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  1. Nansen Initiative Regional ConsultationNatural Hazards, Climate Change and Cross-Border Displacement in the Greater Horn of Africa: Protecting People on the Move21-23 May 2014, The Boma HotelBellevue, Off Mombasa Road, Red Cross Road, Nairobi, KenyaCLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTERS, ADAPTATION AND HUMAN MOBILITY IN AFRICA

  2. Prof.Dr. Oliver C. RuppelCoordinating Lead Author Chapter 22 (Africa), 5th Assessment Report, Working Group II, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)_________________Director: The Development and Rule of Law Programme, Faculty of Law, University of Stellenbosch, South AfricaIMPACTS AND RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA

  3. Contents 1. IPCC AR5 (Focus WGII) 2. Climate change disasters, adaptation and key risks for Africa 3. Climate change and human mobility

  4. CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

  5. IPCC (WMO & UNEP)AR5 CLIMATE CHANGE 2013/2014 WG I Contribution: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis WG II Contribution: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability WG III Contribution: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change

  6. Evidence of warming over land regions across Africahas increased (high confidence) Pessimistic scenario with rising emissions Optimistic scenario with drastic emission reduction

  7. Risk from changing climate comes from • vulnerability (lack of preparedness) • exposure (people or assets in harm’s way) • hazards (triggering climate events or trends) Each of these three components can be a target for smart actions to decrease risk

  8. IMPACTS SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSES CLIMATE Vulnerability NaturalVariability SocioeconomicPathways RISK Hazards Adaptation and Mitigation Actions AnthropogenicClimate Change Governance Exposure EMISSIONSand Land-use Change

  9. IPCC SREX REPORT From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in developingcountries

  10. Key Risks: Africa

  11. Prof. Dr. Oliver C. Ruppel Professor of Law, Faculty of Law, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa Director: The Development and Rule of Law Programme [DROP] E-mail:      ruppel@sun.ac.za Website:   http://drop.sun.ac.za/ 

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