicycle transportation) • Learn your children to behave responsible • Involvement in local initiatives Costello et al. Lancet 2009; 373: 1693-1733

26. Which CO2 future? 485 ppm Paleogene 385 ppm Pliocene 285 ppm Holocene

27. Thank you www.Lidegaard.dk / slides