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The Third Level of Analysis

The Third Level of Analysis. The System, or War Krieg ist die Fortsetzung der Politik mit anderen Mitteln (Clausewitz). An explanation of WWI. Germany was born too late Germany was born encircled

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The Third Level of Analysis

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  1. The Third Level of Analysis The System, or War Krieg ist die Fortsetzung der Politik mit anderen Mitteln (Clausewitz)

  2. An explanation of WWI • Germany was born too late • Germany was born encircled • Germany’s relative power was gaining on Britain but falling behind Russia (Power Transition Theory) • A rising land power will challenge a declining sea power • In constructing Germany, the old buffer states were eliminated from the system (Bavaria, Schlesweig-Holstein, Baden, Hanover, Palatinate)

  3. A system is composed of • Structure • Interacting units

  4. Structure • Principles by which subunits are ordered • Specification of functions • Distribution of capabilities

  5. Polarity • Unipolar • Unipolar with supportership • Bipolar • Tripolar • Multipolar

  6. Measuring power • Military (national power) • Political (reputation for national power) • Economic • Financial • Fiscal • Demographic • Technological/scientific • Logistical • “Soft Power” • Key resources • Geographic corrections

  7. Assumptions of systemic approaches • States behave similarly to given stimuli • External compulsion exists in the environment • Constant motivation (which may be security-maximization, interest-maximization) • Condition of anarchy [the lack of a sovereign arbiter to make and enforce agreements] • Threats and opportunities exist • States may vary but only their place and capabilities in the system matter. Vulnerability and power are unevenly distributed.

  8. Examples of Theories • Balance of Power • Interdependence / Dependencia • World Systems Theory • Hegemonic Stability Theory • Neorealism • Neoliberal institutionalism

  9. Assumptions of BoP • Egoistic actors seek to survive • Vigilance – sensitivity to changes in the distribution of capabilities • Mobility of action – states are able to respond quickly and decisively to changes in the BoP • States must oppose the stronger (or more threatening) coalition • States must be able to project power • War is a legitimate tool of statecraft

  10. Assumptions of BoP • No alliance handicaps • Ideological barriers • Prior disputes are irrelevant • Ethnic/religious affiliations • States pursue moderate war aims • Today’s ally may be tomorrow’s enemy • Proportional aggrandizement

  11. Balance of Power A system in which the basic assumption is that states are not to be trusted with inordinate power which is a danger to all states and that the antidote to excessive power is power and that when any state is thought to be gaining inordinate power other states recognize this, see it as a threat to their security, take measures to confront it and preserve the power of the great powers. Threat inheres in inordinate power. Power is used to combat power

  12. Responses to a threat • Balance • Bandwagon • Neutrality (Distance, Hide) • Appeasement (Engagement) • Buck-pass • Non-Alignment • Do Nothing

  13. Concert of Europe (1815-54) Alexander Pope: “Now Europe’s balanc’d, neither side prevails, For nothing’s left in either of the Scales”

  14. Why was it created? • Exhaustion • Balance of power • Domestic polities opposed to war • Self-restraint of statesmen • Standardize diplomatic procedures

  15. How did it operate? • GPs made decisions for lesser states • Only the policies of the five GPs (UK, Russia, France, Prussia, Austria) could wreck the system • GP unity on key issues • Barrier against unilateral action • Borders to be changed by diplomatic conference • Essential members to be protected • GPs must not be humiliated • Manage rather than eradicate international dissension

  16. Did it work? • For 39 years no GP wars • Conferences were held at times of crisis. Revisionists were compensated but with something other than that they demanded. • Conflicts among other states continued • Conflicts in the periphery continued • Non-military competition occurred

  17. Classical Realism • States seek to maximize interests (defined as national power) • Zero-sum game • States expand when they can • Conquest pays • Interdependence leads to conflicts as states seek autonomy

  18. Liberalism • States seek to maximize wealth • Positive-sum game • Focused on absolute gains • Multi-centric: state, IGO, NGO, TNC • The “I” terms matter: ideas, institutions, individuals, interdependence, interactions, ideologies, idealism, integration, issue areas • Conquest doesn’t pay • Interdependence leads to peace • Learning is possible (proactive adaptation)

  19. Neorealism • States seek to maximize security • Zero-sum game • Avoid relative losses • Conquest doesn’t always pay; depends on relative gains

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